Energy Prospectus

There is an extremely wide range of estimates for U.S. oil production growth in 2020. My take is that U.S. oil production growth will peak in a few months, go on decline in Q1 2020 and will only increase in 2H 2020 if WTI moves firmly over $65/bbl. Read: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-oil-ou ... 01502.html

EIA's growth estimate looks way too high to me and IEA uses EIA estimates for U.S. production. The U.S. active drilling rig count is 50 rigs below what Raymond James estimates is needed to keep U.S. production flat.

At current oil prices, “what you cannot do is harvest cash and grow,” said Raoul LeBlanc, a Houston-based analyst at IHS. “There’s an inflection point coming here because production growth is going to slow down massively.”

The implications for U.S. oil production are vast. Shale wells are gushers for the first three months but after that, output plummets so that by the end of the first year it’s down about 60%. That’s 10 times the decline rate of conventional wells.

Running To Stand Still

As a result, America’s record crude output relies heavily on new wells. About two-thirds of U.S. shale oil comes from wells drilled within the past 18 months, according to ShaleProfile’s data.