Energy Prospectus

Fraser921

This from noted analyst Paul Sankey "...worst energy policy frameworks undertaken by a major economy, namely Massachusetts. They won’t import US natural gas 200 miles from the Marcellus, but rather burn 200kb/d of oil for power generation at peak winter demand. And the local Senator Elizabeth W...

Fraser921

Total carnage.

Someone didn’t get the memo that oil is tight

Fraser921

New lows day after day 26.50 today! weeeeeee too many ifs for the positive case: Why are we using 78? What happens if crude is 65 or lower? How about 55? PV10 means the cash flows are discounted at 10%. Using year end 2023 means you are using average prices for 2023 which were much higher than they ...

Fraser921

If the dumb politicians get the F out of the way

https://youtu.be/vl2dC0M0bHo?si=1y9Nniz5bjz8RgoW&t=513

Fraser921

Yep. Just terrible In New England we will not be buying Russian LNG anymore because they closed the import facility down. New York wont allow pipeline across NY state for Marcellus NG to reach the area. They want to rip out oil and ng furnaces So we will have to rely on windmills that don't work bef...

Fraser921

>PV10 value of just Vital proved reserves should be over $4.5 billion at 12-31-2024.

That mean 10 % return at prices assumed .

How did you arrive at 4.5b?? What if it is 2.5b? From that you have to subtract the debt of 2.5 b means 0 net worth

Fraser921

>"doom scenario"

What is the scenario called from $62 to 27 and new lows daily.

Wall Street doesn't like acquisition's at top of market pricing.

The so called "good hedges" don't last for the life of the assets obtained.

Fraser921

Index funds will have to buy

up 3.32

Fraser921

U.S. regulators are striving to rewrite guidance on how to protect endangered species in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a December deadline, potentially threatening oil and gas production in a region that provides 2M bbl/day of oil, or ~15% of U.S. crude output, Bloomberg reported this week. A U.S. Dis...

Fraser921

Buffett used to add to OXY holdings when the name dropped below 60. The trade was called the Buffett put

Things are so shaky in the energy sector now that even Buffett has stopped buying OXY even though its at a 1 year low of $52.40

Fraser921

Why did Tim get canned?

Fraser921

Don’t worry , it’s just noise and paper traders

Fraser921

Harris supports fracking! But I always said she will cancel the projects and pipes

You can frack all you want, you can’t sell it

See Waha prices

Fraser921

I thought the lng projects were done deals and basis of ng bullish argument

Fraser921

29 might not hold, here comes 28!!!

What a wonderful bargain! I bet you aren’t buying despite the 100 TP

Fraser921

Another new low

What a ride from 63 to 29! Pitiful!

2x.xx

Fraser921

This is an admission by OPEC that there is a glut of oil and not enough demand. Oil benchmarks failed to hold intraday gains to finish flat Thursday, maintaining their lowest levels this year, as worries about demand in the U.S. and China and an anticipated boost in supplies out of Libya offset an u...

Fraser921

Biden gave them 6 billion in cash

For what reason , I do not know.

The only thing that makes sense to me is someone got a kickback

Fraser921

Gas prices at the Waha hub have averaged below zero a record number of days so far in 2024, including an all-time low of minus $4.80 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Aug. 29, as pipeline and other constraints trap gas in the nation’s biggest oil-producing basin. That was the 10th time Wa...

Fraser921

They built their budget on 75 Wti. Since the strip is now in the 60’s, the juicy dividend is at risk if it stays there.

People don’t like dividend cuts.

Fraser921

Perhaps they should spend 20 billion on acquisitions since the TP goes up for every dollar they spend !

Fraser921

Could be. He was buying heavy for a while

Fraser921

VTLE new low achieved again. At some point this will be a huge bargain. The current situation reminds me of the expression "“Can’t See the Forest for the Trees” We can study data , talk about the future, OCF, markups on OCF, the importance of energy in our society, tightness, loseness, Ducs, ru...

Fraser921

Wti strip each of next 15 months all in the 60's

Mid point is about 67. I see some chatter people predicting low 60's

Fraser921

He stopped buying last Tuesday. Soon as he stopped , the name stopped rising and now has reversed
Looks like he is waiting for $8 again

Fraser921

"Based on the EV and the proven reserves" - Proven reserves don't get mark to market. They are stale numbers. Be careful using proven reserves. Reserves were calculated on numbers derived at year end 2023 which were derived by using first day pricing during 2023. I expected "proven re...

Fraser921

Always question the narrative.
Have any of you considered what happens if bullish narrative is flat out wrong?

VTLE new one year low at 33.70.

Fraser921

How about prices under 70?
Most months on the curve are trading with a 6x handle.
Yes, many companies will be profitable with $ 60 oil but how many will provide an adequate return on investment in the 60’s!

