Energy Prospectus

dave_n

I'd also add that RRC, EQT, CRK, and AR all fell below their 50-day moving average this week.

dave_n

I believe that the selling pressure may also be caused by the limited duration stockholder rights plan that was passed to protect interests of long-term shareholders from takeover. If there was a big buyer out there (which I assume there was if they passed this plan), then that suitor is likely unlo...

dave_n

Dan, thanks for all the great info. Have you recently looked at CPG (Crescent Point Energy)? Not sure if you're open to another Canadian oil play. In my opinion, it's worth a look through their latest investor presentation. Netback around $60/Boe. Projected excess cash flow for 2022 of $1.2-1.4B usi...

dave_n

Dan, in my opinion, Texas RRC needs to limit production to provide the market assurance that producers won't ramp up production at first sight of $50 oil. Otherwise, the market participants will assume a return to prior production levels. Without some mandated cap (or massive consolidation), I just ...

dave_n

Dan, any sense on what is pressuring PAA? Of all pipeline companies, this one has a good dividend coverage ratio. They've improved their debt profile as well. The only thing I can think impacting them is that supply from Permian is at risk with low oil prices. I have to think with connections going ...

dave_n

Dan, I was going through your model of Gulfport this morning. Thank you as always. My concern is around their proved reserve calculation going into year-end. In looking at their 2018 10-K, there is following statement under "Proved Undeveloped Reserves": "As noted above, our December ...

dave_n

No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That would explain the precipitous drop today.

dave_n

Lonestar hit a 52 week low today. Anybody aware of what might be driving this after such a strong quarter? Especially on a day where oil is trending up?

dave_n

Overall, this sounds like good news. The two board members who are stepping down could be replaced by candidates with more energy experience. You can see profiles for Streller and Groeschel at link below: https://www.gulfportenergy.com/about/board-of-directors I also think suspending stock repurchas...

dave_n

And unfortunately, that puts you on the daily "most active" and "biggest losers" list. All stock deals dilute shareholder value and will not be perceived favorably by the market. If it's that good of a deal, pay cash.

dave_n

Dan, Any insight into these recent management changes at Gulfport? Resignation of VP Corporate Development & Strategy https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/874499/000119312519229295/d792793d8k.htm Resignation of CFO and rehire https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/874499/000119312519...

dave_n

Interesting Dan, thank you. Given we are going into fall, there probably isn't much downside risk on natural gas in the near-term. I took a look at UNG options for April 2020. You can buy UNG $18 Call April 17, 2020 for $3.39. With UNG currently trading at $19.50, you basically are paying $1.88 in t...

dave_n

I used to hold rig count as an indicator of oil production; however, production efficiency has improved so dramatically it no longer seems to hold the same correlation. While oil rigs have come down as outlined (and for that matter completions), production has gone up dramatically. See link below. h...

dave_n

Chuck, I think you just highlighted the underlying issue. Until the majors pull back on their supply growth forecasts, scarcity will not be a concern. And given that the Majors drilling program expansion continues regardless of price, it sure feels a lot like what OPEC was doing to flood the market ...

dave_n

There are many factors that I see impacting Natural Gas. Here are some of my observations... Market: While long-term fundamentals support growing domestic and international natural gas demand, the near-term market is over-supplied. To compound the near-term view, new pipeline capacity is coming onli...

dave_n

I just sold my Hi Crush. So it should start going up now...

dave_n

Thank you Dan.

dave_n

Dan, I'm interested in your assessment on Hi-Crush. My general sense from quarter is that they are losing propstream container crews (possibly to self-perform). Given their move to acquire software-based logistics solutions, I suspect that Solaris offering may be eroding their mine, move, manage str...

dave_n

I know I'm about to capitulate... And I consider myself a hardened investor...

dave_n

They just did a shelf registration to issue $300m more stock.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... 552ds4.htm

That's not good news.

dave_n

Expanding existing Preferred Stock offering to raise cash for a buyout sounds like a fantastic use of funds!

dave_n

Dan, I was looking through Sweet 16 filings this morning. Noticed that CPE filed a shelf registration. They aren't issuing new shares, but allowing capacity to expand authorizations on existing equities. See excerpt below of "Use of Proceeds" and link to filing. USE OF PROCEEDS Unless othe...

dave_n

Dan, that's great news. I hope Susan has a speedy recovery!

dave_n

Dan,

I'm hoping your wife's surgery was successful and she's doing well.

Keep us posted.

Dave

dave_n

Look at OAS May 17, 2019 option open interest!!!

Open interest for CRZO April 18, 2019 options also very high.

