Search found 14 matches
- Sat Jun 18, 2022 8:58 pm
- Forum: Other topics of interest
- Topic: Stupid or evil?
- Replies: 3
- Views: 786
Re: Stupid or evil?
What has occurred over the past two years has been far too coordinated to have been stupidity. With a bit of work one can piece together the connections. The question of whether it is “evil” is very nuanced. It is a deceit -based strategy but deceit has always been a central weapon of warfare.
- Sat Jan 15, 2022 9:48 am
- Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
- Topic: Callon Petroleum update - Jan 14
- Replies: 11
- Views: 2590
Re: Callon Petroleum update - Jan 14
Ah thanks Dan. I figured there had to be a rational answer. Quality of leasehold is something very difficult for non-Texan generalists to figure out. It's a black hole in the middle of my own analysis. Still it does seem that one might do better "building one's own" EOG by buying 15 smalle...
- Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:49 am
- Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
- Topic: Callon Petroleum update - Jan 14
- Replies: 11
- Views: 2590
Re: Callon Petroleum update - Jan 14
I haven’t hit them yet. Part of the reason I am doing this exercise is to figure out if it is worth the effort. I mean there are 150+ crunchable E&Ps. How much does one vary from another after adjusting for valuation? My evolving sense is “quite a lot actually.” So I guess I will keep going ...
- Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:33 pm
- Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
- Topic: Callon Petroleum update - Jan 14
- Replies: 11
- Views: 2590
Re: Callon Petroleum update - Jan 14
Upon further reflection, yeah, EOG has a better track record even than FANG which is about half the size of EOG (so still in the same ballpark). LPI has been a train wreck and Callon has been “less bad” but not great over the past 5-10 years. So it seems investors are buying track records as much as...
- Fri Jan 14, 2022 7:06 pm
- Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
- Topic: Callon Petroleum update - Jan 14
- Replies: 11
- Views: 2590
Re: Callon Petroleum update - Jan 14
Thanks Dan. I have been working on Callon yesterday and today and get a similar number as JPM for 2022: EPS of $13.60/share, rising to $15.66 in 2023. In the past few days i crunched EPG, FANG, LPI and now CPE. What I see is that EOG looks fully valued, FANG and CPE look cheap and LPI looks ridiculo...
- Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:25 am
- Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
- Topic: Antero Resources (AR) Update - Nov 9
- Replies: 4
- Views: 1617
Re: Antero Resources (AR) Update - Nov 9
Thanks Dan ... I've been thinking the same thing lately: What is the point of looking at book when book is depressed by hedge accounting? In the real world you either a) get the spot price when you sell the gas or b) recoup your hedge losses if gas goes down between now and then. Then there are the ...
- Wed Nov 10, 2021 9:28 pm
- Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
- Topic: Antero Resources (AR) Update - Nov 9
- Replies: 4
- Views: 1617
Re: Antero Resources (AR) Update - Nov 9
Thanks Dan ... I checked out your Antero model and you are using $36/bbl for NGLs in 2022. It's a bit strange what is going on there. The firm says it got $32/bbl. in Q3 -- yet on its website it shows that it's currently getting $63/bbl for NGLs. Is the difference just hedges? If it is hedges, and i...
- Wed Nov 10, 2021 9:10 pm
- Forum: The View from Houston
- Topic: 10 % club
- Replies: 2
- Views: 995
Re: 10 % club
My pet theory is that coal/iron/steel is driving the commodity train, led by collapsing junk bond prices in China related to the collapsing housing mega-corps there. The issue is pretty serious actually. China looks pretty bad right now.
- Tue Nov 09, 2021 10:20 pm
- Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
- Topic: Talos Energy (TALO) Update - Nov 7
- Replies: 12
- Views: 3349
Re: Talos Energy (TALO) Update - Nov 7
Dan do you have a conceptual view on GoM vs. Texas/Marcellus/Alberta? Just crunching the numbers you don't see any big differences (e.g. Talos has historical lifting costs of about $13/bbl which seems middle of the road for an oily E&P). But conceptually it seems to me GoM has to be higher capex...
- Tue Nov 09, 2021 11:59 am
- Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
- Topic: Talos Energy (TALO) Update - Nov 7
- Replies: 12
- Views: 3349
Re: Talos Energy (TALO) Update - Nov 7
If this is just a sale of pre-existing shares who cares? Looks like an entry opportunity no?