Adam Rosencwajg outlook for NGas & Uranium prices

[dan_s]

During the 2nd half of the this interview ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bWVySnf72o ) Adam Rosencwajg discusses why he remains very bullish on oil, natural gas and uranium prices. The interview was recorded 2-1-2024.

Natural Gas:
> Another mild winter (after one very cold week in January) caused U.S. Ngas prices to fall below $2.00
> Problems at the Freeport LNG export facility also took ~1 Bcfpd of demand offline.
> Upstream companies will reduce Ngas well completions. Already happening in Appalachia (Marcellus & Utica Shales) and the Haynesville.
> Adam thinks the Marcellus Shale is nearing peak production. If he's right, this will be a significant Paradigm Shift since most people believe that Appalachia still has massive upside. Appalachia also has limited pipeline takeaway capacity issues.
> Most Bullish Outlook: Starting in Q3 2024 (less than 5 months away) ~5 Bcfpd of new Ngas demand will come online with three large LNG export facilities expected to come online from Q3 2024 to Q1 2025. This will push demand for U.S. Ngas higher than current total production capacity. This is why the NYMEX strip prices starting with the DEC24 contract for HH gas are over $3.20 today.
> If we do get a big spike in demand, the Haynesville might be the only major Ngas play with near-term upside. There is a lot of natural gas in the Permian Basin and the South Texas Eagle Ford, but it will not ramp up until Ngas prices are a lot higher.

When asked at the very end of the interview what things could happen that would lower his bullish outlook for energy demand growth, especially his view that oil demand (and oil prices) will have a strong tailwind for at least the next 15 years. His response:
> A significant global recession. Even the 2008 recession only lowered oil demand by 2% during 2H 2008 thru 2009, which rebound back to the long-term trend line in early 2010 (one of the best years every for EPGs Sweet 16).
> A massive amount of new capital becoming available to upstream oil & gas companies to fund a big increase in exploration & development. No indication that will have anytime soon.
> I would add to the list another major pandemic, which is always the "Black Swan Event" that can lower energy demand.

The entire interview is ~45 minutes. Worth the time.