I have seen estimates that demand for U.S. natural gas will increase by 15 to 18 BCF per day from 2017 to 2020. That is HUGE demand growth.
In addition to exports, there is significant growth coming from the petrochemical industry. A major LNG export facility is coming on-line within weeks. Demand from 2017 to 2018 alone is expected to increase by 6 BCF per day. That is a big increase.
Dry gas production in the U.S.
2015 = 74.135 BCF per day
2016 = 72.293 BCF per day
2017 January through September = 72.543 BCF per day
The numbers above are based on actual state reports (not the weekly EIA "estimates").
BTW there is going to be a VERY BIG increase in weather related demand for gas during the two week period December 23 to January 6.
See daily weather update at: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/
I grew up in St. Louis and I remember walking way out on the ice on the Mississippi River north of St. Louis. We had a cabin on the Illinois River about 70 miles north (near Hardin, IL). One year the river froze solid. This is a river large enough for barge traffic. Based on the weather forecast above, folks living in Hardin may be able to walk across the river on January 10.
2018 prospects for LNG heat up. E&E News.
2018 could be a watershed year for U.S. natural gas exports. U.S. liquefied natural gas exports are expected to increase sharply in 2018, with the United States closing out 2017 as a net gas exporter. "The potential for LNG, not just for the U.S. but for the whole global industry, is enormous," said Charles Dewhurst, an energy market analyst at the consultancy BDO. Gas is selling at a discount worldwide, but LNG produced from lower-cost U.S. shale gas formations is still at a comparative advantage. And there's plenty of it. U.S. gas in storage is ample. Early next year, the East Coast will join the rising surge of LNG exports as Dominion Energy Inc.'s Cove Point LNG export project in Maryland begins shipping its first cargoes. Construction at the $4 billion site is now complete, and Dominion is in the process of commissioning and storing gas in advance of its liquefaction, the company reported Tuesday. Along the Gulf of Mexico coast, Cheniere Energy Inc. will be exporting from a fourth liquefaction train at its Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana. A competing project, Freeport LNG in Texas, about two hours south of Houston, hopes to start shipping gas by the end of next year. And Cheniere is banking on shipping more LNG out of its development in Corpus Christi, as the company's schedule puts Corpus Christi LNG shipments on the market sometime in 2018.
Natural Gas Demand
Natural Gas Demand
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Demand
From the Gaffney, Cline & Associates 12/22/2017
Natural Gas – US LNG looking good for 2018?
To conclude the flurry of events in Europe, following the cold weather and supply disruptions of the last few weeks, prices are once more stabilizing, with warmer temperatures, resumed Norwegian production, Continental imports to the UK, and LNG imports all contributing to a much more balanced supply situation. As a result, prices are stabilizing, albeit at around US$8/MMBtu for January.
The other big story that has been reported in this bulletin over the last month has been the unerring monthly increases in demand from China. Official figures suggest China will have achieved almost 20% year on year growth during 2017, and as a result, the last week of the year is seeing Asian LNG spot prices at a 6 year high, of almost US$10/MMBtu.
Contrast this with the sluggish natural gas prices in the US, resulting from relatively warm temperatures and full storage. With US natural gas prices now struggling at around US$2.70, those who have taken capacity bookings at the various US LNG export facilities are starting to see a very attractive arbitrage opportunity, in fact the highest since exports started. Very different to the situation less than a year ago, when liquefaction, fuel and shipping to move gas to what were low value markets seemed to point to an unsustainable leakage of cash.
Although LNG freight rates are also beginning to respond to this higher activity, with charter rates double what they were at the beginning of 2017, it is still possible to move LNG around the world at freight rates well below the cost of new build ships.
With Europe and Asia both now offering a viable market for US LNG, and Asian prices continuing to firm up from Chinese demand, and freight still at affordable rates, as we enter 2018 the prospects for US natural gas exports have never looked better.
Natural Gas – US LNG looking good for 2018?
To conclude the flurry of events in Europe, following the cold weather and supply disruptions of the last few weeks, prices are once more stabilizing, with warmer temperatures, resumed Norwegian production, Continental imports to the UK, and LNG imports all contributing to a much more balanced supply situation. As a result, prices are stabilizing, albeit at around US$8/MMBtu for January.
The other big story that has been reported in this bulletin over the last month has been the unerring monthly increases in demand from China. Official figures suggest China will have achieved almost 20% year on year growth during 2017, and as a result, the last week of the year is seeing Asian LNG spot prices at a 6 year high, of almost US$10/MMBtu.
Contrast this with the sluggish natural gas prices in the US, resulting from relatively warm temperatures and full storage. With US natural gas prices now struggling at around US$2.70, those who have taken capacity bookings at the various US LNG export facilities are starting to see a very attractive arbitrage opportunity, in fact the highest since exports started. Very different to the situation less than a year ago, when liquefaction, fuel and shipping to move gas to what were low value markets seemed to point to an unsustainable leakage of cash.
Although LNG freight rates are also beginning to respond to this higher activity, with charter rates double what they were at the beginning of 2017, it is still possible to move LNG around the world at freight rates well below the cost of new build ships.
With Europe and Asia both now offering a viable market for US LNG, and Asian prices continuing to firm up from Chinese demand, and freight still at affordable rates, as we enter 2018 the prospects for US natural gas exports have never looked better.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group