Search found 28 matches

by Hawker99
Tue May 28, 2024 10:10 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Baytex - high risk, high reward?
Replies: 4
Views: 4237

Re: Baytex - high risk, high reward?

"• Baytex sells its heavy oil (27% of total) at a substantial discount (-$ 24/bbl) to WTI. " As the TMX pipeline just delivered it's first cargo to the coast the WSC heavy oil discount has closed up substantially. Now about a $11.10 differential. Going forward should be a big bump in a qua...
by Hawker99
Mon Mar 25, 2024 9:51 am
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: HFI like PR
Replies: 1
Views: 1564

Re: HFI like PR

Like comparisons like this. Thanks.
What's also interesting, their 6 month charts are almost identical.
Both up about 31%
by Hawker99
Wed Jan 24, 2024 1:39 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Diamondback Energy (FANG) Update - Jan 24
Replies: 2
Views: 1420

Re: Diamondback Energy (FANG) Update - Jan 24

Raymond James was out today on APA and they had this to say in summation: RECOMMENDATION APA possesses one of the best 2024 FCF yields, substantial commodity exposure (unhedged on oil), and significant resource potential in Suriname. With at least ~60% of yearly FCF going to shareholders, APA also b...
by Hawker99
Thu Mar 02, 2023 2:07 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Ranger Oil (ROCC) being acquired by Baytex - Feb 28
Replies: 17
Views: 8878

Re: Ranger Oil (ROCC) being acquired by Baytex - Feb 28

Here is a video interview from today on BNN TV with a top Canadian oil fund manager. He likes BTE and the deal of them merging with ROCC. Those who currently own ROCC may want to hang on to BTE shares when the deal closes https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/very-meaningful-upside-ahead-for-the-energy-...
by Hawker99
Wed Mar 01, 2023 10:54 am
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Ranger Oil (ROCC) being acquired by Baytex - Feb 28
Replies: 17
Views: 8878

Re: Ranger Oil (ROCC) being acquired by Baytex - Feb 28

I currently have a position in BTE and they are a good operator who has a lot of free cash flow and are paying down debt quickly. Their Canadian clearwater assets are some of the most profitable wells in NA. Combining ROCC with the current BTE Eagleford assets will lead to improved synergies. Here i...
by Hawker99
Thu Jan 12, 2023 7:47 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Sweet 16 Price Targets - Jan 10
Replies: 2
Views: 1676

Re: Sweet 16 Price Targets - Jan 10

TOP WELL REPORT – November volumes – Ovintiv has a clean sweep of all of the top 15 natural gas wells January 9, 20231:34 PM The November data is out for the overall best oil and gas wells in Canada. As always, we use calendar day production metrics so these are real volumes produced in the month. F...
by Hawker99
Fri Nov 18, 2022 3:30 pm
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: Freeport LNG
Replies: 1
Views: 1228

Re: Freeport LNG

Freeport LNG targets mid-December restart for Texas export plant Nov 18 (Reuters) - U.S. liquefied natural gas company Freeport LNG said it was targeting a mid-December restart for its Texas export plant, which has been shut for six months after a fire. Freeport, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export f...
by Hawker99
Thu Nov 03, 2022 4:00 pm
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: The 'Real Cost" of renewable energy
Replies: 3
Views: 1650

Re: The 'Real Cost" of renewable energy

Actually, Wendy is even a worse deal. She lives 30 miles away and has no "transmission" in her car. You say, "why not fix it." She says she has no money to fix it. "Loan me some" You say , "OK, How much" Wendy, "$6 billion" You say, "What" ...
by Hawker99
Tue Apr 23, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: More buyouts coming.
Replies: 0
Views: 1308

More buyouts coming.

Analyst: Chevron-Anadarko deal is beginning of upstream wheeling and dealing By Mella McEwen, MRT.com/Midland Reporter-Telegram Published 3:39 pm CDT, Sunday, April 21, 2019 Analysts who study the oil and gas industry had been in suspense for months. They watched as crude prices sank 40 percent in t...
by Hawker99
Tue Apr 16, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: Forbes - Next Permian Basin Acquisition Target?
Replies: 1
Views: 1804

Forbes - Next Permian Basin Acquisition Target?

Robert Rapier - Contributor Energy Following the news that Chevron had agreed to pay a nearly 40% premium to acquire Anadarko Petroleum, investors quickly bid up the shares of other potential acquisition targets. As I argued in the previous article, I believe the Permian was the key to the Anadarko ...
by Hawker99
Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:25 am
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: BIG DEAL: Chevron to acquire Anadarko
Replies: 4
Views: 2740

Re: BIG DEAL: Chevron to acquire Anadarko

Per CNBC: Occidental bid more than $70 a share for Anadarko and is now considering options: Sources Key Points Occidental Petroleum bid more than $70 a share for Anadarko Petroleum in cash and stock, people familiar with the matter say. The bid was higher in price and contained more cash than the Ch...
by Hawker99
Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:40 pm
Forum: Picks and tips from the EP community
Topic: Denbury Resources (DNR) Update - April 11
Replies: 2
Views: 2419

Re: Denbury Resources (DNR) Update - April 11

Nice analyses. As a stockholder well remember that wrong headed DNR merger try for PVA was devastating for the stock price. Market well knew --DNR should have been paying off debt before they took on more assets way out of their core area of operations. Even now today, the stock price is way less th...
by Hawker99
Sun Mar 31, 2019 3:45 pm
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: Oil Price - March 29
Replies: 2
Views: 2104

Re: Oil Price - March 29

Saw this Art Berman.
Traders not near as long oil as most of 2018.
Looks like a lot of money may still flow in.

