Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending April 19, 2024
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.9 million barrels per day during the week ending April 19, 2024, which was 42 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 88.5% of their operable capacity last week. < I still don't think this is high enough to keep up with demand for transportation fuels in the U.S. that spike up each summer.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.1 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.8 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.5 million barrels per day last week, increased by 36 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.5 million barrels per day, slightly more than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 780 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 138 thousand barrels per day.
Inventories: Focus on the deficits to the 5-year average. The "Big Three" are all below normal for this time of year.
> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 453.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels from last week and are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased, while blending components inventories decreased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels last week and are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels from last week and are 14% above the five year average for this time of year. < Demand for U.S. NGLs is MUCH HIGHER than it was a year ago because of the increase in export capacity, so higher inventories of NGLs are justified and required to serve a much larger market.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.8 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.8 million barrels a day, up by 0.1% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.7 million barrels a day, down by 3.7% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.4 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 11.6% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 2.4% compared with the same four-week period last year.
EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report - Apr 24
EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report - Apr 24
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report - Apr 24
Interesting comments from HFI Research
EIA oil storage report was fairly bullish today with the crude draw of 6.4 million bbls outpacing our forecast of -4.33 million bbls. More importantly in these weekly reports, we watch just how accurate we are at estimating US crude production. And so far, things are looking good.
Looking at our real-time US oil production data, we saw a brief spike in implied US oil production in March. Considering that the weather fully normalized in the 2nd half of February and into March, US shale oil producers likely brought back production to full capacity by early March and sold off stored-up inventory. This likely caused a dislocation in our modified adjustment, which showed a false bump higher in production.
Why do we say that it was temporary? Well, if you look at the latest reading, the implied US oil production figure is back down to ~13 million b/d. < So, U.S. oil production is BELOW pre-pandemic peak of ~13.3 million bpd.
Another good way for readers to gauge just how accurate we are on US oil production is by looking at our US weekly crude storage estimate figure vs the EIA. If our draw is smaller than what EIA reports, then it implies a lower US oil production figure than we estimated. If our draw is larger than what EIA reports, then it implies a higher US oil production figure. In essence, anytime the EIA comes in more bearish than our estimate, it implies a higher production figure, and vice versa.
Alarming Trend...
At some point over the next 18 months, oil analysts will have to change US shale oil into US shale NGL oil. < This is significant.
Oil weighting in US shale oil producers is dropping at an alarming rate as Permian players become gassier and gassier. This is not a surprise to anyone who's tracked some of the best producers in the Permian. Diamondback Energy is a great example of this with oil weighting dropping from 74% in 2017 to 59% in 2023. The trend going forward will be a further decline in oil weighting, while both the NGL and natural gas components increase.
---------------------------
This is part of The Big Paradigm Shift that is just starting to take root among the Wall Street Gang. Our most important oil-based transportation fuels (gasoline, diesel and jet fuel) can only be made from "black oil". Diesel cannot be made from the ultra-light oil that comes from most shale wells.
EIA oil storage report was fairly bullish today with the crude draw of 6.4 million bbls outpacing our forecast of -4.33 million bbls. More importantly in these weekly reports, we watch just how accurate we are at estimating US crude production. And so far, things are looking good.
Looking at our real-time US oil production data, we saw a brief spike in implied US oil production in March. Considering that the weather fully normalized in the 2nd half of February and into March, US shale oil producers likely brought back production to full capacity by early March and sold off stored-up inventory. This likely caused a dislocation in our modified adjustment, which showed a false bump higher in production.
Why do we say that it was temporary? Well, if you look at the latest reading, the implied US oil production figure is back down to ~13 million b/d. < So, U.S. oil production is BELOW pre-pandemic peak of ~13.3 million bpd.
Another good way for readers to gauge just how accurate we are on US oil production is by looking at our US weekly crude storage estimate figure vs the EIA. If our draw is smaller than what EIA reports, then it implies a lower US oil production figure than we estimated. If our draw is larger than what EIA reports, then it implies a higher US oil production figure. In essence, anytime the EIA comes in more bearish than our estimate, it implies a higher production figure, and vice versa.
Alarming Trend...
At some point over the next 18 months, oil analysts will have to change US shale oil into US shale NGL oil. < This is significant.
Oil weighting in US shale oil producers is dropping at an alarming rate as Permian players become gassier and gassier. This is not a surprise to anyone who's tracked some of the best producers in the Permian. Diamondback Energy is a great example of this with oil weighting dropping from 74% in 2017 to 59% in 2023. The trend going forward will be a further decline in oil weighting, while both the NGL and natural gas components increase.
---------------------------
This is part of The Big Paradigm Shift that is just starting to take root among the Wall Street Gang. Our most important oil-based transportation fuels (gasoline, diesel and jet fuel) can only be made from "black oil". Diesel cannot be made from the ultra-light oil that comes from most shale wells.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report - Apr 24
Demand seems a bit weak. I watch the 4-week average more closely than the weekly number. Diesel is especially week. A weakening economy would explain it, but supposedly the economy is strong. I have my doubts about that. I'm glad production is not increasing.