LINE and LNCO

[dan_s]

Raymond James’ Kevin Smith thinks Linn Energy look’s OK despite Linn’s disappointing Q4 results (so do I):

"As the clouds start to clear in the wake of the [Linn Energy] / Berry merger, the partnership has evolved into a dynamic company with lots of options at its disposal. In addition to a best-in-class hedging program and a well-oiled acquisition machine, LINN Energy is now in possession of a large amount of horizontal Wolfcamp acreage and is evaluating a number of options to monetize this acreage. Given the stability in the distribution, the upside from the horizontal Wolfcamp acreage position, and the sheer breadth of growth outlets available to the partnership, we reiterate our Outperform rating".

UBS analyst Shneur Gershuni and team maintained their Buy rating but lowered their price target to $33 from $34. They explain:

Combing through the updated guidance for 2014, the most surprising result was the surge in LOE, followed by lean distribution coverage in 2014 assuming no growth in distribution. The troubling implication of today’s guidance is that either BRY is not as accretive as first thought or the legacy biz is declining faster than modelled. While guidance was clearly disappointing, the proved reserve update was encouraging in our opinion as [Linn Energy] was able to replace 123% of reserves with the drillbit (excluding acquisitions) at a cost of $2.21.

Mgmt carefully laid out strategic options for its Midland Basin acreage by evaluating asset swaps or a JV (as a reminder [Linn Energy] has net acreage 55k in the Wolfcamp). Firstly we would prefer an asset swap into a longer lived slow decline reserve productive asset as it is presents an asset profile more consistent with how we think about Upstream MLPs. We are encouraged by mgnt strongly considering this approach as it would result in increased production and cash flow with no cash out the door (essentially this is likely where the BRY accretion will come from), with the caveat of course being, that [Linn Energy] captures the appropriate valuation.

Gershuni reiterated his Neutral rating on LinnCo (LNCO).