Energy Prospectus

sl6886

I'm posting this so people can poke holes in my world view - lord knows I've lost enough to retire on over natural gas and I would like to avoid that mistake again. But what if, like a stopped clock, G&R is finally right in their prediction of being at the threshold of plateauing domestic produc...

sl6886

Cliff Try these. Supply / Demand https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/weekly/ Then, if you want to see historical production by FORMATION it's harder to find but not impossible Navigate to EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook, then Natural Gas, then Monthly-by-formation. Send that to an Excel and you can graph...

sl6886

I've largely disengaged from this message board not because of "negative comments" but because of the admonishment and threat of censorship (prior comments) of the same. If someone doesn't like the comments, then don't read them. Frazer's comments regarding aren't incendiary, but certainly...

sl6886

Damn, there's just no relief in this sector.

Remind me again what tanker companies you like and why?

sl6886

Hey Allen46 How about you take a breath and ease up with the attacks? A few months back I told you that your tone was a bit out of place for a forum like this when Frazer and I were lamenting the fact that Dan was saying VITAL was worth $120 and we were getting killed. Now, you're back to cracking a...

sl6886

Early on with Earthstone, Dan touted the Mgmt. team as part of the valuation. In the Earthstone merger deal, the market sent ESTE (the seller) up and Permian Resources (PR - The buyer) sideways, so the market obviously thought highly of the deal. Here, good Mgmt. produced, in part, a good deal. For ...

sl6886

Based on what your showing here, the Private Equity people cashed out at a good price to a somewhat motivated buyer. Vital seems like their more interested in trading equity for FCF to help them pay their debt, and they didn't get a great price. On the surface, this does not appear to be a great dea...

sl6886

The Saudi Prince should announce that he's considering another cut in production in response to "market manipulation" detrimental to the balance of supply/demand. This amount should be equal to the proposed amount from the SPR. Also, I thought there was some type of law that negated all sa...

sl6886

Dan, Wondering if you have anyone who is an expert on the structural aspects of the SPR. I could only find this article from 2016, and would be highly interested an updated status on the salt domes from structural and go-forward basis. https://www.aapg.org/publications/news/spheresofinfluence/detail...

sl6886

All If you want a GREAT history lesson on Fed tightening and the corresponding fall-out, I'm providing a link here for a website that I ran across. The author is similar is depth to G&R, but hyper-focused on the role of money supply, interest rates, and credit. I know I just lost some of you wit...

sl6886

I've held my peace on this company as long as I can. Hemisphere was a 15 bagger from nearly $.10 to $1.50, but then has come all the way back to $.90 and has been stuck in a range for about 18 months. Yes, you're correct that with the current assets they hold they're capped. While they have two prop...

sl6886

The market value is reflected at the open and like Frazer said, the insiders who have knowledge of the value of the company have agreed to essentially a 15%-20% premium at $18.5 + per share. This premium is the "market" at this time.

sl6886

Dan,

What high yield companies do not belong in an IRA. I know about Blackstone, but I'm wondering if there are any others? I believe you said VNOM is C-Corp status even though its a partnership?

Thanks

sl6886

Baytex up big today. What's the scoop?

sl6886

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Friday that crude oil blending and under-reported oil output were key reasons for recently high adjustment figures in

What is crude oil blending? Who does it and how do they account for it?

sl6886

Since range is being taken over by pioneer, who would be possible suitors for Comstock or antero since we seem to be at the bottom

sl6886

Dan

Is there a way to know how much of Comstock's gas is sold as LNG overseas and if so, then at what price do they sell it at? Henry Hub?
Thanks

sl6886

In general, we don't really play the Troll game here, so if anyone is implying that Frazer is trying to manipulate or front-run this group for then that person is out of step with this message board. Frazer is not short Comstock but he did lose money on the trade. I know that because I've followed h...

sl6886

Yep, I understand that we export to them, which is why I put “net” of 6 BCF inbound from Canada historically, but it jumped 3 BCF in one week, which is both material and highly unusual. Wondered if you knew what the deal was?

sl6886

Dan, Historically, it would appear that net Canadian imports average around 6 BCF per day, and exports of natural gas via pipeline to Mexico are about this same amount, so basically a wash. I'm seeing where Canadian Natural Gas imports jumped 3 BCF this week. What's the story? Do they have this much...

sl6886

Dan,

I tried to open the Comstock and Antero Forecast Spreadsheets and they would not render on my computer. It's entirely possible that its just my computer so I'm checking to see if anyone else having this issue?

Thanks

sl6886

Dan Did you get any sense from Don what the CapEx would be for 2023? Hemisphere doesn't have that much in the way of facilities and as they have been upgrading all their equipment/facilities over the last year so I'm thinking CapEx will be decidedly lower. I know the Corporate Presentation says $16m...

sl6886

Company has reportedly approval for up to $8,000,000 to buy back shares. 10,000 trade volume over last several days, I think. Since the company trades at $1 now, the math is easy - 8,000,000 shares divided by 253 trading days = 31,000 shares per day. Great 3 year performance, but now Mgmt. seems int...

sl6886

Freeport delayed to 1st quarter - I'm beginning to suspect CIA involvement.

sl6886

Dan,

Apparently Tutor Jones Pickering downgraded several gassers including AR and EQT. I know you subscribe to multiple services so I'm wondering if you have access to their publications as it would be interesting to hear why they feel a downgrade was warrented.

