Energy Prospectus

JBtheBrit

Good stuff Dan - I have had a holding in Journey for a while. Like Alex Verge (CEO) - the webinar should be interesting/helpful.

JBtheBrit

Tin has been moving nicely as well. Very limited options to play this - Alphamin or Metals X - Alpha has the best mine but in a tough jurisdiction, while MLX has not historically been super shareholder friendly, but has an Aussie based mine. MLX seems to have gotten religion recently, announcing a b...

JBtheBrit

Agreed Aja !

JBtheBrit

I have a holding in ARLP and have had it since early 2022 - got in for an average of c. $14 per share and with dividend drip, my effective cost is now down to c. $10. Its a long term hold for me (approx 20% of my coal holdings). I like the CEO, Joe Craft - worth listening to 2-3 of the confra calls....

JBtheBrit

Here's a good podcast interview with the SRR CEO - its a year or so ago, but most of the discussion is relevant and he comes across as a level headed guy.

https://rosebros.ca/blogs/podcast/brad-docherty

JBtheBrit

@Fraser I've owned the big 3 (Wheaton, Franco Nev and Royal Gold) over the years, but have switched over the last year or so to Osisko and Sandstorm. On the coal side I have National Resource Partners - thats been a nice ride the last 12 months and hopefully more to come (only downside on that one i...

JBtheBrit

I like royalty co's (have some coal, gold and a couple of the US O&G names on your list). Great if you can get him. Thanks Dan.

JBtheBrit

Dan - Thanks for sharing. Any chance you can get the CEO on a webinar at some stage ?

JBtheBrit

Well said Dan. As we should all know here....investment decisions sit entirely with each of us as individual investors. I truly value this forum and all your work on EPG.... I certainly don;t agree with everything... but that is what makes a market and I think its always valuable to listen to credib...

JBtheBrit

I wonder if JJ is pushing (telling) mgmt to eliminate the dividend... which will add to pressure on the stock and maybe reach his buy number ?. Will be an interesting results release for sure.

JBtheBrit

URNM and Sprot Physical are my largest holdings (Cameco and KAP account for over 25% of URNM). I have small positions in URNJ (some overlap of course with URNM). Also recently added small positions in Boss Energy (Auz mine due to restart in Q1 2024) and Bannerman (mining license in Namibia just gran...

JBtheBrit

I think the big issue with a lot of these smaller O&G names is that free cash flow is negligible. Op cash flow is great... but if they have to burn most of that to just stand still via capex, I think the market is saying show us you can generate real free cash flow. Not sure what changes the dyn...

JBtheBrit

Would be interesting to go back and look at what the Wall Street Gang said at the start of 2023 - from memory, most were in the $90-100 range... the only outlier I think was Citi, who I think were in the $75-80 range. I think at the time most of us (me for sure) didn't pay much attention to the Citi...

JBtheBrit

For Whitehaven/Yancoal I did the OTC's - limited volume, but I use limit orders and for these names, for me they are likely longish term holds, so I am not too concerned about the liquidity. Not ideal...

JBtheBrit

A good listen for anyone wanting to learn more on coal. Matt Warder is the Dan S of coal !!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iExcjU1Id4I

JBtheBrit

@ChuckGeb - you are welcome. Whitehaven is particularly interesting. Take a look at their 2022 results and the cash generated - at the time they were pretty much 100% thermal and really benefited from the run up in thermal pricing. They have used a chunk of this cash to buy Met coal assets being sol...

JBtheBrit

Thanks Mitchl. I have paired back my holdings a bit this year (basically taking profits from 2021 through mid 2022), but ultimately I am terrible at timing, so if I believe in the thesis, I am holding until my belief in the thesis changes. The dynamics between thermal and met are also of course very...

JBtheBrit

I have a number of coal holdings - both Met and Thermal. I am bullish coal in the medium term - very similar to Oil, the IEA produces an annual report forecasting that coal has peaked and will decline next year... but despite these claims being made each of the last 8-10 years, coal usage continues ...

JBtheBrit

The Doomberg piece got me thinking about some of my coal holdings - I have a couple of Auzzie thermal coal producers whose valuations are as depressed as the likes of SBOW and VTLE - the only difference being while the produce a lot of Op Cash Flow their Free cash flow is also very strong because ca...

JBtheBrit

Agreed @Chuck. I think stock price moves will not necessarily track U prices.... but there is definitely possibility of 2-3x current levels for the main ETF (URNM). I also like the set up here that, unlike oil, it seems that high prices won't necessarily quickly cure high prices, because U as an inp...

JBtheBrit

Good 1 hr 20 min discussion on Uranium - well worth a listen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IalMNKRly0&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

JBtheBrit

Keep it up Frazer. There are times (maybe plenty) that I don't agree with you.... but I wholeheartedly agree with your comment above that no one needs an echo chamber. I also in agreement with you on the debate on operating cash flow vs actual free cash flow. I truly value Dan's work and all the mod...

JBtheBrit

Dan - thanks for the update. I have had a small holding of SILV since the original webinar you had on EPG. Its a good story - only clouded a bit a couple of months back by a mine update which lowered the reserve forecast. I am basically flat on my investment, but remain bullish on this one due to th...

