EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Feb 1

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 2,659 Bcf as of Friday, January 26, 2024, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 197 Bcf from the previous week. < Well freeze offs in the first few days of the week had a lot to do with this large draw. All of those wells are now back online.
Stocks were 54 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 130 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,529 Bcf.
At 2,659 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

I now expect next week's report for the week ending February 2 to be a draw of ~100 Bcf, which will be compared to the 5-yr average draw of 141 Bcf and last year's draw of 217 Bcf.

Joe Bastardi is sticking with his forecast that temperatures in the eastern half of the US will be lower than normal February 10 through March 10. Keep an eye on the Chicago 10-Day forecast: https://www.wunderground.com/forecast/us/il/chicago/KILCHICA787

Chicago is the "bullseye" for space heating demand.

I have lowered the 2024 HH natural gas prices used in my forecast models. The current price of the front month (MAR24) NYMEX futures contract for HH gas is $2.07 as the Paper Traders are stuck with a lot long contracts that they must close.
It will take a change in the weather pattern to generate a short covering rally in the futures market.
Keep in mind that U.S. natural gas prices are regional, so what the companies are actually getting for their gas could be much higher, especially in the Northeast markets.

"Forecasting is difficult, especially when it is about the future." - Yogi Berra

[Fraser921]

Celsius had a -202 forecast for last week and -80 for this week. They show + 184 to 5 year avg over next 4 weeks

https://www.celsiusenergy.net/