Energy Prospectus

ajootian

Congratulations on your option purchase Dan, great call there. I also bought a few Nov. '25 $15 calls along with some stock, on the day they announced 3Q earnings. I need to correct something I'd said earlier. In the final prospectus for the offering, which they filed with the SEC yesterday, it turn...

ajootian

Thanks for your thoughts Chuck. Pretty impressive move in the stock today. The offering was obviously way oversubscribed and the green shoe will obviously be exercised. I imagine that SEI management must have been tempted to increase the size of the offering, but I give them credit for not doing tha...

ajootian

Nice to see these guys thinking the same way I am -- they just announced a secondary offering. Not so sure I would have offered that many shares (6.5M), but presumably they have a good sense that they can get that number of shares sold without tanking the price too much. They are using Santander US ...

ajootian

Looking forward to seeing your revised forecast on these guys Dan. Since the newly ordered equipment won't start coming in until 4Q of next year, it looks like next year's numbers won't go up that much, but 2026 should get real interesting. With $130M of cap ex budgeted for the current quarter, and ...

ajootian

Dan, curious what you think of this stock after today's earnings release and CC. It looks like their power solutions business is really taking off. The stock is trading at right around your PT from a few months ago but I would imagine that you would be jacking that up at this point....

ajootian

Petroleum economist, how are you defining 'solvency'?

Looking at the trading prices of their bonds, it seems that the bond market does not share your view of CIVI's financial situation. For example, their 8.375% notes due 7/1/28 last changed hands @ 104.

ajootian

Thanks for getting that update right out Dan, this one is looking pretty interesting at this point. It will be interesting to see if any of the other analysts follow Siebert's lead and move up their price targets. Am I right that they set new hedges anticipating the new production from the acquisiti...

ajootian

Really great to see the interest in GRNT here, and great to see that you've added it to your watchlist Dan. This stock would make a great addition to either your Small Cap or your High Yield portfolio. In response to the question on what the upside here is, you need only to look at the 3 year price ...

ajootian

Think of GRNT as a "baby NOG", but on steroids. They are growing production at double-digits, all while keeping debt at a mere 0.2X last quarter's annualized EBITDA. They just did a secondary offering for their large shareholder and at the price of the offering the stock is trading at near...

ajootian

Solaris Oilfield announced 2Q numbers on Thursday and they did not disappoint. They are on track to increase EPS by >40% this year vs. last year. This is a great example of what a small company can do when they design a 'better mousetrap' in a niche market. In SOI's case, their proppant management s...

ajootian

Dan, any thoughts on the 24% move in the stock price over the last 8 trading days? I haven't seen any news or commentary on them.

ajootian

Genesis Energy LP (GEL) -- Great SA Piece Calling For Double-Triple in 3 Yrs. See https://seekingalpha.com/article/4566401-my-top-2023-pick-genesis-energy Best part of the article follows: "Future Valuation from 2023-2025 Genesis has guided to a "mid $700 million" EBITDA guide for 202...

ajootian

This unusual MLP offers a good place to in effect "hide out" during these uncertain times, IMO. They have an eclectic mix of businesses, the two largest of which are offshore pipelines and soda ash mining. They are in the midst of a significant growth phase for both of these businesses, wh...

ajootian

USEG has a decent amount of its oil hedged. They don't have very much gas hedged but gas represents only a small portion of their revenues. They don't have much debt -- their ratio of debt/EBITDA (projected) is only something like 0.5X. So I'm not too worried about whether they will survive this dow...

ajootian

Thanks Dan, and great to hear that you know some of the directors there.

They just updated their presentation, which has some helpful color on their latest acquisition and some other good stuff. Web site is usnrg.com.

ajootian

Great to hear of your interest Dan. USEG announced last week that the PV10 value of their PDP reserves @ 6/30, proforma for their acquisition that closed a month later, was $167M using SEC pricing, which was $86 for oil and $5 for gas on that date. The EV of the company, taking into account the debt...

ajootian

Dan, I agree that STR now has about 83.5M shares out or maybe 1-2M shares less. On the proforma balance sheets that were included in the proxy statement for the Desert Peak transaction, they show (pg. 77) 11.9M Class A shares and 71.8M shares. At Note G of those statements (see pg. 82), they indicat...

ajootian

I added to what was already a pretty large position in this on yesterday's pullback. I believe that was just a knee-jerk reaction to the reverse split. I believe that it is likely that they will provide initial guidance on the merged company in conjunction with the announcement of the completion of ...

ajootian

Dan, as I understand the merger transaction, the 235M shares that are being issued will be added to, vs. in place of, the shares that FLMN currently as out.