Art says,
Managed money funds have been cautious so far in 2019. Normalized net long positions for Brent + WTI are 50% lower than in 2018 and 8% lower than in 2017.
by Hawker99
Mon Mar 25, 2019 2:11 pm
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: Demand for natural gas is going way up
Replies: 3
Views: 2924

Re: Demand for natural gas is going way up

Yep, LNG got a long way to run yet. Here are a couple for your high income portfolio. GMLP Golar LNG Partners LP owns and operates floating storage regasification units (FSRUs) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers under long-term charters in Brazil, Indonesia, Jordan, Kuwait, and the United Arab...
by Hawker99
Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:56 pm
Forum: Picks and tips from the EP community
Topic: Denbury Resources (DNR) Update - March 21
Replies: 1
Views: 1787

Re: Denbury Resources (DNR) Update - March 21

As a DNR stockholder happy to see this deal ended. DNR price was crushed when deal was announced and has never come close since to it's oct high. Many saw the deal as a risky dilution. Adding eagleford assets complicated the company and made it hard to analyze so they have not participated in this 2...
by Hawker99
Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:47 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: SM and CRZO talk
Replies: 3
Views: 3194

Re: SM and CRZO talk

Agree. Think if it happens, will be stock for stock deal. If for instance, one shells out a bunch of cash for the other, think the market would crucify the acquirer thinking they would soon go to market for a secondary. Think the market wants increasing positive cash flow from companies NOW, and not...
by Hawker99
Mon Mar 18, 2019 12:37 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: SM and CRZO talk
Replies: 3
Views: 3194

SM and CRZO talk

(Bloomberg) -- Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc. is weighing a tie-up with U.S. energy explorer SM Energy Co., according to people familiar with the matter. Carrizo has held early-stage discussions with SM about a potential combination, the people said, asking not to not be identified because the informati...
by Hawker99
Sun Mar 17, 2019 12:54 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Sweet 16 Update - March 16
Replies: 2
Views: 2734

Re: Sweet 16 Update - March 16

Barron's had round table of oil analysts this weekend. Analyst David Heikkinen's Picks, liked the Permian specifically: "We see some of the best value in companies with Permian potential. Multiples of many companies in the Midland basin [a section of the Permian] have been compressed. We rate P...
by Hawker99
Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:36 pm
Forum: Picks and tips from the EP community
Topic: Running harder to increase production......................
Replies: 1
Views: 1707

Running harder to increase production......................

Interesting study how difficult and expensive it is to keep production up in the Permian shale. To win this game one better have very good rock. ***************************************************************************************** Keeping Up with the Older Generation Proves Costly and Futile in ...
by Hawker99
Thu Nov 01, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: NFX acquisition by Encana
Replies: 7
Views: 5410

Re: NFX acquisition by Encana

As a NFX investor I'm furious that management grabbed this offer. NFX stock price was about $32 Jan 1 and traded between $27 to $30 for the last 7 months. So cash flow and production substantially improves the last 2 quarters and the company pulls the trigger to sell itself just after the biggest ma...
by Hawker99
Wed Sep 26, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: Dan...question for you
Replies: 5
Views: 3735

Re: Dan...question for you

Considering how inexpensive natural gas sells for on a BTU basis, amazing to me that Americans still use over 3 billion gallons of heating oil per year. Mostly in the northeast.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/ind ... ng_oil_use
by Hawker99
Sun Sep 23, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Continental Resources (CLR)
Replies: 2
Views: 2616

Re: Continental Resources (CLR)

Interesting article on North Dakota oil production which just hit an all time high. What jumps out, is how much more efficient the rigs are compared to 6 years ago. One would think the development cost per barrel continues to fall , at least on the drilling side. ************************************...
by Hawker99
Tue Sep 11, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Picks and tips from the EP community
Topic: FANG and Carlyle Group, $620M
Replies: 2
Views: 2359

Re: FANG and Carlyle Group, $620M

This is also good news for VNOM.
by Hawker99
Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: FANG to buy Energen
Replies: 14
Views: 10367

Re: FANG to buy Energen

As pointed out previously VNOM will benefit from this deal. Looks like Mr Market agrees. Though oil is quite off it's highs of 3 weeks ago Vnom checked in with all time new high today.
https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=VNOM

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by Hawker99
Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: FANG to buy Energen
Replies: 14
Views: 10367

Re: FANG to buy Energen

A big winner on this deal medium to long term will be VNOM. They are the oil trust set up by FANG and get periodic drop downs from FANG. Fang gets bigger and that increases VNOM potential drop downs by 50%. VNOM pays out most of their cash flow in the form of distributions, that is at a current rate...
by Hawker99
Sun Aug 12, 2018 8:19 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Menacing charts.
Replies: 1
Views: 2113

Menacing charts.

Couple of charts here as part of an interesting article. First is the decline rates of the major shale fields in the U.S. Not a pretty site. It's a treadmill for a company to keep increasing production. Of course that's true for any oilco but in the shale it goes double --or triple. Second chart is ...
by Hawker99
Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Picks and tips from the EP community
Topic: Not all Permian decline rates created equal.................
Replies: 0
Views: 1173

Not all Permian decline rates created equal.................

Production engineers should be more involved in well planning, says WM's @RobertClarke_WM: "It's not ideal to design a complex well with a great initial potential rate if the design makes it challenging to keep it online for the next 20 years" https://www.mrt.com/business/oil/article/Repor...
by Hawker99
Mon Aug 06, 2018 5:51 pm
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: U.S. Oil Production Growth stalls
Replies: 3
Views: 2455

Re: U.S. Oil Production Growth stalls

Here is interesting series of charts on sagging oil production at a number of OCED countries.
And not even counting plunging Venezuela.

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