I’m out until I see proof that we don’t have a glut.

Fraser921

Don't know what happened. Name is down 6.7 % on the news

Fraser921

Agreed 100%.

Requires common sense from politicians or a 10 % kickback. The former isn't happening..

Fraser921

The low today was 10.07..now at 10.60 at 313 est

closed at 10.75

Fraser921

News flash I covered my short on CrK and went long. This isn't an endorsement of fundamentals. It's purely a speculative play that JJ is going to bust a move up the middle! NG supply was a plus 35 today 7 better than Celsius was predicting a + 42 which MIGHT indicate that the gassers might have got...

Fraser921

Good points! I just got new data on shares sold short. Short Interest increased from 21.9 m shares to 27.7 m over the period 7/31 to 8/15. Short interest to available float increased to a whopping 37.1 % which implies the float is only 75 m shares Days to cover increased from 5.6 days to 7.1 Short %...

Fraser921

Anxiously waiting for Fridays close to see if JJ is still buying. His avg cost is 10.20 and it traded below that price yesterday and opened around that number today

Forbes reported today that the Cowboys are worth 10 B , the highest value for a NFL franchise

Fraser921

He has 2 days to report his purchases and as of yesterday he was up to date. Any buys made today have to be reported by Friday. I am now on the sec watch list to see if he keeps buying. But he was adding last 4 days at 11 or better. I don’t see him slowing down with crk at 10.20 The company loves sa...

Fraser921

Covering my short position just in case he throws a Hail Mary! Not going long with ng low 2’s. If prices improve all the names will go up

If Ng climbs to over 4 , he is the GOAT of all time surpassing Tom Brady

None of the insiders are selling, so they are in the know too.

Fraser921

I don't see Trump as evil. To me it's an easy clear choice Regarding Chris Matthews. He used to be Tip O'Neil's chief of staff, then the media hired him. So he was biased. then they moved on to hire Chris Stephanopoulos who was a key advisor in Clinton administration. The press is 99 % Democrat supp...

Fraser921

Not reported in the press. JJ added stock in CRK 16 in last 17 days. Started recent purchases when the name dropped into the 7's. Added 13.5 m shares for $ 137.5 m. Bought in the open market every day except for Aug 19th. Explains the relative strength with NG falling last few weeks. I always wonder...

Fraser921

Chuck/all, good comments

Fraser921

+ 35...some people were predicting another draw!!

Celsius to their credit had + 32 so even higher than that.

NG glut and oil glut is not good for EP prices

Fraser921

In my opinion, the best metric for valuation is FCF/Enterprise value. A multiple on cash flow makes no sense as it ignores capex, interest exp, etc FCF is free cash flow, all the ins and outs. If a company has a 1 b in operating cash but spends 1 b in cap ex it has 0 ZERO cash flow. It's running in ...

Fraser921

"The market is now going from pricing in a stronger economy to a potential hard landing, which is why oil prices are reluctant to move higher," Price Future Group analyst Phil Flynn said, according to Reuters. "We already have growing concerns that the Chinese economy is going to cool...

Fraser921

Equity might take a huge hit at year end due to impairments due to lower commodity pricing. Some peope could care less about impairments and they call them "non cash" and just accounting bs Surge shocked the world with a huge impairment hit when they sold some assets. In the US, the SEC sa...

Fraser921

For the first time in its existence, the IEA is going to be right about oil demand being weak this year. OPEC's optimistic oil demand assumptions are at odds with reality, with a 2.1 million b/d difference compared to IEA estimates for 2025. Global oil inventories and refining margins indicate weake...

Fraser921

Re valuation: The problem with valuations on operating cash flows is it ignores cap ex ROK is spending most the of cash flow on cap ex The 2nd issue is oil prices are collapsing with next year in the 60’s The 3rd issue is it’s so tiny it relies on retail buying to move it. 4th issue is the Canadian ...

Fraser921

I think the democrats hate energy because most of the focus are in Red states.

They aren’t getting my gas stove.

Dan and Chuck you are both right.

Fraser921

Has been achieved on Vtle. If you like it at $62 you gotta love it at 35 What does the market know that raging bulls don’t know? Is there a glut? Oil prices are collapsing! Ng prices have collapsed. Some says demand is falling in China Is it noise or a new paradigm? I don’t follow this one anymore s...

Fraser921

https://boereport.com/2024/08/20/diary-of-a-madnatural-gas-producerman/

Fraser921

https://open.substack.com/pub/stephenheins/p/they-told-us-they-had-no-plans-to?r=nh748&utm_medium=ios

Fraser921

Don't let the door hit your ass on the way out.
I can't see anyone being as bad as Biden was.

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