Ned Davis article Nov 2016 (good info on total energy market
Posted: Tue Mar 21, 2017 9:22 am
Thanks. You should all read the article.
I have lived through six major oil price cycles. "Nothing cures low oil prices faster than low oil prices". On one of the slides that I spoke from in Dallas on 3/21 and in my latest podcast we can see that OPEC spare capacity is currently in the "Danger Zone" (less than 2 MMBOPD of spare capacity). "Unplanned Supply Disruptions" happen in this business. Question: How do you think President Trump feels about the Obama/Kerry Iranian Nuke Deal? What happens to oil prices if he rips it up?
Plus, IEA is forecasting that demand for oil will exceed supply in Q2.
In 2016 the Sweet 16 was down double digits at the end of Q1. The Sweet 16 finished the year up 47%. As of last Friday's close, the Sweet 16 is trading at a 62% discount to my valuation (current break-up value). If IEA's supply/demand forecast is correct, we will see a lot of Wall Street money rotate into Energy in a few months.