February begins with more "noise", which causes more oil investors to move to the sidelines. The big oil price dip was caused by one or two hedge fund that dumped a lot of long contracts that triggered a lot of stop loss orders by other hedge funds that were long oil. Keep in mind that oil demand is seasonal and will go higher in March.
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OilPrice.com: Oil Prices Drop, Recover on Gaza War Ceasefire Proposal Rumors
By Julianne Geiger - Feb 01, 2024, 1:01 PM CST
Oil prices began tanking on Thursday afternoon as news was reported by Al Jazeera that Israel and Hamas had agreed to a ceasefire proposal that could put an end to the geopolitical premium that has buoyed oil in recent months. Al Jazeera deleted the Tweet a short while later, with oil prices reclaiming at least some of the losses.
While traders may have gotten used to—and perhaps immune from—fear-based geopolitical events that merely threaten to raise the price of oil without creating actual supply problems, today’s drop in crude oil prices suggests that there was at least some component of a geopolitical risk premium present in the current price of oil—a premium that is quickly vanishing.
Brent crude oil had fallen to below $79 per barrel by 1:20pm ET, a drop off of 2.05% in a single day, landing at $78.90 at that time. The price of a WTI crude barrel had fallen by 1.95% at that same time, to $74.37, a loss of $1.50 per barrel.
Behind the price drop was news from Qatar, which said that Israel had agreed to a ceasefire proposal, Al Jazeera reported on Thursday afternoon. Qatar’s considerable wealth affords it some power in the region despite its small stature and has managed to keep fair relationships with both the United States and Iran.
Qatar also indicated that Hamas had given its initial approval for a ceasefire and hostage deal. A Palestinian official close to the talks said that Hamas would be unlikely to reject the ceasefire proposal, but wouldn’t sign it until assurances had been given that Israel was committed to putting an end to the conflict, the Jerusalem Post reported on Thursday afternoon.
But by 1:52 pm ET, Brent had regained to $80.33, with WTI clawing its way to $75.63 as Al Jazeera deleted its original Tweet, leaving the rumor unconfirmed that a deal had been reached.
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MY TAKE: This is good news if it is true, but Israel is likely to demand that Hamas de-arm and agree to leave Gaza. What are the odds that wackos like Hamas agree to surrender? Are the U.S. and Iran suddenly pals again? Is Iran suddenly afraid of Joe Biden?
Natural Gas looks way oversold to me.
Oil & Gas Prices - Feb 1
Oil & Gas Prices - Feb 1
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Feb 1
Trading Economics:
Oil
"Oil futures reversed earlier gains to fall almost 3% to below $74 per barrel as traders kept a close watch on attempts to broker a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Hamas is reviewing a three-phase proposal for a truce in Gaza, and there is optimism that it may be accepted. Earlier, WTI crude rose above $76 per barrel on supply constraints. On Thursday, the OPEC committee affirmed that the members were maintaining production cuts, following a review of data from November and December. Also, the committee made no recommendations for altering OPEC's decision to reduce market output by 2.2 million barrels per day this quarter. At the same time, the demand outlook has been improving. Global oil demand will likely increase by 2 million barrels per day in 2024, much higher than a previous forecast of 1.24 million bpd, according to EIA. Also, interest rate cut prospects in major economies and a series of stimulus measures in top crude importer China are set to boost consumption."
Natural Gas
"US natural gas futures fell below $2.1/MMBtu, nearing their lowest point in nine months after the EIA's storage report. Government data showed US utilities pulled 197 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage last week, compared with market expectations of a 194 bcf draw. The report also showed gas in storage remains 5.1% above the seasonal norm. Additionally, heating demand is expected to stay low amid warmer weather forecasted through mid-February, restricting withdrawals in the upcoming weeks. Also, the ongoing shutdown of a liquefaction unit at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas means more gas will remain in the country. On the other hand, preliminary data suggests a decrease in output this week."
Oil
"Oil futures reversed earlier gains to fall almost 3% to below $74 per barrel as traders kept a close watch on attempts to broker a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Hamas is reviewing a three-phase proposal for a truce in Gaza, and there is optimism that it may be accepted. Earlier, WTI crude rose above $76 per barrel on supply constraints. On Thursday, the OPEC committee affirmed that the members were maintaining production cuts, following a review of data from November and December. Also, the committee made no recommendations for altering OPEC's decision to reduce market output by 2.2 million barrels per day this quarter. At the same time, the demand outlook has been improving. Global oil demand will likely increase by 2 million barrels per day in 2024, much higher than a previous forecast of 1.24 million bpd, according to EIA. Also, interest rate cut prospects in major economies and a series of stimulus measures in top crude importer China are set to boost consumption."
Natural Gas
"US natural gas futures fell below $2.1/MMBtu, nearing their lowest point in nine months after the EIA's storage report. Government data showed US utilities pulled 197 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage last week, compared with market expectations of a 194 bcf draw. The report also showed gas in storage remains 5.1% above the seasonal norm. Additionally, heating demand is expected to stay low amid warmer weather forecasted through mid-February, restricting withdrawals in the upcoming weeks. Also, the ongoing shutdown of a liquefaction unit at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas means more gas will remain in the country. On the other hand, preliminary data suggests a decrease in output this week."
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group