Virtually nothing open for SM.

dave_n

Let them keep blocking the pipelines. Companies are using FSRU's to feed their needs off coast of New England. Just means more demand for LNG capacity.

dave_n

While I was in SEC website, took a look at filings for CRZO and SM Energy. On Feb 12, SM Energy disclosed hiring Causeway Capital Management as an Advisor. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/893538/000094562119000075/causewaysmenergy13ga4q2018.htm Also some beneficial ownership disclosures by S...

dave_n

Oasis Petroleum recently updated their bylaws to allow for majority holders over three years to nominate board members.... Stumbled across it this morning... Usually changes like these are great tells.... https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1486159/000148615919000004/oas8-k2x28x19.htm Item 5.03 ...

dave_n

Please see article at link below: https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/utility-scale-solar-projections-now-outrank-pre-tariff-forecasts#gs.1ocoqn The number of companies initiating solar projects is projected to increase in years to come. The market is very active as costs per watt continue ...

dave_n

As a way to boost my returns, I typically buy options into the earnings call and sell before the call. EOG is usually one name you can count on to gain some momentum going into earnings. For this last earnings announcement, there was none. That was the case for most of the energy companies going int...

dave_n

I think a more aggressive stance would bring more value to the share price. Plus it would give them more control of assets to moderate production.

dave_n

Sure would be nice if they used some of their excess cash flow to acquire one of the many under-valued gassers. But they won't come and talk to us to hear what we think.

dave_n

I don't think this sentiment is going to change until M&A picks up. I personally wish some of these companies would start M&A instead of buying back stock. CRZO would make a great target.

dave_n

This site has some great info on capacity availability and utilization for LNG facilities, along with produciton

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/topics/ ... al-gas-lng

dave_n

I don't know if you're interested in LNG draw downs, but Celsius Energy has some great info. http://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/map2.html If you look at slide "Total Weekly Natural Gas Feedgas Delivery to Sabine Pass and Cove Point LNG Plants" you can see drop off of production on week ending ...

dave_n

EIA provided updated short-term energy outlook for natural gas: The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $3.13/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in January, down 91 cents/MMBtu from December. Despite a cold snap in late January, average temperatures for the month were milder than normal in ...

dave_n

Dan, I've been through school of hard knocks on UNG this year. Things I wish I knew before heading down that path, which could help someone else in the group... 1. UNG sells front-month contract on 14th-16th of every month. Usually 15th, with some lag depending on market conditions. So right now, th...

dave_n

Tanker rates confirm OPEC curtailment.

dave_n

Glad to hear you're all having a great time! I'm sure the conversations are great. Have a safe and wonderful rest of your trip!

Dave

dave_n

Dan, Here is a link to a video on Amerigo Resources website where the CEO is interviewed. They talk about copper supply/demand imbalance (good stuff is around 8:30m into video). Key issue has been low copper prices which has discouraged investment in new development. As copper supplies become taxed,...

dave_n

This morning I went through all of Dan's updated forecast models, noting companies where Dan's estimates beat consensus earnings in both Q4 2018 and FY 2019. My objective was to find companies that could beat Q4 earnings AND guide higher in 2019. My thinking, if you can find companies that beat earn...

dave_n

Dan, Do they specify how much of the 8bcfd is from improved gas capturing from existing oil wells (reduced flaring) vs. new oil well drilling? Trying to understand if TPH oil well drilling plans are a bit optimistic given current oil price. I'm generally aware of the 3+bcfd associated gas coming out...

dave_n

Thank you Lealbert. Great info. For any stocks that are now fallen angels, I always like to go back and understand what indicator may have given a prelude to their decline. There are three metrics I've found to be very good "tells". First is negative operating cash flow in a quarter. In AM...

dave_n

Jan. 23 Daily Hightower Report on Natural Gas "We attribute the initial gains this morning in natural gas to the extreme oversold condition of the market yesterday. However technical traders will note that the market filled a gap left earlier in the month and now appears to have bounced from th...

dave_n

An excerpt from today's Hightower Daily Update on Energy for Natural Gas: "The natural gas market enters the new trading week in an old gap area and with vulnerable charts. While the market might draft some support from a four rig decline in gas drilling last week, temperatures in the US look t...

dave_n

Dan,

Any sense on what is driving drop in natural gas prices today? Is it profit taking? I can't seem to find anything on the move.

Thx
Dave

dave_n

I started following because it's a great view into volume movements. If rates go up, typically someone is shipping more than they should. If it's not of interest to group, I'll stop posting.

dave_n

Weber weekly confirming reducing rates in near term.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp ... y02-19.pdf

dave_n

Here is December update from Teekay Tanker. https://www.teekay.com/blog/2018/12/20/teekay-marine-markets-tanker-update-december-2018/ Seeing lower tanker rates in Q1 and early Q2 due to OPEC cuts and refinery maintenance (conversion to IMO 2020). Sees OPEC cuts as more balancing in nature (temporary...

dave_n

Dan,

UNG will be shifting from NYMEX February 2019 to March 2019 physical contracts tomorrow through Thursday. If there were storage supply issues, it seems like March contracts have potential to get bid up more than February? Am I understanding this correctly?

Thx
Dave

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