Energy Prospectus

ChuckGeb

Bond offering only available to qualified institutional investors unless you are a non-US person.

ChuckGeb

Nice analysis. My view on CRI]K is that they are significantly overvalued. I don’t follow CNX and my initial obstacle would be finding out the takeaway constraints for its gas which could limit its growth. CRK is in superior geographic location for shipments to Gulf Coast. While I am not touting CRK...

ChuckGeb

Likewise EOG is set up well with its South Texas Dorado gas play and Black Stone Minerals with its royalty concentration in Shelby Trough. Both companies in my opinion are “on sale”.

ChuckGeb

The points listed by Dan and the level of confidence displayed by Wolf Wregner yesterday confirmed the confidence in execution of the plan. Great luncheon. Expect this company to provide transparent credible guidance with my expectation they will over deliver. Great entry point now before announceme...

ChuckGeb

I am extremely impressed with management of this company. Oil names out of favor right now, small caps to an extreme. Expect for duration of Trump admin. Go gassers for the sizzle. REPX however in my opinion has displayed a thoughtful, disciplined, and conservative business plan that is rare for a c...

ChuckGeb

A worthwhile listen that discusses the needs, the applications, and the bounds of AI.
https://youtu.be/id4YRO7G0wE?si=wgL4-SBpD5RtuxIm
Enjoy if you gave 25 minutes.

ChuckGeb

Both McDonald and Hay are very biased to commodities investments as am I. The issue is at the flash point of a market drop all investable assets take a hit with many of the best sold off to cover the losses on the worst. The message to me is that there may come a better entry point in the not too di...

ChuckGeb

In today’s edition of The Turning Point Larry McDonald announced the ‘Raise Cash Alert is High” based on: “over the weekend we have a) the U.S. Treasury Secretary instructing Walmart to “eat” some tariffs, b) the reconciliation bill failing in the House, and c) a Moody’s credit downgrade tossed on U...

ChuckGeb

https://x.com/ericnuttall/status/1923365731883721005?s=61

Eric Nuttall expresses opposition to offer.

ChuckGeb

I really like Meg. Never heard of Strathcona. Need to learn more. I really liked Silver Bow and am still trying to get comfortable with Crescent. Meg has been buying back so much stock that at the rate they are going in a few more years my personal shares might be significant.

ChuckGeb

MacroVoices #479 Anas Alhajji: What Do Saudi Arabia & Allies in OPEC+ Want from Accelerating the Unwinding of Voluntary Cuts?

https://bit.ly/43ldvBg

ChuckGeb

During the three months ended March 31, 2025, we sold non-core assets to unrelated third-party buyers for $6.9 million in aggregate cash proceeds and recorded a gain of $10.9 million on the sale of such assets. In addition, in March 2025, we entered into the purchase and sale agreement to sell certa...

ChuckGeb

It’s very clear to me, a year later, that the Silver Bow shareholders got the short end of the Crescent Energy merger. I am sure the former management of SBOW came out great, and while I haven’t analyzed it, I am confident KKR is being rewarded handsomely. Very disappointing to say the least!

ChuckGeb

For an illustrative visual on the potential impact in Appalachia see Antero Midstream earnings presentation slide #4. A lot of opportunities.

ChuckGeb

I think he is all in on building the Canada relations. Things just aren’t how it appears nor how the network news reports it.

ChuckGeb

You won’t hear this on Bloomberg. Doomberg on the matter starts about 27:30 https://youtu.be/enHNWDawcQo?si=q8hVgSkcs6WdYcAO Bonus material follows in The Week that Was piece: https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/the-week-that-was?r=umnhe&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=...

ChuckGeb

Clip dated 3/17/25 from Mornings with Maria. John Catsimatidis opines on Canada relations, potential gas pipeline to northeast, and $55-65 oil prices.

https://youtu.be/f2PnyiprRJ0?si=svc0TgIDaisSr9bs

ChuckGeb

I think your "right price" is spot on. It also seems consistent with the spread of the 2026 collars placed on Antero's production from their planned "lean gas" pads they are planning on drilling this year. The collars have a floor of 3.07 and a ceiling of 5.96 with the strip for ...

ChuckGeb

My observation of natural gas price spikes over many years is that they never last long and are typically followed by a steep fall in prices. I am bullish on gas fundamentals but the industry has typically never exercised discipline and it seems the only constraint on overproduction is low prices an...

ChuckGeb

Antero Resources targets $3.4 Bcfe daily production with 2025 hedging strategies May 01, 2025 3:04 PM ET Antero Resources Corporation (AR) StockAI-Generated Earnings Calls Insights Earnings Call Insights: Antero Resources Corporation (AR) Q1 2025 Management View CEO Paul Rady highlighted the company...

ChuckGeb

An excerpt from Doomberg's piece today which is one of his best, recounting his three recent calls on the electrical grid vulnerability with renewables, the Canadian elections and impact on US relations, and the Saudi Surrender which partially follows: President Trump has made no secret of his inten...

ChuckGeb

John Johnson: “Around 11:41 EST this post hit the wires: “Saudi Arabia has signaled that it is unwilling to prop up the oil market with further supply cuts and can sustain prolonged period of low oil prices, Reuters reports, citing five unidentified sources with knowledge of the matter.” WTI opened ...

ChuckGeb

I am perplexed as your reasoning of updating forecasts and valuations right before earnings release and then again right after the release. What is your point?

