Oil & Gas Prices - April 28
Posted: Wed Apr 28, 2021 8:21 am
Opening Prices:
> WTI (JUN21) is up 46c to $63.40/Bbl, and Brent is up 38c to $66.80/Bbl.
> Natural gas (MAY21) is up 3.2c to $2.905/MMBtu. The JUN21 contract is trading at $2.968. JUL21 to MAR22 are now all trading over $3.00.
AEGIS Notes
Crude Oil
COVID outbreak threatens Canada Oil Sands production
Twelve oil sand production sites have been listed with outbreaks, just as contractors have begun to fly in for maintenance season
AEGIS notes no production has been knocked offline yet, though maintenance work has been delayed. If COVID infections rise, it could possibly extend the duration of the maintenance work, taking Canadian supply offline
Goldman forecasts Brent oil will hit $80/Bbl in the next six months
The bank says global consumption will surge by 5.2 MMBbl/d over the next six months, which is a 50% larger jump than the next biggest increase over that timeframe (2000)
Overall demand will increase to 99 MMBbl/d in 3Q2021 as vaccination rollout in Europe picks up
EIA weekly data is due at 9:30 am CST. Expectation per Bloomberg Survey:
U.S. Crude Inventories: – 60 MBbls
U.S. Gasoline Inventories: – 53 MBbls
U.S. Distillate Inventories: – 987 MBbls
U.S. Refinery Utilization: + 0.30% change
Natural Gas
Price premiums for Texas Gulf Coast gas are likely to continue due to strong LNG demand and Mexico exports (Platts)
The supply and demand balance in East and South Texas is tightening, according to S&P Platts and promises to change the region into a premium basis market for a while < Good news for CRK, GDP and TALO.
Exports to Mexico are averaging over 6.1 Bcf/d in March – their highest level on record < AEGIS expects exports to Mexico to increase to 7 Bcf/day this summer.
Houston Ship Channel and Katy Hub are trading at premiums to US benchmark Henry Hub
There are over 240+ historical settle and Forward curves available to clients who sign in on the AEGIS Research Tab
A demand boost from late shoulder season cold from the Rockies to the East Coast for the week ended April 23 might lead to a near single-digit injection to be reported tomorrow (S&P)
The average estimate on Bloomberg is calling for a 10 Bcf injection
A 10 Bcf injection would prove bullish compared to the five-year average of 67 Bcf
AEGIS notes that the gas market has trended tighter, and price has responded by rising to $2.92 for the May contract as of Wednesday morning, which represents a gain of 30c over the past two weeks
> WTI (JUN21) is up 46c to $63.40/Bbl, and Brent is up 38c to $66.80/Bbl.
> Natural gas (MAY21) is up 3.2c to $2.905/MMBtu. The JUN21 contract is trading at $2.968. JUL21 to MAR22 are now all trading over $3.00.
AEGIS Notes
Crude Oil
COVID outbreak threatens Canada Oil Sands production
Twelve oil sand production sites have been listed with outbreaks, just as contractors have begun to fly in for maintenance season
AEGIS notes no production has been knocked offline yet, though maintenance work has been delayed. If COVID infections rise, it could possibly extend the duration of the maintenance work, taking Canadian supply offline
Goldman forecasts Brent oil will hit $80/Bbl in the next six months
The bank says global consumption will surge by 5.2 MMBbl/d over the next six months, which is a 50% larger jump than the next biggest increase over that timeframe (2000)
Overall demand will increase to 99 MMBbl/d in 3Q2021 as vaccination rollout in Europe picks up
EIA weekly data is due at 9:30 am CST. Expectation per Bloomberg Survey:
U.S. Crude Inventories: – 60 MBbls
U.S. Gasoline Inventories: – 53 MBbls
U.S. Distillate Inventories: – 987 MBbls
U.S. Refinery Utilization: + 0.30% change
Natural Gas
Price premiums for Texas Gulf Coast gas are likely to continue due to strong LNG demand and Mexico exports (Platts)
The supply and demand balance in East and South Texas is tightening, according to S&P Platts and promises to change the region into a premium basis market for a while < Good news for CRK, GDP and TALO.
Exports to Mexico are averaging over 6.1 Bcf/d in March – their highest level on record < AEGIS expects exports to Mexico to increase to 7 Bcf/day this summer.
Houston Ship Channel and Katy Hub are trading at premiums to US benchmark Henry Hub
There are over 240+ historical settle and Forward curves available to clients who sign in on the AEGIS Research Tab
A demand boost from late shoulder season cold from the Rockies to the East Coast for the week ended April 23 might lead to a near single-digit injection to be reported tomorrow (S&P)
The average estimate on Bloomberg is calling for a 10 Bcf injection
A 10 Bcf injection would prove bullish compared to the five-year average of 67 Bcf
AEGIS notes that the gas market has trended tighter, and price has responded by rising to $2.92 for the May contract as of Wednesday morning, which represents a gain of 30c over the past two weeks