US Oil Production hits a bump in the road

[dan_s]

From HFI Research

I don't know how many people realize how significant this EIA PSM/914 report was (just published for November). In our real-time US oil production tracking dataset, November 2023 was supposed to be at an all-time high. While headline figures did point to a new "record", the underlying balance suggested otherwise.
With the adjustment coming in at -315k b/d, the old methodology of using production + adjustment suggests that real US oil production was 12.993 million b/d.
Even if you factor in transfers to crude oil supply, US total supplies came in at 13.527 million b/d, which is nothing higher than the previous months. As you can see in our trued-up US oil production chart below, transfers to crude oil supply were first introduced in June 2023, and since then, we have been able to "true-up" US crude production. The flatline signals that despite the capex ramp-up from private producers, the production gains have been a mirage. Headline figures outperform, but underlying figures suggest otherwise.
Going forward, this is going to present a surprise to the downside for 2024 balances. While IEA and the rest are using ~13.3 million b/d for US crude production exit in 2023, the real figure is closer to ~13 million b/d. And as Q1 continues, the implied balance so far is suggesting even lower US crude production.

[aja57]

From Seeking Alpha..

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4666866-ugly-truth-about-us-oil-production-and-why-you-should-pay-attention

[dan_s]

Trading Economic this morning:
WTI crude futures held the recent decline to around $74 per barrel on Friday and were set to lose about 5% this week as signs of defusing tensions in the Middle East eased supply-disruption worries. Reports emerged that a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas is in the works, with Hamas saying it was reviewing the deal. Traders were hopeful that a truce in Gaza would stop Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping that has disrupted global trade and oil flows from the region. However, a Qatari official said there was no ceasefire. Meanwhile, OPEC+ maintained its current production policy, keeping output cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in place for the first quarter. On the demand side, global oil demand will likely increase by 2 million barrels per day in 2024, much higher than a previous forecast of 1.24 million bpd, according to EIA.