VNR BBEP LINE weakness???
VNR BBEP LINE weakness???
Thoughts on the down draft after earnings with yield going up as they drop
Re: VNR BBEP LINE weakness???
i don't know about line and bbep, but i think the vnr weakness is a buying opportunity based on their 2014 goals.
selloff apparently due to missed revs. but that is in the rear view mirror.
from seeking alpha yesterday---
Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC misses on revenue • 5:13 PM
Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC (VNR): Q4 EPS of $0.14
Revenue of $108.3M (+31.5% Y/Y) misses by $17.04M.
selloff apparently due to missed revs. but that is in the rear view mirror.
from seeking alpha yesterday---
Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC misses on revenue • 5:13 PM
Vanguard Natural Resources, LLC (VNR): Q4 EPS of $0.14
Revenue of $108.3M (+31.5% Y/Y) misses by $17.04M.
Re: VNR BBEP LINE weakness???
Stifel reiterates Buy on BBEP - $21PT --
4Q Light On Higher Costs; Reiterate Buy
4Q13 Summary
BBEP reported 4Q adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow of $109 million
and $55 million, 9% and 21% below our estimates, respectively. This miss was
primarily driven by higher than expected per unit LOE (20%), interest expense
(8%), and maintenance capex (5%), which caused the distribution coverage ratio
of 0.94x to miss our estimate (-21%). Production was in line at 33.54 MBoe/d (62%
liquids, up from 45% in 4Q12) and the composite realized price averaged $63.60,
2% below our forecast (Figure 1). The company increased its 4Q13 distribution
1.05% Q/Q to $0.4926, or $1.97 annually, and the distribution has grown 4.8% y/y.
Initial 2014 Capital Budget and Guidance Provided
The company's 2014 capital budget equals $335 million ($125 million
maintenance), targeting oil rich opportunities primarily in Texas, California, and
Oklahoma. This capital budget represents the highest budget in the company's
25-year history and is a 10% increase y/y.
Management provided FY14 guidance, causing us to increase our FY14
production (6%) and realized price (1%), partially offset by an increase in our per
unit LOE (8%) and interest expense (6%) estimates. As a result, we are slightly
increasing our adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow (1%). The company is
targeting $600 million of acquisitions completed in 2014, in line with our previous
estimate.
We project that BBEP's distribution coverage ratio in 2014 and 2015 will average
1.13x and 1.16x, respectively, and that the company will increase its distribution
4.1% and 4.5% y/y. The company is expected to continue to increase its liquids
mix as liquids production ramps to 67% in 2014 (59% oil, 8% NGLs), up
significantly from 2013 (57% liquids) and 2012 (44% liquids).
Ample Borrowing Capacity, ATM In Place
Currently, BBEP has only $747mm drawn on its $1.5B borrowing base. Earlier in
2014, BBEP filed a shelf registration for a common equity ATM program, which
should opportunistically allow the company to access the equity market.
Reiterate Buy
We believe continued operational success stemming from its oil-focused capital
budget, coupled with potential future acquisitions, will continue to drive multiple
expansion. As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and target price of $21/unit.
4Q Light On Higher Costs; Reiterate Buy
4Q13 Summary
BBEP reported 4Q adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow of $109 million
and $55 million, 9% and 21% below our estimates, respectively. This miss was
primarily driven by higher than expected per unit LOE (20%), interest expense
(8%), and maintenance capex (5%), which caused the distribution coverage ratio
of 0.94x to miss our estimate (-21%). Production was in line at 33.54 MBoe/d (62%
liquids, up from 45% in 4Q12) and the composite realized price averaged $63.60,
2% below our forecast (Figure 1). The company increased its 4Q13 distribution
1.05% Q/Q to $0.4926, or $1.97 annually, and the distribution has grown 4.8% y/y.
Initial 2014 Capital Budget and Guidance Provided
The company's 2014 capital budget equals $335 million ($125 million
maintenance), targeting oil rich opportunities primarily in Texas, California, and
Oklahoma. This capital budget represents the highest budget in the company's
25-year history and is a 10% increase y/y.
Management provided FY14 guidance, causing us to increase our FY14
production (6%) and realized price (1%), partially offset by an increase in our per
unit LOE (8%) and interest expense (6%) estimates. As a result, we are slightly
increasing our adjusted EBITDA and distributable cash flow (1%). The company is
targeting $600 million of acquisitions completed in 2014, in line with our previous
estimate.
We project that BBEP's distribution coverage ratio in 2014 and 2015 will average
1.13x and 1.16x, respectively, and that the company will increase its distribution
4.1% and 4.5% y/y. The company is expected to continue to increase its liquids
mix as liquids production ramps to 67% in 2014 (59% oil, 8% NGLs), up
significantly from 2013 (57% liquids) and 2012 (44% liquids).
Ample Borrowing Capacity, ATM In Place
Currently, BBEP has only $747mm drawn on its $1.5B borrowing base. Earlier in
2014, BBEP filed a shelf registration for a common equity ATM program, which
should opportunistically allow the company to access the equity market.
Reiterate Buy
We believe continued operational success stemming from its oil-focused capital
budget, coupled with potential future acquisitions, will continue to drive multiple
expansion. As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and target price of $21/unit.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group