Gulfport Energy (GPOR)

dan_s · Post by **dan_s** » Wed Feb 10, 2016 3:33 pm

I have updated my forecast model for GPOR and it will be available on the EPG website later today.

My valuation is adjusted to $41.40/share, compared to First Call's price target of $35.61.

GPOR is one of our "gassers". 71% of revenues in 2015 are from the sale of natural gas and the percentage will increase to ~80% in 2016. Production increased by 128% YOY in 2015 and my forecast assumes only 26% YOY production growth in 2016. The company has not yet provided production guidance for 2016, so this is just my SWAG at this point.

GPOR also sells a lot of NGLs. IMO there is significant upside for this one because NGL prices are at rock bottom today. For example, GPOR sold NGLs for $46.03/bbl in 2014 and they sold them for $14.28/bbl in Q4 2016. I am using $15.50/bbl in my forecast model for 2016.