Energy Prospectus

SergioSays

Keep fighting the good fight, Dan! I'm disappointed and a little surprised the folks in San Diego took umbrage at criticism of the current regime. I would expect that in Marin county, but not San Diego. I fear we may be too far gone...

SergioSays

The Cantarell / Pemex decline seems to be the global oil story that no one is talking about. Whistling past the graveyard.

SergioSays

that 4th Circuit decision is tragicomic. Depressing.

SergioSays

Gut feeling that between this hot summer and an active hurricane season, ng volatility is going to get crazy

SergioSays

diesel inventories are low in the US but I've seen charts showing well above average ex US. I'm assuming any domestic shortage can be easily plugged by imports (especially given Saudi's arbitrage of Russia's diesel bbls).

SergioSays

The world’s largest short position.

SergioSays

Looks good. Monthly dividend of 1.5c CAD announced. Reserves up.

https://boereport.com/2023/03/15/inplay-oil-corp-announces-record-2022-financial-operating-and-reserves-results-highlighted-by-58-production-growth-11-proved-developed-producing-reserves-growth-and-59-net-debt-reduction/

SergioSays

what do La Nina's typically forecast for summer? hotter/lower than normal?

SergioSays

I think another reason for the stock buybacks is it helps offset dilution from stock based compensation (SBC).

SergioSays

this ice age is going to last for all of 72 hours then warm back up. supplies are ample for the time being, and Freeport LNG just announced today that startup delayed till 2H January

SergioSays

Between the seasonal production declines from weather and the ending of the SPR draws, we could see some serious EIA crude draw #'s over the next 6 weeks

SergioSays

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News ... start.html

SergioSays

Manchin would rather be the Dems' useful idiot. Depressing.

SergioSays

Will do!

SergioSays

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/st ... -42357726/

Good timing with all the recent Eagle Ford deals.

SergioSays

https://rbnenergy.com/come-back-song-do ... eagle-ford

No earth shattering news here, just a recap of recent deals and good snapshot on EF producers. Our boy SBOW gets a mention.

SergioSays

Seems like an absurd overreaction by the author.

SergioSays

I believe the big NG dip is from a twitter rumor that Freeport has pipe damage which will delay a partial startup to mid Dec, with full capacity ramp delayed until at least Feb. The author deleted the tweet but the damage has been done.

SergioSays

I think the continued delays on Freeport startup has been a big factor in the larger than forecasted builds recently.

SergioSays

the market selloff towards the end of day on the Powell press conference took Devon from $71i-sh to $67 and change. Buy some tomorrow if you didn't today.

SergioSays

From "Drill, Baby, Drill" to "Draw, Baby, Draw"

SergioSays

Tulsa looks like a lovely place to live.

SergioSays

probably just the usual gas volatility based on this week's build. Good time to sell puts.

SergioSays

Talos Energy to buy EnVen Energy in $1.1B cash and stock deal Talos Energy (NYSE:TALO) +4.3% pre-market Thursday after agreeing to acquire deepwater Gulf of Mexico private operator EnVen Energy for $1.1B, consisting of $212.5M in cash and 43.8M shares, plus the assumption of ~$50M in net debt. Talos...

SergioSays

very scary because if we're going to max LNG exports through the winter that inventory is going to get extremely tight

SergioSays

I think the nat gas spike to $9 was on fear of a protracted railroad labor strike would require a call on natty. Once they settled, that scenario closed.

SergioSays

nevermind. I looked up the press release, as DVN is investing in an equity stake in the project

SergioSays

It's disgusting how she has been bought off.

SergioSays

very interesting, but I don't understand why the LNG midstreamers would make such a deal--I guess they need to term up supply in order to finance their projects, or is DVN committing funds to Delfin for project construction?

SergioSays

Thank God for the benign hurricane season (knock wood).

SergioSays

Will be interesting to see the hedging strategy from the NewCo. I'm guessing if Sitio is calling the shots, then their current hedging philosophy will carry forward.

SergioSays

thanks Dan!

SergioSays

up 8% this morning on big volume out of the gate. Looking for a news catalyst but not seeing anything...

SergioSays

Drive safely and enjoy your son’s birthday. Carpe Diem!

SergioSays

...asking them to lower their exports in order to build product inventories in the northeast prior to Winter.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/good-luc ... ng-mandate

Clown car administration

SergioSays

Knock on wood, but the fact that as of mid-August we have no weather formations off of west africa makes me think that the critical Aug/Sep period for major hurricanes will be well below forecast. Statistically once you hit Oct 1, the odds of a major hurricane in the gulf go way down. Should be help...

SergioSays

page 21. Those 2023 collars with $9-$10 upside cap on <50% of volume, that is a beautiful thing to see.

SergioSays

FWIW, the SA article was quoting a line from a Reuters article

SergioSays

Dan--off the top of your head, who do you think would be the biggest beneficiary of the Mountain Valley p/l being completed? I'm guessing either CTRA or EQT. There is some chatter that the Manchin energy bill could open the way for it's completion. Thanks in advance.

SergioSays

could be nothing, but nice price action in SBOW ever since July 6 when buyers showed up in size. Broke out of $26-$30 trading range and now up to ~$37 in a down energy market day. Someone may be sneakily accumulating.

SergioSays

Up as high as 20% today with ~70k shares traded in the last 20 minutes. Not seeing any news but something looks to be going down. I suppose we'll find out shortly.

SergioSays

They do a really good job telling their story in that IR deck. Sounds like a solid management team.

SergioSays

PDCE up 6% this morning via Seeking Alpha: PDC Energy (PDCE) provided updated guidance ahead of the market open Friday, following the close of its Great Western acquisition earlier in the month. Management provided pro-forma forecasts at the time of the acquisition announcement in February, and assu...

SergioSays

I think he will lean on CVX to acquire them.

SergioSays

well said. thanks for sharing!

SergioSays

Fraser, FYI, Sandridge Energy ($SD) does not hedge their gas production, if you're interested.

SergioSays

Dan--assuming we get seriously near inventory mins in NG, I suppose HH should theoretically get to near parity with TTF/JKM (delivered Europe/Asia LNG quote) in order to close the export arb. Agreed?

SergioSays

to add to that I'm reading forecasts of more severe than average hurricane season. could really dent builds in Q3

SergioSays

Heaven forbid one of our major complex refiners goes down this spring/summer. Zero slack in the system.

Joe better hope we have a relatively mild hurricane season

SergioSays

I wonder at what time does reality hit for the EV car buyers. I guess they will continue to show strong growth numbers for some time since their baseline share is so low, but absent subsidies, I just don't see the everyday person getting excited about EV's.

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