Energy Prospectus

Chord and Enerplus reported rather different Q1 results. Chord production was in line with the outlook, Enerplus well below expectation. The balance sheets and the profitability of both are in good shape and shareholder returns are adequate. The merger of Chord/Enerplus should be completed in Late M...

Vital reported mixed Q1 results. Production was above the outlook. The balance sheet is in flux. The profitability is sound, but costs were higher than expected. Shareholder returns are on the horizon. Production • Q1 production (124.7 K BoE/d) was above the outlook (117.5-122.5 K BoE/d). • Producti...

Riley reported excellent Q1 results. The recent 25% drop in share price is without any basis. Production was near the top of the outlook and growing. The balance sheet is recovering fast. The profitability is sound and costs are under control. Shareholder returns are reasonable and will increase. Ri...

Ovintiv reported solid Q1 results. Production was at the high end of the outlook. The balance sheet is good, the profitability sound and shareholder returns are generous. Production • Q1 production (574.0 K BoE/d) was at the high end of the outlook (560-575 K BoE/d). • The production was 5.2% below ...

Dan, I am a bit cautious on Talos. Reserves Talos proven reserves are 153 M BoE. Quarter North added 69 M BoE to this The combined Talos + Quarter North reserves (222 M BoE) are equivalent to only 6.6 years of the 92.5 K BoE/d 2024 production. This is well below the industry average (9.5-10 years. T...

Ring reported Q1 results in line with expectations. Production was above the outlook, debt needs reduction and profitability was as expected. Shareholder returns can start in 2026. Production • Q1 production (19.0 K BoE/d) was above the outlook (18.0-18.5 K BoE/d). • Q1 production was down -2% versu...

The Gran Tierra share price increased in 2024 by a staggering 53.2%. This is the most of all the oil and gas stocks that I track and warrants some investigation. With WTI = $ 80-$ 85, I estimate the Gran Tierra 2024 eps to be $ 1.36-2.06 and the PE 4.6- 6.4. The low PE, combined with shareholder ret...

Fraser, I define solvency as equity/divided by the balance sheet total.
A good solvency is 50%, a really good solvency is > 60%.

Returning dividends to shareholders with solvency less than 50% I think is a bit dodgy.
I believe the money should flow towards the balance sheet to reduce debt.

Dan, I am a little bit amazed that Civitas has started boosting their shareholder returns so early in 2024. Civitas is spending 60-65% of their $ 1.8-2.1 B capex in H1. That means that the free cash flow in H2 will be a lot higher than in H1. The Civitas balance sheet is not yet in the greatest shap...

SM energy had a good Q1. Production decreased but was above expectation. The balance sheet is strong, the profitability good and shareholder returns solid. Production • As expected, Q1 production - due to winter weather - declined from 153.5 K BoE/d (Q4 2023) to 145.1 K BoE/d. The 145.1 K BoE/d was ...