crude up e&p's down

[setliff]

what is going on?

[mkarpoff]

Dan explained previously that when this happens it is because speculators are driving the price of oil, but stock buyers aren't jumping in.

[dan_s]

I don't expect crude oil to move much higher in the first quarter, although we will see some rather big moves (up and down). Speculators outnumber commercial traders by 20 to 1 and on some days it is more than 100 to 1.

I expect more committed buyers in the 2nd quarter as falling non-OPEC production is confirmed and demand for crude oil picks up. Refiners always ramp up gasoline production ahead of the summer driving season.

IMO the stuff coming out of OPEC is just "noise" at this point. Their next regular meeting is set for June. Hopefully, what's going on now is setting up a serious plan to support prices later this year. Regardless of what OPEC does or doesn't do, market forces are clearly pushing supply/demand back into balance.

J. Marshall Adkins, Raymond James: "While it may take a couple of quarters to play out, we see clear evidence that global oil demand is already responding, and global oil supply is poised to slow enough to leave the market substantially undersupplied by the end of 2016, lasting through 2018."