Oil & Gas Prices - Nov 1
Posted: Mon Nov 01, 2021 9:11 am
Opening Prices:
> WTI is up 58c to $84.15/Bbl, and Brent is up 66c to $84.38/Bbl.
> Natural gas is down 10.7c to $5.319/MMBtu.
AEGIS Notes
Oil
The trend is UP. Buyers will remain in control above $83. A weekly close below $79.40 will change the trend. Market-driven hedges are available at current prices.
Oil prices rose Monday morning by about 1%, a week where OPEC and its allies gather to discuss their oil supply policy
> Ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting, Kuwait’s oil minister said he supports raising output by 400 MBbl/d
> OPEC+’s plan to continue increasing supply by 400 MBbl/d has been challenged by consuming nations who say OPEC needs to supply more oil in the face of tight supplies < MY TAKE: OPEC+ is struggling to make the 400,000 bpd per month increases and as over half of the cartel members are already at capacity. Plus, all of them want and need high oil prices.
President Joe Biden said he was reluctant to describe what he planned to do if oil-producing nations don’t boost output (Bloomberg) < "reluctant to describe" should be changed to "does not have a clue".
> Asked how the U.S. would respond if OPEC governments don’t act, he said, “What we’re considering doing, that I’m reluctant to say before I have to do it.”
> A senior Biden administration official said over the weekend that the U.S. hoped to see production increase in the short term but stands by its longer-term goal of continuing to transition to more reliant on renewable energy sources
China may be forced to start purchasing crude at elevated prices to replenish its declining stockpiles (BBG)
> Commercial and strategic oil inventories have shrunk to the lowest level since November 2018 in terms of filled capacity, according to Kayrros, which tracks supplies at about 190 terminals
> “The level looks as low as it can go, and refiners may start restocking from here,” said Yuntao Liu, an analyst with Energy Aspects in London
Natural Gas
The trend is UP. A change in trend would require a weekly close below $4.80. Sellers have regained control and will remains so below $5.85. Market-Driven hedges for producers are available at current prices.
The prompt-month (Dec ’21) Henry Hub contract is down by 10.7c this morning, near $5.319
> Weather forecasts turned warmer over the weekend, with nearly every region revising temperature forecasts significantly upwards
> The new weather models removed 27 Bcf from the demand forecasts, according to Criterion Research
Feedgas demand at U.S. LNG facilities hit a six-month high of 11.8 Bcf/d on Friday, October 29, as Sabine Pass Train-6 commissioning commences
> The prompt-month JKM (Japan/Korea) contract is trading near $30/MMBtu, while the prompt-month TTF (Europe) contract is down to $22/MMBtu and fell $8 last week
> The export arbitrage remains wide open. However, TTF prices have come under pressure recently, as Russia vowed to increase exports to fill EU gas inventories beginning November 8
> WTI is up 58c to $84.15/Bbl, and Brent is up 66c to $84.38/Bbl.
> Natural gas is down 10.7c to $5.319/MMBtu.
AEGIS Notes
Oil
The trend is UP. Buyers will remain in control above $83. A weekly close below $79.40 will change the trend. Market-driven hedges are available at current prices.
Oil prices rose Monday morning by about 1%, a week where OPEC and its allies gather to discuss their oil supply policy
> Ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting, Kuwait’s oil minister said he supports raising output by 400 MBbl/d
> OPEC+’s plan to continue increasing supply by 400 MBbl/d has been challenged by consuming nations who say OPEC needs to supply more oil in the face of tight supplies < MY TAKE: OPEC+ is struggling to make the 400,000 bpd per month increases and as over half of the cartel members are already at capacity. Plus, all of them want and need high oil prices.
President Joe Biden said he was reluctant to describe what he planned to do if oil-producing nations don’t boost output (Bloomberg) < "reluctant to describe" should be changed to "does not have a clue".
> Asked how the U.S. would respond if OPEC governments don’t act, he said, “What we’re considering doing, that I’m reluctant to say before I have to do it.”
> A senior Biden administration official said over the weekend that the U.S. hoped to see production increase in the short term but stands by its longer-term goal of continuing to transition to more reliant on renewable energy sources
China may be forced to start purchasing crude at elevated prices to replenish its declining stockpiles (BBG)
> Commercial and strategic oil inventories have shrunk to the lowest level since November 2018 in terms of filled capacity, according to Kayrros, which tracks supplies at about 190 terminals
> “The level looks as low as it can go, and refiners may start restocking from here,” said Yuntao Liu, an analyst with Energy Aspects in London
Natural Gas
The trend is UP. A change in trend would require a weekly close below $4.80. Sellers have regained control and will remains so below $5.85. Market-Driven hedges for producers are available at current prices.
The prompt-month (Dec ’21) Henry Hub contract is down by 10.7c this morning, near $5.319
> Weather forecasts turned warmer over the weekend, with nearly every region revising temperature forecasts significantly upwards
> The new weather models removed 27 Bcf from the demand forecasts, according to Criterion Research
Feedgas demand at U.S. LNG facilities hit a six-month high of 11.8 Bcf/d on Friday, October 29, as Sabine Pass Train-6 commissioning commences
> The prompt-month JKM (Japan/Korea) contract is trading near $30/MMBtu, while the prompt-month TTF (Europe) contract is down to $22/MMBtu and fell $8 last week
> The export arbitrage remains wide open. However, TTF prices have come under pressure recently, as Russia vowed to increase exports to fill EU gas inventories beginning November 8