OPEC's Monthly Report
Posted: Thu Apr 11, 2024 8:34 am
Each month OPEC publishes their view of the global oil market. It is usually more accurate than IEA's monthly "Oil Market Report".
Below is a summary of OPEC's report that was released yesterday, April 10. Highlighted in blue are what I believe to be key stats.
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Demand
2024: The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 remains broadly unchanged from last month's assessment of 2.25 mb/d. Slight adjustments were made to the 1Q24 data, with a slight upward revision in OECD Europe and some non-OECD data, reflecting better-than-expected performance in oil demand data. This increase was offset by a downward revision to Africa in 1Q24 and the Middle East in the first three quarters. Accordingly, the OECD is projected to expand by around 0.3 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
2025: In 2025, global oil demand is expected to see robust growth of 1.8 mb/d, y-o-y. The OECD is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.7 mb/d.
Supply
2024: The non-DoC liquids supply (i.e. liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2024, revised down from the previous month's assessment by about 0.1 mb/d. In 2024, the main drivers for liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Canada, Brazil and Norway.
2025: The non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2025 is expected at 1.1 mb/d, revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month's assessment. The growth is mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway. The term "non-DoC liquids supply" is established to better reflect the current breakdown of global liquids supply into DoC and non-DoC.
Commercial stock movements
Preliminary February 2024 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks moved down by 25.7 mb, m-o-m. At 2,733 mb, they were 187 mb below the 2015-2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks rose by 19.6 mb, while product stocks fell by 45.3 mb, m-o-m. OECD commercial crude stocks stood at 1,342 mb in February, 106 mb lower than the 2015-2019 average. OECD total product stocks in February stood at 1,391 mb, 81 mb below the 2015-2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks dropped by 0.4 days, m-o-m, in February 2024 to stand at 59.8 days. This is 2.8 days less than the 2015-2019 average.
Balance of supply and Demand
Demand for DoC crude is projected to stand at about 43.2 mb/d in 2024, which is around 0.9 mb/d higher than the estimated level for 2023. Demand for DoC crude in 2025 is expected to reach about 44.0 mb/d, an increase of about 0.8 mb/d over the forecast 2024 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2024 is projected to stand at about 28.5 mb/d, which is around 1.2 mb/d higher than the estimated level for 2023. Demand for OPEC crude in 2025 is expected to reach about 29.0 mb/d, an increase of about 0.4 mb/d over the forecast 2024 level.
March production based on secondary sources
Total 26.604M bpd, +3K bpd m/m
Algeria 909K bpd, unchanged m/m
Congo 250K bpd, +5K bpd m/m
Equatorial Guinea 59K bpd, +6K bpd m/m
Gabon 230K bpd, +15K bpd m/m
Iran 3.188M bpd, +28K bpd m/m
Iraq 4.194M bpd, (23K) bpd m/m
Kuwait 2.446M bpd, +12K bpd m/m
Libya 1.161M bpd, (2K) bpd m/m
Nigeria 1.398M bpd, (38K) bpd m/m
Saudi Arabia 9.037M bpd, +20K bpd m/m
UAE 2.925M bpd, (6K) bpd m/m
Venezuela 809K bpd, (14K) bpd m/m
March production directly communicated to OPEC by its members
Algeria 907K bpd, +1K bpd m/m
Congo 254K bpd, +9K bpd m/m
Equatorial Guinea 60K bpd, +14K bpd m/m
Iraq 3.903M bpd, (89K) bpd m/m
Kuwait 2.413M bpd, unchanged m/m
Libya 1.236M bpd, +63K bpd m/m
Nigeria 1.231M bpd, (92K) bpd m/m
Saudi Arabia 8.973M bpd, (39K) bpd m/m
UAE 2.918M bpd, +4K bpd m/m
Venezuela 874K bpd, (3K) bpd m/m
Below is a summary of OPEC's report that was released yesterday, April 10. Highlighted in blue are what I believe to be key stats.
------------------------------------
Demand
2024: The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 remains broadly unchanged from last month's assessment of 2.25 mb/d. Slight adjustments were made to the 1Q24 data, with a slight upward revision in OECD Europe and some non-OECD data, reflecting better-than-expected performance in oil demand data. This increase was offset by a downward revision to Africa in 1Q24 and the Middle East in the first three quarters. Accordingly, the OECD is projected to expand by around 0.3 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d.
2025: In 2025, global oil demand is expected to see robust growth of 1.8 mb/d, y-o-y. The OECD is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.7 mb/d.
Supply
2024: The non-DoC liquids supply (i.e. liquids supply from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2024, revised down from the previous month's assessment by about 0.1 mb/d. In 2024, the main drivers for liquids supply growth are expected to be the US, Canada, Brazil and Norway.
2025: The non-DoC liquids supply growth in 2025 is expected at 1.1 mb/d, revised down by 0.1 mb/d from the previous month's assessment. The growth is mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada and Norway. The term "non-DoC liquids supply" is established to better reflect the current breakdown of global liquids supply into DoC and non-DoC.
Commercial stock movements
Preliminary February 2024 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks moved down by 25.7 mb, m-o-m. At 2,733 mb, they were 187 mb below the 2015-2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks rose by 19.6 mb, while product stocks fell by 45.3 mb, m-o-m. OECD commercial crude stocks stood at 1,342 mb in February, 106 mb lower than the 2015-2019 average. OECD total product stocks in February stood at 1,391 mb, 81 mb below the 2015-2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks dropped by 0.4 days, m-o-m, in February 2024 to stand at 59.8 days. This is 2.8 days less than the 2015-2019 average.
Balance of supply and Demand
Demand for DoC crude is projected to stand at about 43.2 mb/d in 2024, which is around 0.9 mb/d higher than the estimated level for 2023. Demand for DoC crude in 2025 is expected to reach about 44.0 mb/d, an increase of about 0.8 mb/d over the forecast 2024 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2024 is projected to stand at about 28.5 mb/d, which is around 1.2 mb/d higher than the estimated level for 2023. Demand for OPEC crude in 2025 is expected to reach about 29.0 mb/d, an increase of about 0.4 mb/d over the forecast 2024 level.
March production based on secondary sources
Total 26.604M bpd, +3K bpd m/m
Algeria 909K bpd, unchanged m/m
Congo 250K bpd, +5K bpd m/m
Equatorial Guinea 59K bpd, +6K bpd m/m
Gabon 230K bpd, +15K bpd m/m
Iran 3.188M bpd, +28K bpd m/m
Iraq 4.194M bpd, (23K) bpd m/m
Kuwait 2.446M bpd, +12K bpd m/m
Libya 1.161M bpd, (2K) bpd m/m
Nigeria 1.398M bpd, (38K) bpd m/m
Saudi Arabia 9.037M bpd, +20K bpd m/m
UAE 2.925M bpd, (6K) bpd m/m
Venezuela 809K bpd, (14K) bpd m/m
March production directly communicated to OPEC by its members
Algeria 907K bpd, +1K bpd m/m
Congo 254K bpd, +9K bpd m/m
Equatorial Guinea 60K bpd, +14K bpd m/m
Iraq 3.903M bpd, (89K) bpd m/m
Kuwait 2.413M bpd, unchanged m/m
Libya 1.236M bpd, +63K bpd m/m
Nigeria 1.231M bpd, (92K) bpd m/m
Saudi Arabia 8.973M bpd, (39K) bpd m/m
UAE 2.918M bpd, +4K bpd m/m
Venezuela 874K bpd, (3K) bpd m/m