Energy Prospectus

What has occurred over the past two years has been far too coordinated to have been stupidity. With a bit of work one can piece together the connections. The question of whether it is “evil” is very nuanced. It is a deceit -based strategy but deceit has always been a central weapon of warfare.

Ah thanks Dan. I figured there had to be a rational answer. Quality of leasehold is something very difficult for non-Texan generalists to figure out. It's a black hole in the middle of my own analysis. Still it does seem that one might do better "building one's own" EOG by buying 15 smalle...

I haven’t hit them yet. Part of the reason I am doing this exercise is to figure out if it is worth the effort. I mean there are 150+ crunchable E&Ps. How much does one vary from another after adjusting for valuation? My evolving sense is “quite a lot actually.” So I guess I will keep going ...

Upon further reflection, yeah, EOG has a better track record even than FANG which is about half the size of EOG (so still in the same ballpark). LPI has been a train wreck and Callon has been “less bad” but not great over the past 5-10 years. So it seems investors are buying track records as much as...

Thanks Dan. I have been working on Callon yesterday and today and get a similar number as JPM for 2022: EPS of $13.60/share, rising to $15.66 in 2023. In the past few days i crunched EPG, FANG, LPI and now CPE. What I see is that EOG looks fully valued, FANG and CPE look cheap and LPI looks ridiculo...

Thanks Dan ... I've been thinking the same thing lately: What is the point of looking at book when book is depressed by hedge accounting? In the real world you either a) get the spot price when you sell the gas or b) recoup your hedge losses if gas goes down between now and then. Then there are the ...

Thanks Dan ... I checked out your Antero model and you are using $36/bbl for NGLs in 2022. It's a bit strange what is going on there. The firm says it got $32/bbl. in Q3 -- yet on its website it shows that it's currently getting $63/bbl for NGLs. Is the difference just hedges? If it is hedges, and i...

My pet theory is that coal/iron/steel is driving the commodity train, led by collapsing junk bond prices in China related to the collapsing housing mega-corps there. The issue is pretty serious actually. China looks pretty bad right now.

Dan do you have a conceptual view on GoM vs. Texas/Marcellus/Alberta? Just crunching the numbers you don't see any big differences (e.g. Talos has historical lifting costs of about $13/bbl which seems middle of the road for an oily E&P). But conceptually it seems to me GoM has to be higher capex...

If this is just a sale of pre-existing shares who cares? Looks like an entry opportunity no?

Great ... thanks for the clarification. Yeah that's probably what happened. A lot of series sort of zero out around 2015. So it's almost like they bought it for the tax-loss carryforwards ... mc

Hi Dan ... So I just spent the day modeling out In Play. I come up with numbers a little below management guidance based on higher cost estimates and also a fully diluted share count of like 93m post-acquisition. But ... My big question is: Why did they go (essentially) bankrupt in 2014-15? Their pe...

Ah interesting thanks. Looks (to me) like AR just has better NGLs than RRC: AR has more propane whereas RRC has more ethane.

Hi Dan ... I am reverse-engineering the NGL pricing for RRC using the data from their July powerpoint and comparing it with the Bloomberg pricing on a component-by-component basis. Looks to me like RRC is getting about 17% below what Bloomberg (Mount Belvieu) gives. So basically I get $54/bbl for NG...