Energy Prospectus

ChuckGeb

Eric Nuttall: I've been stopped at airports and on the street being asked what I think of the MEG situation. My thoughts? Both bids stink, and I hope they both get voted down. Given what we see coming for the oil market in 2H'26 and beyond, I think both bids materially undervalue what would have bee...

ChuckGeb

The market has spoken. Write it off. But no worry, it’s a non cash write off.

ChuckGeb

EOG Resources' (NYSE:EOG) joint shale project with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is progressing on schedule, with ADNOC drilling horizontal wells and oil successfully tested to the surface in the United Arab Emirates, EOG CEO Ezra Yacob said Tuesday, according to Reuters. EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) o...

ChuckGeb

If Nine Point Energy Fund is still in that will be another significant vote against. I intend to join in though my shares won’t move the needle much. I encourage others to do the same.

ChuckGeb

Under what circumstances would you expect actual market prices to reach your valuation?

ChuckGeb

Canada, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, China, and Algeria all have huge shale oil and gas resources, and they are beginning to assess and develop them to boost energy security and gain a foothold on the global markets. Saudi Arabia is developing Jafurah, the largest unconventional gas field discovered so ...

ChuckGeb

1) Tho trend is your friend, don't fight the tape. 2) Let profits run, take losses quickly. 3) It you buy for a reason, and that reason if discounted or is no longer valid, then sell! 4) If the values don't make sense, then don't participate. (2+2=4) 5) The cheap get cheaper, the dear get dearer. 6)...

ChuckGeb

Note to Sweet 16: Cut Capex, buy back stock. Rinse and repeat.

ChuckGeb

So you are saying the Indigenous group would buy up to C$2 billion and Cenovus would tender for the balknce of the offer seeking to top Starthcona offer? I like MEG staying pat for now as there is really no compelling reason to sell/merge and would expect with their long lived reserves and superior ...

ChuckGeb

Aug 12 (Reuters) - Cenovus Energy ( CVE ) is in talks with with Indigenous groups in Canada to jointly buy a stake in MEG Energy ( MEGEF ) worth C$2 Billion ($1.45 billion), Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the discussions. Cenovus Energy ( CVE ) did not immediately re...

ChuckGeb

Unfortunately they still have to pay off the massive debt associated with the $1 billion + in asset write-offs. Don't think FCF can be considered "free" for a long time as I am sure their lenders have a close eye on excess cash generated. They have a lead ball around their legs until they ...

ChuckGeb

Another 250,000 barrels a day added to global supply. SPRING, Texas – ExxonMobil Guyana started production today at Yellowtail, the fourth oil development in Guyana’s offshore Stabroek block. Yellowtail’s ONE GUYANA floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel joins the Destiny, Unity, a...

ChuckGeb

Argentina Finally Emerges as a South American Oil Powerhouse By Matthew Smith - Aug 06, 2025, 4:00 PM CDT The Vaca Muerta shale play, discovered in Argentina, contains an estimated 16 billion barrels of recoverable shale oil and 308 trillion cubic feet of shale gas, making it one of the top five unc...

ChuckGeb

OKLAHOMA CITY--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Gulfport Energy Corporation (NYSE: GPOR) (“Gulfport” or the “Company”) today reported financial and operating results for the three months ended June 30, 2025. Key Highlights Expanding stock repurchase authorization by 50% to $1.5 billion, which supports the preferre...

ChuckGeb

OKLAHOMA CITY--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Gulfport Energy Corporation (NYSE: GPOR) (“Gulfport” or the “Company”) today reported financial and operating results for the three months ended June 30, 2025. Key Highlights Expanding stock repurchase authorization by 50% to $1.5 billion, which supports the preferre...

ChuckGeb

In their 8/4 letter to shareholders accompanying their earnings release Van’t Hof cited: Due to likelihood of supply glut, they are dialing back activity while their drilling and completions have become more efficient and costs are coming down. They will be holding production flat for the balance of...