JBtheBrit

Their updates are always good to listen to - I patched in live yesterday. Pretty bearsish on NG through late 2024 - I thought their analysis on el nino and historical trends was interesting.. obviously weather remains a bit of a crap shoot... but it does seem like the probability based on what they ...

JBtheBrit

Good detailed article on Baytex on Seeking Alpha. Good balanced (and generally bullish) read.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4639256-baytex-energy-offers-big-upside-and-a-growing-dividend-but-beware-of-the-risks#scroll_comments

JBtheBrit

Buy the dip again today

JBtheBrit

mitchl - thanks for posting the graph. I started a small position in SLSSF 9-10 months back after Dan's first webinar with them. Like the story... but have been waiting for a better time to add. I thought that might be early summer as inventories were falling... but since then as your graph shows th...

JBtheBrit

Actually, I think its a hail mary to try to save his political ass. He will be out of power in 13 months time (currently 30% behind the Labour Party opposition in the polls - Labour are even more fervent Greens than Sunak). I think he concluded most Brits, despite being pro climate change, are more ...

JBtheBrit

Quick comments from Eric Nuttall of NinePoint (NinePoint said to be the largest shareholder);
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/eric-nuttall-discusses-baytex-energy~2395518

JBtheBrit

Timeless... and maybe more relevant today than when done originally 50 odd years ago.

JBtheBrit

Bummer.... was hoping ESTE was going to be a double. I know that PR may still pay off... but trying to figure out why this experienced ESTE management team would sell out so low.

JBtheBrit

Spot on....

JBtheBrit

I had a position in OIH a while back, but switched it to specific offshore names, because I felt offshore services would be better than diluting with the onshore as well. I subscribe to John P's newsletter - he was definitely early on TDW (way before me... and probably a bit too early... but it is p...

JBtheBrit

It's been a great 7-8 months for Offshore. When I posted this in Jan TDW was at $42 and is now $64 and RIG was $6.20 and now $8.50 (RIG had already run up from around $2.50 in mid 2022). Very bullish confra call this week from RIG - I can see their share price treading water for a bit now... but the...

JBtheBrit

Patience is a virtue !

JBtheBrit

Thanks Dan - appreciate the response/color on your thinking.

JBtheBrit

Hi Dan - a quick question on valuation multiple's - looking at the two most recent model updates for Baytex and In Play (I own small positions in In Play and Ranger Oil so interested in both). Trying to understand the logic of 6x for In Play and 3.5x for Baytex. Given the size of In Play I would hav...

JBtheBrit

JPM produces what I think is a very well written / balanced annual energy paper - well worth the read. They also just did a 45 min webinar summarizing key topics. Michael Cembalest - the lead author is always good to listen to. If only someone would force every one in Congress to read /listen to thi...

JBtheBrit

@Chuck - I think you are right. The next 2-3 years are going to see a lot of defaults - particularly in Commercial Real Estate and high yield corporates - even without a material downturn - the combo of higher rates and tightened lending/banking environment. It's interesting to see some of the high ...

JBtheBrit

Talking of morons.... what a joke today.... Powell saying one thing and Yellen the opposite an hour or so later. What a cluster. I was in NY in the banking industry in 08/09... for all his faults, Hank Paulson made the right and brave calls and saved what would have been a horrendous collapse.... sa...

JBtheBrit

@Fraser - each to his own. I am sure your approach works fine for you... if I tried it I would have even more grey hair than I do. My approach is to develop a thesis (for example in my view over the next 3-4 years oil demand will exceed supply due to the lack of production investment, due in part to...

JBtheBrit

Looks like a low ball bid and ROCC p/e owners cashing out. Dan - whats your view on potential for other bidders ?

JBtheBrit

Bullish for oil & gas and for coal. If you haven't looked at coal I would highly recommend - names such as CEIX, ARCH, ARLP and BTU are all trading at 1-2x 2023 forecast cash flow... and two big differences from the O&G names is that a) most of these names have pre-sold 80-90% of their 2023 ...

JBtheBrit

Some good commentary on offshore (drillers and service vessels). Most of the focus is on TDW (the largest public name in the offshore support vessel space), however it also covers drillers like RIG, Valeris etc. I do think offshore is setting up well if one buys into oil averaging at least $70-80 fo...

JBtheBrit

I have a consulting business that works with folks looking to move to the US via an E2 Visa (helping them find a business to support their visa app). 90% of my deals in the last year and pipeline looking forward is with German's ... all of whom say the same thing -we are sick and tired with the bs i...

JBtheBrit

Have you noticed how the narrative has shifted from "Global Warming" to "Climate Change".... allows the grifters to seek handouts whether its hot or cold !.

JBtheBrit

This is a good read - keep the faith !
https://seekingalpha.com/article/456335 ... 31001.6335

JBtheBrit

Dan,

Thankful to have found this group earlier this year. Thank you for all your hard work - I definitely feel better placed to invest in O&G as a result. Happy Thanksgiving you, your family and all associated with EPG.

JB

JBtheBrit

Ironically, Toyota with the Prius hybrid 20 years ago were on to the optimal solution (ie hybrid) - I am still amazed that there isn't more focus on this.

JBtheBrit

Just spent the week in the UK (I am from there originally, but have lived in the US for 25+ years) - my dad is still there and is ailing, so went to spend the week with him. If you think the green /renewables drumbeat is bad in the US, its nothing compared to the UK. Despite facing a huge energy cri...

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