EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report - Jan 31

[dan_s]

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending January 26, 2024

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.8 million barrels per day during the week ending January 26, 2024, which was 428 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 82.9% of their operable capacity last week. < This is what caused crude oil inventories to build.
Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.3 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.4 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.6 million barrels per day last week, increased by 25 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.2 million barrels per day, 5.9% less than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 400 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 138 thousand barrels per day.

Inventories
> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 421.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year.

> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels from last week and are about 1% above the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories increased last week.

> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels last week and are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year.

> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 5.3 million barrels from last week and are 1% above the five year average for this time of year. < Over the last two weeks, propane inventories went from a big surplus to now just above the five year average. This is a "ray of hope" for most of our gassers.

>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 9.6 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.8 million barrels a day, up by 2.1% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.2 million barrels a day, up by 1.2% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 5.2% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.7% compared with the same four-week period last year.

[dan_s]

Per EIA 914 report released today, November U.S. oil production was ~13.308 million bpd. Since then, US oil production has fallen to ~12.757 million bpd in January. Most of the decline is weather related, but HFI Research forecasts that U.S. oil will stay below 13.0 million bpd through Q1.

It is a False Paradigm that U.S. shale oil production can continue to grow with no peak in sight. The Permian Basin is the only area with upside and it is unlikely that the Permian can offset production declines in the rest of the U.S.