ChuckGeb

Not only that but Chevron has recently announced using "triple-frac" technique on 20% of its Permian wells reducing completion time 25% and per well costs 12%. Looking to expand to 50-60% of their Permian completions. The technique involves simultaneously fracing three wells at same time.

ChuckGeb

SM has realistically been operating their recently acquired Unita Basin assets for 2 quarters now. It appears to me that they are proving up the play beyond their projections. This one is a winner and is on sale for the time being.

ChuckGeb

Great stewards of capital. Of $100 million FCF, $40 million used for strategic bolt on acquisitions and $48.7 million buying back their own undervalued stock. I like it for a long term holding.

ChuckGeb

I believe using virtually all FCF to buyback stock at current price levels is a great way to deploy capital. Solid company like MEG.

ChuckGeb

U.S. President Donald Trump is pressing ahead with a move to allow Chevron ( CVX ) to resume oil operations in Venezuela, reversing a previous policy stance and defying opposition from senior Republicans. The shift comes after a recent prisoner exchange with Caracas and highlights Trump's focus on s...

ChuckGeb

Agree totally with Harry. Strathcoma is a better fit. However I am happy with the status quo however. Before Strathcona literally all of FCF was going to stock buybacks which at the rate it was going would be mostly retired in several years. They have 25+ of reserves which will come in handy when th...

ChuckGeb

Nice move. Valaris looking good as well.

ChuckGeb

Dan going up, market going down, Harry mediocre call at best. I think listening to the conference call is in order. Its a big ship that don't want to see go off the rails.

ChuckGeb

https://youtu.be/tO6NAwyWRK8?si=oSCnlEmBG0CtThPH

Equilibrium price of oil
China dominance
Etc

ChuckGeb

Excerpt from Raymond James Deep Dive on Delaware Basin Delaware Basin Deep Dive - 2025 Update JUNE 16, 2025 | 5:00 AM EDT INDUSTRY BRIEF A few years ago, we initiated our basin Deep Dive series that involved an exhaustive analysis of well productivity and drilling inventory across every meaningful p...

ChuckGeb

Excerpt from today’s piece on fabricated climate change hoax: ‘ On June 25, US Senator Ted Cruz chaired a remarkable hearing of the Senate Subcommittee on Federal Courts, Oversight, Agency Action, and Federal Rights. The focus was on allegations that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) financially sup...

ChuckGeb

My view is that should Exxon prevail, they will likely seek to increase their position like say 5% as a condition for their waiver of their right. Don’t think they will kill the deal and don’t think they want to commit $57 billion to acquire Hess. On Chevron’s side I am doubtful a shift to renewable...

ChuckGeb

Arbitrators have made a decision in the legal dispute between Exxon and Hess concerning a major oilfield project in Guyana, reported Reuters, citing two sources familiar with the matter. The dispute focuses on Chevron's $53bn acquisition of US oil producer Hess, which includes a 30% stake in Guyana'...

ChuckGeb

A value based approach to oil & gas investing. I am rejecting Strathcona’s offer for MEG but am considering an outright purchase of their stock based upon this intriguing address by Adam Waterous

https://youtu.be/3cLfePoDffc?si=9tXgvut8VuSbJrxZ

ChuckGeb

I think there entry into the UNITA Basin is undervalued. Additionally they stepped into a bunch of ducs there and are completing a little more wells than they are drilling. Looking forward to stock moving results when oil & gas are back in favor. Not likely in near term but should set up nicely ...

ChuckGeb

Vital Energy, Inc. (VTLE/Underperform) Downgrading to Underperform; Oil Risk Premium Unwinds (Link). Even after the big pullback yesterday, VTLE is easily the best performing (~25%) stock in our coverage universe over the past month. VTLE is on the lower side of inventory life in the Permian based o...

ChuckGeb

Bond offering only available to qualified institutional investors unless you are a non-US person.