Also, on your projection, I am expecting the merged company to generate a lot higher lease bonus fees than what you are projecting.

ajootian

....despite recent gains in share price. This nanocap has seen its stock price appreciate recently, on high volume, yet it still sells at a 12% discount to the PV10 value of just its proved developed reserves as of last quarter end, at SEC pricing ($75 oil price held constant). The PV10 value at cur...

ajootian

NFE Application for Fast LNG Solution in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Advances April 26, 2022 at 6:00 AM EDT NEW YORK – New Fortress Energy Inc. (NASDAQ: NFE) (together with its affiliates, “NFE”) today announced that the U.S. Coast Guard, in coordination with the Maritime Administration, has affirmed th...

ajootian

...while the sun shines. I've bought quite a bit of this stock, mostly over the last week. The stock has gone idiotic ever since they made that blockbuster announcement on 3/31, in which they said they had filed to build an offshore LNG liquefaction facility 16 miles off the coast of Louisiana, and ...

ajootian

A few thoughts on your forecast Dan: 1) I believe your projection of G&A costs is going to be way too high. The merger presentation at slide 8 indicates that they think they can get G&A down to $3M a quarter, combined. That seems that it could be challenging yet still feasible since it doesn...

ajootian

The most intriguing comp for post-merger FLMN is Viper (VNOM). FLMN post-merger is guiding to 14K boed production which is just under half of the 28.9K boed that Viper is guiding to. Yet the EV of FLMN post-merger ($1.76B) is not even a third of VNOM's ($5.54B). There should be some sort of discount...

ajootian

Thanks so much for taking the time to type out your notes Dan, extremely helpful. When he said that they think that a successful CO2 flood could double production & reserves, is that a doubling of production & reserves of just the 5 producers in the pilot, or a doubling of production & r...

ajootian

Thanks Dan. To your last point about the increase in reserves from waterfloods & CO2 floods --- it would be interesting to know whether any of the increase in reserves from this pilot EOR project was included in the 9/30/21 reserve report (as PUDs) or whether any increase would not get booked un...

ajootian

Thanks Dan, very helpful info. The key question at this point is, what value should investors place on the EOR potential of this company. So far Riley has not really given us any way to try to estimate this potential value. They say that there has been extensive EOR projects both to the north and so...

ajootian

Dan, great to see that you are writing up this company. BTW the ticker is actually REPX, not RPEX. Looks like they had another good quarter. Here are some questions that I've thought about so far, for when you speak to the IR guy on Wednesday. These might be answered in the CC tomorrow of course. 1)...

ajootian

Thanks for the info Dan, very helpful. By any chance do you (or anyone else) know offhand which of the companies in your coverage has the highest amount of their '22 oil production hedged? I know I can check this for myself but I haven't had a chance to do that yet. Next question would be, might the...

ajootian

I'm a big RPEX fan so its great to see that you are considering covering them. The recent drawdown in the stock price is puzzling but I'm hoping that its nothing more than the fact that they have not put out much news in a while. They could also be getting some pretty big cost overruns on their EOR ...

ajootian

...A Bigger Dividend Is on the Horizon. -- Barrons.com BY Dow Jones & Company, Inc. — 11:24 AM ET 11/03/2021 The new Chesapeake Energy ( CHK) is making the most of the high energy prices resulting from supplies industrywide coming back more slowly than demand in the recovery from the Covid-19 pa...

ajootian

...to be increased. This E&P operates in the NW shelf, San Andres formation, which is actually considered a conventional reservoir. It is shallow (4,600') and typically requires only a modest frac, so the cost to drill and complete a well there is about half of the cost of typical Permian well. ...

ajootian

Thanks for getting this clarification Dan, very helpful. I'm surprised the stock has not gone up more on the news in that PR.

