Alliance Resources is about $18.50 yielding 14% (43% pay-out ratio) PE 3.8x. November 6, 2023 price on ex-div date: $24.
ARLP is the largest coal producer in the eastern United States which invested another $110 million in 2023 in their oil and gas royalties portfolio
and paid down their long-term debt by $85 million in the third quarter to a balance of about $167 million v. free cash flow in 2022 of $980 million.
In their September, 2023, the CEO announced the intention of Alliance to pay off its entire debt by the end of 2024.
2023 was a record year for global coal consumption led by China and India. Germany and Japan no longer import their coal from Russia but from
Australia and the United States.
Most countries have responded to Climate Czar John Kerry thusly: "Ameria got ric h using fossil fuels and we intend to get rich using fossil fuels.
So come back in 75 years when we are rich and we will talk about climate change."
ARLP signs long-term contracts with its customers and sells about 36 million tons per year. Proven reserves are 580 million tons and indicated
reserves 1.1 billion tons in six states.
Alliance Resources Partners ARLP
Petrobras
Petrobras PBR. $17.70, yield 16% (pay-out ratio 35% in last quarter) PE 4.5x
After the February, 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, BARRON's published a three page article about how emerging markets would benefit from
the invasion. The focus of the article was on Brazil and state-controlled energy producer, Petrobras.
After the invasion of Ukraine, European oil companies left Russia and sought joint ventures offshore Brazil and offshore Africa with Petrobras:
BP, Total Energy, Eni, Repsol, Quatar Energy and Equinor.
The re-lection of leftist President Lula in Brazil gave investors worries in 2022 about what Lula might do to Petrobras. But the new CEO is
now receiving international accolades for his leadership and Brazil, after all, receives 10% of their government revenues from Petrobras.
One issue has been renewables and Petrobras spends 15% of their FCF on renewables, while paying out 40% of FCF for their dividend.
The current price has risen from $9.50 in December, 2022 to $17.70 now, forward yield 16% (35% pay-out rate in last quarter), PE 4.5x.
Petrobras has also been paying down their large debt from $52 billion now to about $40 billion. It is still quite high but their FCF supports
it ambly. Management targets producing 5.9 milion bod by 2027, up from 3.5 million bod in 2022. Management has stated confidently
that the world will need fossil fuels for at least the next 30 years.
BARRON's noted in 2022 that the valuation gap between emerging markets and the S&P 500 was then at its widest in 20 years.
Market historians will remember that following the Tech Crash of 2000 to 2002 (with lower interest rates and falling US dollar),
Emerging Markets lead the global market with double digits return from 2003 to 2006. Dr. Mark Mobius, formerly John Templeton
right-hand man, thinks India is the value opportunity that will lead from its current valuation. China has alot more problems than
massive debt, viz., there demographic crisis stemming from their 1980 "one child" policy. Demographers project by the end of the
century China's population will 600 million people less, about 800 million and the average age will be significantly higher.
After the February, 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, BARRON's published a three page article about how emerging markets would benefit from
the invasion. The focus of the article was on Brazil and state-controlled energy producer, Petrobras.
After the invasion of Ukraine, European oil companies left Russia and sought joint ventures offshore Brazil and offshore Africa with Petrobras:
BP, Total Energy, Eni, Repsol, Quatar Energy and Equinor.
The re-lection of leftist President Lula in Brazil gave investors worries in 2022 about what Lula might do to Petrobras. But the new CEO is
now receiving international accolades for his leadership and Brazil, after all, receives 10% of their government revenues from Petrobras.
One issue has been renewables and Petrobras spends 15% of their FCF on renewables, while paying out 40% of FCF for their dividend.
The current price has risen from $9.50 in December, 2022 to $17.70 now, forward yield 16% (35% pay-out rate in last quarter), PE 4.5x.
Petrobras has also been paying down their large debt from $52 billion now to about $40 billion. It is still quite high but their FCF supports
it ambly. Management targets producing 5.9 milion bod by 2027, up from 3.5 million bod in 2022. Management has stated confidently
that the world will need fossil fuels for at least the next 30 years.
BARRON's noted in 2022 that the valuation gap between emerging markets and the S&P 500 was then at its widest in 20 years.
Market historians will remember that following the Tech Crash of 2000 to 2002 (with lower interest rates and falling US dollar),
Emerging Markets lead the global market with double digits return from 2003 to 2006. Dr. Mark Mobius, formerly John Templeton
right-hand man, thinks India is the value opportunity that will lead from its current valuation. China has alot more problems than
massive debt, viz., there demographic crisis stemming from their 1980 "one child" policy. Demographers project by the end of the
century China's population will 600 million people less, about 800 million and the average age will be significantly higher.