Energy Prospectus

Cliff_N

Harry, Canada has a 200% tariff on milk imports from the US. It would be interesting to the data

Cliff_N

From Grok on X: The U.S. has historically maintained a low average tariff rate (around 2-3% on a trade-weighted basis), while many trading partners impose higher tariffs on U.S. exports. Below, I’ll outline key countries with significant tariff disparities on goods, focusing on examples where the U....

Cliff_N

First, Putin was stupid for invading Ukraine. Second, the expansion of NATO to the Russian border is inexcusable. Can you imagine the US reaction of China or Russia working their way through South America, Central America and finally Mexico (Ukraine) placing missiles along the way? Some us are old e...

Cliff_N

Chuck, thanks for the post. His case for copper is compelling. In addition he believes that Oil and Gas, materials will increase from 12% to over 30% of the S&P in the coming years.

Cliff_N

Total cost of owning an EV is a bit onerous. Batteries are supposed to last 100,000 miles. Cost to replace can range from 7k to 30K depending on the vehicle. A Tesla 3 will run 12,700 to replace the batteries.

Cliff_N

Dan, this is a huge miss by those "experts" in the oil markets: "decreased by 2.3 million barrels." If my read is correct, they were expecting a 2+M build.

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Simply Wall Street on SEI before market opened: Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Solaris Energy Infrastructure fair value estimate is US$57.34 Current share price of US$29.34 suggests Solaris Energy Infrastructure is potentially 49% undervalued The US$39.00 analyst price targ...

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On Fox Business Varney, a snow resort in Vermont said the season could go to May!

Cliff_N

$1.25 would be $10.35 today, you could do much better at Whataburger or Buc-ee's! .25 cents would be $2.07. I graduated from high school in the Summer of 1970. Invited to take a physical for the draft. My counselor told me I had three choices, "University, trade school or Cambodia."

Cliff_N

Dan, you mentioned on the broadcast that oil was $12 dollars per barrel in 1970, in 2024 dollars, that would be $97.14. Oil today is a bargain compared to 1970. The FED's main mission is to stabilize the dollar, since 1913, we have wiped out 97% of the dollar. Ron Paul was correct on getting rid of ...

Cliff_N

Amazed that it is that low. Shows the power of the misleading media.

Cliff_N

Question: Dan, I understand barrels of oil, easy to count. I know how much has been released from the Strategic reserve. Easy to navigate. Natural case is a mystery, except comparison to the where we are relative to five year average. Is there a number on the current total capacity? If so, then we c...

Cliff_N

API spooked the market yesterday, the EIA number on crude oil was about 44% of the API number of 9.04 million. Strange since both use surveys and samples to estimate inventory to have that big of an error between the two: "The oil market is trading with marginal declines this morning as the API...

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KGEI has just hit a 52 week high. Top pick by Petroleum Economist (aka. Harry) for 2025. Took some good positions last week, very pleased. Also invested 2 years ago when it was trading at $4, when suggested by Dan.

Cliff

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Chuck, thanks for the post from Sankey. Unfortunately, Trump has learned the "hammer" and everything now looks like a nail. Agree with Dan and Sankey that increases in diesel would fuel inflation in the thru the supply chain.

Cliff_N

Many of the climate alarmists want less humans. This was the solution of Michael Moore in a recent film.

Cliff_N

Hopefully, Bank of America will stop discriminating against OIL and Gas sector after the public tongue lashing of their CEO by Trump. Maybe this was a first step to stop the program of misinformation about supplies.

Cliff_N

I am slow today, can anyone explain why Oil and Gas would get nailed over the DeepSeek news? I thought this would explain the connection. Didn't work for me. https://www.okenergytoday.com/2025/01/crude-oil-and-ok-energy-stocks-dropped-on-monday/ This has to be a typical stampede without any thinking...

Cliff_N

https://youtu.be/fmbZwxEnAFc

Landman | Tommy Explains Why Even Wind Turbines Depend on the Oil Industry (S1, E3) | Paramount+

Beware of very colorful language. Scene at the end with nature is worth the time.

Cliff_N

"After WWII, Truman had Secretary of State George Marshall developed a plan to rebuild Europe. After the Marshall Plan rebuilt most of Europe, we have gone downhill meddling in the business of other countries. We have enough problems, and more are being created by the day. Time to come home and...

Cliff_N

Dan, big difference between API yesterday for a draw of 4.9 million barrels and EIA at .9, makes one question the efficacy of sampling and estimating.

Cliff_N

https://www.suredividend.com/canadian-taxes-us-investors/ Good article and good news here: Owning Dividend Stocks in Retirement Accounts If you have the contribution room available, owning Canadian stocks in U.S. retirement accounts (like a 401(k)) is always your best decision. There are two reasons...

Cliff_N

Thanks to everyone for shedding some light on CRK.

Cliff

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Jerry Jones called it right investing 200 million in CRK at $8-$9 a share a few months ago. Now up over 84%. Trump will take the ban off Natural Gas exports and now the Green Unicorn Folks understand that Natural Gas is needed to close the gap for powering AI. The Silicon Valley folks are no longer ...