ajootian

Thanks for picking up coverage of this company Dan. They said they got $4.97 for their gas last quarter (no doubt due to the Texas Freeze). Just curious why you are not using that figure in your projection. They said they paid down debt by $30M last quarter -- the only way that could've happened is ...

ajootian

Actually December would be a great time for you to write up these guys IMO. There is a lot of tax loss selling that is probably going to happen with this stock over the next few weeks -- it was selling at $10 less than a year ago. It has rallied a bit recently but I believe that there is a good chan...

ajootian

Great to hear that Dan -- just curious what it would take for you to consider moving them up? If their Webb County acreage ends up to be good for the Austin Chalk in addition to the Eagle Ford, as is apparently the case for EOG's acreage there, that should blast this thing to the stratosphere. I kno...

ajootian

Its pretty cool when the 600 lb. gorilla ganders over to your 'hood. That's what happened yesterday, when, in conjunction with announcing its 3Q earnings, EOG announced that it has entered a "new" gas play in south Texas, Webb County to be exact, and will be drilling long lateral gas wells...

ajootian

They are presenting at IPAA in NYC next week. This will be the first time they are presenting at that being a stock on a listed exchange. In addition to their IPAA presentation and private meetings there, I'm sure they'll be pounding the pavement around Manhattan all week. Many institutions have res...

ajootian

That's great news Dan, I think doing a luncheon in April would be perfect timing for them. By then they will have gotten the 10K out and will probably (hopefully) have put out some sort of ops update on 1Q production. I believe they got zinged by the frigid weather like most producers up there but I...

ajootian

EnerJex filed an S-1 for $7.5M of nonconvertible preferred after the close on Friday. They have been harping about all the great opportunities that came with the Black Raven merger so maybe they finally are getting the gumption to raise some more capital to drill those out. The other alternative wou...

ajootian

Great update Dan, thanks for sharing it. The PR on Thursday saying that for the Logan County play they are now producing at double the average rate that they produced last quarter is tremendous news and I'm surprised it didn't have more effect to the stock price. If you take the $1.5M in pre-interes...

ajootian

This latest well result announced by Osage cleared up a cloud that had been hanging over the stock. This well's initial production results strongly imply that they have solved the sand problem that had occurred in the well that was previously drilled very close to this one, whose trials and tribulat...

ajootian

I've never been more bullish on this stock than I am right here right now. I know it seems kinda silly given where the stock price is but as we all know there are plenty of times when the prices of these penny stocks don't accurately reflect the underlying company's value. In retrospect the stock go...

ajootian

Continuation of prior post. 3/14/12 The thing that bugged me the most about OSAGE when I first started researching them was, why was their area of the Miss. play, Logan County, not even on SandRidge's map? SD was the company that really opened this play up so you would think that they knew where the...

ajootian

Its been more than 6 months since I've posted on these guys, long overdue. Below is pasted a compendium of posts that I've made on this company in the SIBBR, which is my main cyber hangout. Needless to say I still think this is a great investment and its my second largest position (only to Ridgeline...

ajootian

Dan, please let Landon know I thought he did a great job on the SandRidge profile. If only SandRidge did not have so much debt, I would own more of it than the very small amount that I own currently. I really like the Miss. play and if anyone comes across any better-capitalized companies that are ge...

ajootian

Osage Exploration & Development (OEDV.OB) -- This is a very small company that is in the very early stages of getting a project going in one of the hottest new plays, the Mississippian play in Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. SandRidge was the pioneer here and after over 100 horizontal wells is...

ajootian

Great to see you get this company in for a luncheon Dan. I believe they have a great play going and although I realize that they have an uphill battle to get some financing I believe their story is so compelling that they should be able to get money without causing too much dilution to their upside....

ajootian

NiMin had new analyst coverage recently, by Global Hunter, $2.50 PT, Buy. The report was linked to NiMin's website for awhile but I see that is no longer. The Global Hunter report had some good stuff in it, as follows: 1) Pg. 7 -- NIMIN has had "advanced talks" with other operators in the ...

ajootian

Thanks Dan, helpful comments. Based on their recent news release it looks like they are well on their way toward passing the "first test". Now that their CMD pilot has achieved cash flow breakeven I believe this will get a lot of other companies interested in this process. RIght now the ma...

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