ChuckGeb

Nice analysis. My view on CRI]K is that they are significantly overvalued. I don’t follow CNX and my initial obstacle would be finding out the takeaway constraints for its gas which could limit its growth. CRK is in superior geographic location for shipments to Gulf Coast. While I am not touting CRK...

ChuckGeb

Likewise EOG is set up well with its South Texas Dorado gas play and Black Stone Minerals with its royalty concentration in Shelby Trough. Both companies in my opinion are “on sale”.

ChuckGeb

The points listed by Dan and the level of confidence displayed by Wolf Wregner yesterday confirmed the confidence in execution of the plan. Great luncheon. Expect this company to provide transparent credible guidance with my expectation they will over deliver. Great entry point now before announceme...

ChuckGeb

I am extremely impressed with management of this company. Oil names out of favor right now, small caps to an extreme. Expect for duration of Trump admin. Go gassers for the sizzle. REPX however in my opinion has displayed a thoughtful, disciplined, and conservative business plan that is rare for a c...

ChuckGeb

A worthwhile listen that discusses the needs, the applications, and the bounds of AI.
https://youtu.be/id4YRO7G0wE?si=wgL4-SBpD5RtuxIm
Enjoy if you gave 25 minutes.

ChuckGeb

Both McDonald and Hay are very biased to commodities investments as am I. The issue is at the flash point of a market drop all investable assets take a hit with many of the best sold off to cover the losses on the worst. The message to me is that there may come a better entry point in the not too di...

ChuckGeb

In today’s edition of The Turning Point Larry McDonald announced the ‘Raise Cash Alert is High” based on: “over the weekend we have a) the U.S. Treasury Secretary instructing Walmart to “eat” some tariffs, b) the reconciliation bill failing in the House, and c) a Moody’s credit downgrade tossed on U...

ChuckGeb

https://x.com/ericnuttall/status/1923365731883721005?s=61

Eric Nuttall expresses opposition to offer.

ChuckGeb

I really like Meg. Never heard of Strathcona. Need to learn more. I really liked Silver Bow and am still trying to get comfortable with Crescent. Meg has been buying back so much stock that at the rate they are going in a few more years my personal shares might be significant.

ChuckGeb

MacroVoices #479 Anas Alhajji: What Do Saudi Arabia & Allies in OPEC+ Want from Accelerating the Unwinding of Voluntary Cuts?

https://bit.ly/43ldvBg

ChuckGeb

During the three months ended March 31, 2025, we sold non-core assets to unrelated third-party buyers for $6.9 million in aggregate cash proceeds and recorded a gain of $10.9 million on the sale of such assets. In addition, in March 2025, we entered into the purchase and sale agreement to sell certa...

ChuckGeb

It’s very clear to me, a year later, that the Silver Bow shareholders got the short end of the Crescent Energy merger. I am sure the former management of SBOW came out great, and while I haven’t analyzed it, I am confident KKR is being rewarded handsomely. Very disappointing to say the least!

ChuckGeb

For an illustrative visual on the potential impact in Appalachia see Antero Midstream earnings presentation slide #4. A lot of opportunities.

ChuckGeb

I think he is all in on building the Canada relations. Things just aren’t how it appears nor how the network news reports it.

ChuckGeb

You won’t hear this on Bloomberg. Doomberg on the matter starts about 27:30 https://youtu.be/enHNWDawcQo?si=q8hVgSkcs6WdYcAO Bonus material follows in The Week that Was piece: https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/the-week-that-was?r=umnhe&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=...

ChuckGeb

Clip dated 3/17/25 from Mornings with Maria. John Catsimatidis opines on Canada relations, potential gas pipeline to northeast, and $55-65 oil prices.

https://youtu.be/f2PnyiprRJ0?si=svc0TgIDaisSr9bs

ChuckGeb

I think your "right price" is spot on. It also seems consistent with the spread of the 2026 collars placed on Antero's production from their planned "lean gas" pads they are planning on drilling this year. The collars have a floor of 3.07 and a ceiling of 5.96 with the strip for ...

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