ChuckGeb

Three-Year Outlook ▪ $650 - $700 million annual capex 2025-2027 ▪ <50% reinvestment rate at $3.75 while growing production ▪ Adds ~400 Mmcfe to daily production ▪ Cumulative 2025-2027 FCF of ~$2.5 billion(a) Growth Wedge into Increasing Demand ▪ 300 Mmcf/d incremental processing secured (2026) ▪ 250...

ChuckGeb

They indicate 20% growth thru 2027 with 50% reinvestment rate. Pretty impressive. I am interested in where the takeaway out of basin or increased in-basin demand is coming from.

ChuckGeb

I am getting trounced by the Panicans today. Cash flow per share is not falling as fast as the multiple fraction being applied to it.

ChuckGeb

Felix is the man with the crystal ball!

ChuckGeb

Agree with your strategy. Can’t go much lower, will appreciate significantly, but the timing for realization of appreciation is uncertain. Small but important market. When the hedge funds and Jim Cramer bunch pile back in will make things frothy.

ChuckGeb

Watch Doomberg blow the moderator’s mind as he matter of factly declares the end of OPEC and a rapid transition of the oil markets to King Gas. Look for data center buildout in the Permian. My thoughts based upon recent Doom berg published pieces, is that after Carney is elected in Canada and new tr...

ChuckGeb

This is a thin market place with not a lot of liquidity. Hedge funds and herd investors can turn things in either direction. Right now SPUT (SRUUF) and the quality miners are trading at rock bottom prices. May have a bit more downside but a significant amount of upside for the foreseeable future. Mi...

ChuckGeb

FYI. As part of Doomberg 4 year anniversary they have released an online 104 minute presentation on Energy Fundamentals Every Investor Should Know for all existing and new subscribers. Just putting this out there for those interested. I have found the subscription to be a good complement to EPG.

ChuckGeb

On current challenges, opportunities, and advantage Canadian oil companies with long lived reserves. And coming M&A to add cheap reserves (big fishes eat the little ones)

https://youtu.be/ee-1_p74w68?si=vzzEogGfsZzHtVc3

ChuckGeb

Ted Oakley on Second Generation Wealth (short clip)

https://youtu.be/14mdxCQ6KQI?si=ap2QOD8HyPfuDSp1

ChuckGeb

From December 2024. Insightful

https://youtu.be/cYZqkVGOT4g?si=V-oskrg6kZ6PnxSS

ChuckGeb

We should acknowledge that America is in a civil war as well as a trade war. There’s no point in dancing around the fact that Trump’s opposition would relish a financial crisis to get rid of him or tie him up in courts again. And that team Trump at the FBI and DOJ are investigating sources of stunni...

ChuckGeb

https://www.youtube.com/live/H61Ns6HseA4?si=MnWP_0Bt1vTBSVZv

Stephanie Pomboy views on the current economic and market challenges

Worthwhile listening

ChuckGeb

Trump inherited an economy that was in dire shape. The Obiden adminstration couldn't send $billions out the door fast enough before 1/20. Yellen financed the massive government debt with short term T Bills. Bessent is faced with refinancing $8 trillion of debt this year, a majority of which is T Bil...

ChuckGeb

Trump seems to have pulled together a massive coalition of allies waiting in line to make a deal while isolating China who is looking like a bloated rat trapped in a corner. He has played his hand to perfection. Of course it is too early to declare success but I am all in behind Trump. He has manage...

ChuckGeb

See today’s Doomberg “As the Pieces Lie’ to see the real intrinsic value of Crescent, that being significant gas reserves. My hope is that Crescent pauses its business model of growth thru acquisition to focus on the obvious best acquisition opportunity, that being its own stock. They have put toget...

ChuckGeb

I consider Pocahontas to be an incredibly discredible source!!!

ChuckGeb

https://youtu.be/VXEMDojvwzQ?si=udhCS3gnKghkA4K0

Recorded pre Friday massacre.

ChuckGeb

https://youtu.be/zjQDT12oM4E?si=QevYPGkxSw_GMGuQ

ChuckGeb

https://youtu.be/zjQDT12oM4E?si=QevYPGkxSw_GMGuQ

ChuckGeb

My hunch on the OPEC announcement is that there was a deal made with Saudi because Trump's plan in addition to Drill Baby Drill is "Bomb Bomb Bomb Iran". Time will tell. I don't think it is going to be that long. Purely speculation but if you listen to what Trump says and realize he is the...

ChuckGeb

Not only that but where are all the workers coming from? My view is this was a massive sucker punch to get better trade deals around the world, a classic Trump negotiating tactic that has had dire (hopeully) immediate unintended economic consequences on the US citizens. We will see what rabbit he ca...

ChuckGeb

Happy Friday. Glad the beating has stopped for the weekend. Part II of the Interview with Wealthion notes of the session: https://youtu.be/BAAobevohdI Are the U.S. and global markets on the edge of a massive regime change? In this high-impact Part II, The Bear Traps Report founder and bestselling au...

ChuckGeb

This appears to have been taped before the Thursday Liberation aftermath but it is very prescient. It is Part 1 with Part 2 to follow today? Worth listening. Larry McDonald

https://youtu.be/BAAobevohdI?si=Ye1jLG5R0x7xc5Vm

ChuckGeb

Thanks. So they traded the natural gas upside to protect their distributions. their reporting and the recent profile are a bit confusing in that they report production as boepd while they are heavily weighted to gas. Thanks again for the analysis. It seems that security is more important than the up...

ChuckGeb

The Green Chicken provides his expert opinions

https://youtu.be/Qbf5gKSPrlM?si=v5ym-DHBwIwD68ZT

ChuckGeb

Do BSM’s hedges limit their upside ie swaps or collars vs puts that cover downside risk only?

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