Cliff_N

Trump never led in an National Poll in 2016 or 2020. Kamala needs to take the national poll by 6% to move the needle in the swing states. Hillary got the popular vote, but lost all the states below. Trump underperformed in his polls during 2020 by an average of 6%. Biden was to take Wisconsin by 7%,...

Cliff_N

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4945872-arkansas-19-million-tons-lithium-battery-power/amp/ Researchers said in a recent article that Arkansas may have 19 million tons of lithium, which is used in rechargeable batteries for important products like phones and electric cars. The research...

Cliff_N

Dan, great post and true. However, corporations don't pay taxes. They collect taxes. I had a cousin who told me he didn't buy a house because he didn't want to pay property tax. I owned a rental property and asked him, "Do you think your landlord is an idiot?" He replied, "No, why wou...

Cliff_N

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/winter-forecast-for-the-us-in-the-2024-25-season/1699821 3 key factors in the winter forecast One of the major elements considered by AccuWeather's long-range meteorologists when crafting the winter forecast was La Niña. This phenomenon occurs when water...

Cliff_N

Dan, I am not feeling the love! Another beat down today. Looks like the outlook in China put the dump on Energy. Other reasons?

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Dan, Crescent Energy call letters are CRGY. Did you mean Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA)?

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https://www.visualcapitalist.com/rise-in-global-coal-consumption-by-region-1965-2023/

Cliff_N

Anas Alhajji
@anasalhajji

Worried about the decline in gasoline demand last week as reported by the EIA today?

1- gasoline demand declines after major holidays. Models use that fact in modelling gasoline demand
2- EIA has been revising gasoline demand up in its monthly reports

Posted on X

Cliff_N

I don't have the data, but I can see where low gas prices going into an election would benefit incumbents. The last economic calamity that I can recall in an election year was 2008, which got us Obama. I am amazed that the media has the R word back in their talking head segments. This will not help ...

Cliff_N

Chuck, your explanation is about the only thing I have heard that makes sense. Definitely the election season.

Cliff_N

Apparently, the Fed was slow to react to rate reductions. Europeans started in the Spring through June, 2024. Markets are spooked now and we are getting flogged in the oil sector. This was posted in X by Charles Gasparenio: The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter Current situation: 1. Stocks can barely ...

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Dan, today is the 5th, might want to update from 8th, back to the future!

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Agree, in Feb-2021 to Jan 2022, I pulled data from CPE and did a regression analysis of Oil Price (X) and CPE Closing Price (Y) and r^2 was 65.9%, meaning that 65.9% of the change in price was related to price of oil. Special causes have dominated since. News on the series of COVID variant scares, s...

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Roosevelt was the first call himself a "progressive." Teddy was frustrated that the pesky Constitution was holding him back. He wanted to "progress" beyond the Constitution. Woodrow Wilson and FDR (also progressives) followed suit in breaking the country. Especially Wilson with t...

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Great chart from Eric (note Yellow arrow at the bottom, we are here):

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aja57, thanks for the informative reply and the reminder on election season. I do expect this volatility during Options week. Agree that it is manipulation regardless of fundamentals or companies. You can see the collapse across all companies in the sector at the about the same time using graphical ...

Cliff_N

That rally lasted 24 hours. Any ideas on why the whole sector is being clobbered today? We get a breather on one day, the next any advance is taken away. Very frustrating. Most of us made good money when oil was 50-60 dollars per barrel. Now at 75+++ a daily flogging. Very strange. Little to no reco...

Cliff_N

Thanks for the post. Nuttall has gone through the hysteria and provided some good information on what most of us believe about supply and demand.

Cliff

Cliff_N

Now we have another beat down of the entire sector, the GUSH is down over 5%, we are approaching the losses experienced in early August, while the market is up. Very strange.

Cliff_N

There was a drop about 11:16 CST today, any ideas on why the drop? I am not seeing any news.

Cliff_N

Christopher Rufo has done a great job that exposes DEI, Critical Race Theory and other movements that have their roots in Marxism. He has identified four people in his book, who were defeated in the streets in 1968, but then retreated to the universities: Christopher Rufo: "I think it’s an ideo...

Cliff_N

Dan and Petroleum Economist, what are the top five take over targets in Permian basin? It would appear that PR would be on the list.

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Cliff_N

Russell 2000 is also over 3.4%, yet oil and gas stocks are barely in the Green. Seems weird. Thoughts from Dan and Petroleum Economist?

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Cliff_N

Quote on the same line of thinking. Genius was not required here: "The Secret Service did not show up to a press conference Saturday night on the assassination attempt. At the press conference, FBI Special Agent in Charge Kevin Rojek acknowledged it was “surprising” that the shooter managed to ...

Cliff_N

Good afternoon! GUSH a composite of several O&G stocks, some off Dan's lists is down over 5% and killing O&G stocks. WTI is up Dow is weak but not in the red. Reasons for why the beatdown today? Unemployment did increase a bit, signal to the market the economy is going south?

Cliff_N

According to Tucker Carlson, Obama is pitching for an open convention to unseat Biden. aja57, great point on President and VP coming from he same state. The problem Trump would have in selecting Rubio. Actually, good news. From Tucker: "From an unusually good source: Obama’s tweet supporting Jo...

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