Thanks

sl6886

Based on the last earnings call, I believe Management will continue down the conservative route of reducing portions of outstanding debt (their 2029 and 2030 notes) before anything else, and then they would increase their base dividend, which they took great pride in restoring. There was zero discus...

sl6886

Unfortunately, wasn't able to make the luncheon as planned as I had to cover things coming out of the holiday.

Can you elaborate on the high points from the meeting? Anything new?

Thanks
Scott

sl6886

Dan

The EIG has a 365 day chart of Natural Gas consumption/demand from the EIA. Would you happen to have data where we can see the 5 year history of usage by consumption source?

Thanks

sl6886

Dan For Comstock, during the Q3 Earnings call the CEO/CFO said that paying down debt is their first priority and then the CEO mentioned the remaining $100 million of revolving debt would be extinguished in Q4. My question is, after that, how easily can Comstock acquire the remaining structured debt ...

sl6886

Victoria Nuland has been at the center of Ukraine since the overthrow of the legitimate government back in 2014 (Obama/Biden). The video you link to I believe is from February where she's threatening the Nordstream 2. Declaring sanctions, and most certainly blowing up two of another country's pipeli...

sl6886

Dan, I would like to offer a bit of constructive criticism regarding Friday's webinar with Mobius. The speakers were subject matter experts in Oil & Gas. Some of their discussion and nomenclature (industry jargon) was beyond an intermediate audience level competency. Notwithstanding the above, w...

sl6886

A reverse split is a gimmick. Selling the company? Not right now, as the buyer would get all the value (look at Harold Hamm's offer to Continental). The value right now is in the rising FCF. Hemisphere should be debt free in Q3, with rising FCF from both debt savings and increased production. The po...

sl6886

Amen to that.

sl6886

Dan, In listening to the Comstock Quarterly Earnings Presentation, the CEO and CFO both agreed that $5 natural gas is the "Base Case" for next year. Additionally, you're using either $4.75 or $5.00 now, also. Admittedly, I do not understand the seasonality or inventory/storage versus produ...

sl6886

Dan, I've seen you run through a Natural Gas chart that you obviously maintain by week, where you show average and then where you project usage and storage levels. I'm trying to get a sense of usage versus storage and I think your chart would be a missing link. Please let m know if you can post it t...

sl6886

Just so we're clear - Jamie Dimon gets paid, and that's all he cares about. He was talking about ESG in 2020, and he's changed his tune now, but if you really listen to what he's saying, he's laying the groundwork for carbon credits, and guess who gets to make a market in them, trade them, inventory...

sl6886

I'm not so sure they've demonstrated the best judgement over the last 2 years. Their Management make me nervous, in spite of their assets, as they seemed to be caught flat footed by the Mexican Government. Who's to say Biden doesn't take a whack at them with some stupid new reg..

sl6886

Comstock has collars associated with some of their production in 2023. What does a collar do, what benefit does it confer and what are the intrinsic and out of pocket $ exchanges ? I’m pretty sure I like collars better than swaps but I think your going to tell me the upside is capped for little remu...

sl6886

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-07-08/

sl6886

Nice presentation (great info and insight) - thanks for sharing

sl6886

Check out this video that confirms Dan’s assertion that OPEC is out of spare capacity. Macron can’t contain himself and Biden is absolutely CLUELESS!!! Audio is somewhat hard to hear but the French leader is clearly bothered by the lack of spare capacity https://twitter.com/Amena__Bakr/status/154151...

sl6886

You should apply his favorite metrics to Hemisphere 70% FCF next year Could buy back the company in less than 18 months at today’s market price and Dan’s 2023 valuation And they’re paying a 6.25% dividend and buying back stock The only issue is don simmons will not firmly commit to the type of retur...

sl6886

Dan So, I’m looking at your 2023 Hemisphere cash flow, and would like some confirmation/help with some modeling: Assumptions Assuming 100mm shares outstanding, and $100 WTI $95 million cash flow from operations- your number Projecting $25 million CapEx - I know they’re at 16mm, but trying to be cons...

sl6886

The reported 10-point executive letter response to the President had the below language for point # 4 Accelerate LNG Exports and Approve Pending LNG Applications Congress should amend the Natural Gas Act to streamline the Department of Energy (DOE) to a single approval process for all U.S. liquefied...

sl6886

This is really a great idea. It would be a surprise if everyone isn't completely for this, and THANK GOD they are "actively" looking into this. Whew!!!! For a while there, I was worried that they weren't doing anything to help. Maybe they could set up an Energy Exchange and have Hunter's f...

sl6886

The way I read the Hemisphere dividend, it's 6%'ish right now, but if you look at 2023 production and cash flow, this thing is going to yield 15% based on paying out 30% (variable) FCF. So then one wonders what if they can't buy back enough stock or find an appropriate bolt-on acquisition with the r...

sl6886

And the remainder of the $12,000,000 in debt will be extinguished with the remaining FCF, which means that can be recycled next year into more goodies for the shareholders, or another $.10 per share

sl6886

Dan, I ran across this company "Tellurian", which is based in Houston. The have permits for a large LNG facility in Lake Charles, and seem to have core competencies in construction and asset trading within in Oil/Gas, but they are talking about being a "fully integrated" Gas comp...

sl6886

Dan

So in Q2 2022, the 615,000 (last line) is unhedged, and compiled at the price deck assumed price, correct?

sl6886

For Silverbow, Company is predominately gas - think about only 16% oil They were 62% hedged as of Feb 22, and it goes up to 70% for nat gas in the third quarter and back to 64% in the fourth quarter. Next year it drops to 30% for gas. For oil, it looks like their average hedge price is $56 for the y...

Search found 141 matches