Energy Prospectus

Petroleum economist

Dan, I think that the impact of a successful Marden polymer flood can be much more than a $ 0.50 share price increase. I think Marsen potentially can double the Hemisphere reserves and production. See below. Hemisphere production chart - June 2025.jpg Due to the large well spacing, we will not know ...

Petroleum economist

Dan,
A Q3 production of 5.8 K BoE/d looks like a conservative estimate.
If the Lovina wells are at or near the performance of the Alicia Renee wells than a Q3 production of 6.5-7.0 K BoE/d is possible.

Petroleum economist

I use Henry Hub gas price as the basis for gas prices. Future realized gas prices are calculated based on a common Henry hub scenario minus a specific delta versus Henry Hub based on the average difference over the previous twelve months. There are major differences in natural gas prices between oil...

Petroleum economist

Dan, what is your source for -2.0 F or C cooler ocean temperatures? Did you misplace the decimal point? On what are the ice data based? Ocean temperature The BerkeleyEarth chart (see below) indicates a drop of -0.15% C in ocean temperatures between April 2024 and April 2025. Berkeley - ocean tempera...

Petroleum economist

Summary • West Canada Select (WCS) trades at a big discount versus the WTI oil price. The discount has reduced with $ 8-10/bbl following the start of the Transmountain pipeline expansion in May 2024. • Net realized oil prices for Canadian companies differ from WCS and vary from company to company. ...

Petroleum economist

EOG is acquiring in H2 2025 Encino Acquisition Partners with 675,000 acres and 235 K BoE/d in the Utica for $ 5.6 B. The acquisition is to close in H2. Summary The acquisition is enhancing the EOG capability to export more gas at a time that gas prices are likely to go up. The costs of the acquisiti...

Petroleum economist

BRUSSELS (Reuters) -The European Commission said on Saturday that it "strongly" regrets an announced increase of U.S. tariffs on steel imports and that the EU is prepared to impose countermeasures. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he planned to increase tariffs on imported steel ...

Petroleum economist

R euters - WEST MIFFLIN, Pennsylvania (Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday he planned to increase tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50% from 25%, ratcheting up pressure on global steel producers and deepening his trade war. "We are going to be imposing a 25% increase. W...

Petroleum economist

HOUSTON, May 30, 2025 EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) today announced a definitive agreement with Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP) and Encino Energy under which EOG will acquire Encino Acquisition Partners (EAP or Encino) for $5.6 billion, inclusive of EAP's net debt. EOG currently expects to f...

Petroleum economist

Introduction With increasing future gas prices, it can be attractive to add US gas producers to your portfolio. Amongst the US gas producers you can select from are Antero Resources, Comstock resources, CNX Resources, Coterra, EQT, Expand Energy, Gulfport Energy, PHX Minerals, Range Resources, and ...

Petroleum economist

Hemisphere is a small Canadian oil producer, using polymer flooding to produce heavy oil from the Atlee Buffalo field in Alberta. In late 2024 Hemisphere has started a polymer pilot at Marsden. First results should come available in mid to late 2025. Summary Hemisphere reported solid Q1 results. Pro...

Petroleum economist

Dan, a Kolibri 2025 production exit rate at 7.0 K BoE/d looks a bit low to me. I can see an exit rate of > 8.0 K BoE/d based on the five elements shown below. Existing production • Existing Q1 production (4.08 K BoE/d – no new wells ) was down 0.32 K BoE/d on Q4 (4.40 K BoE/d). • Extrapolating this ...

Petroleum economist

Dan, the reason for the faltering Civitas share price could be the lack of potential production growth. Reserves • Civitas 2024 proven reserves (798 M BoE) are only equivalent to 6.7 years of 2025 production. This is one of the lowest ratios in industry. • Civitas over the four years (2021-2024) has...

Petroleum economist

MEG jumped today more than 17% to C$ 27.50-28.00. This is well above the Strathcona offer.
The market must be expecting a higher offer.

Petroleum economist

Strathcona is a medium size Canadian oil and gas company operating in Alberta. 79% of the shares are held by WEF. Summary Strathcona has ample reserves and a growing production. After the divestments in Q2/Q3 the balance sheet will become very strong. Strathcona is a profitable company with a low to...

Petroleum economist

MEG Energy Responds to Strathcona Resources Ltd.'s Announcement of an Intention to Make an Unsolicited Offer. Fri, 16 May 2025 07:30:00 -0400 Shareholders Advised to Take No Action CALGARY, AB, May 16, 2025 /CNW/ - MEG Energy Corp. ("MEG" or the "Corporation") (TSX: MEG) acknowl...

Petroleum economist

Strathcona Divestments Strathcona will receive in Q2/Q3 a lot of cash (C$ 2,445 M) from the divestment of: • Montney Kakwa assets for C$ 1,695 M to ARC resources. • Grand Prairie assets for C$ 850 M (C$ 750 M cash). Strathcona also sold its Birchfield assets for C$ 291.5 M to Tourmaline. This was h...

Petroleum economist

Calgary, Alberta (May 15, 2025) – Strathcona Resources Ltd. (“Strathcona“) announced today that it intends to commence a take-over bid for MEG Energy Corp. (TSX:MEG) (“MEG“), pursuant to which Strathcona will offer (the “Offer“) to acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of MEG (“MEG...

Petroleum economist

Kolibri is a small company producing oil and gas from the shallow zones of the Tishomingo Field in Central Oklahoma. The deeper zones are operated by Exxon. Summary Kolibri has ample reserves and a growing production with an enormous upside. Q1 production was above expectations. The balance sheet is...

Petroleum economist

Peyto Exploration is a Canadian mid-size gas producer (ranked fifth in Canada), operating conventional gas fields in the Deep Basin in Alberta. Summary Peyto has ample reserves and production is consistently growing. The balance sheet improved in Q1, but can do with a bit more reinforcement. Peyto i...

Petroleum economist

Kiwetinohk is a small Canadian NGL/gas producer with operations in the Duvernay and Montney in Alberta. Kiwetinokh also develops gas fired and solar power generation. ARC Resources owns 63% of the shares. Summary Kiwetinohk reported good Q1 results. Production continues to grow and was in Q1 above e...

Petroleum economist

Vital Energy is a small US oil company, producing light tight oil in the Delaware and Midland basin in the Permian in West Texas and New Mexico. Summary Vital reported Q1 results close to expectation with an impairment as a negative surprise. Production was as expected and soon will start a steady d...

Petroleum economist

Kelt Exploration is a small Canadian gas/liquid producer, operating on 590.000 acres in the Montney and Charlie Lake areas in Alberta and British Columbia. Summary Kelt has shown strong production growth in the past, which continued in Q1. The balance sheet is very healthy. Profit was lower than exp...

Petroleum economist

NuVista Energy is a mid-size Canadian gas producer operating in the Montney play in western Alberta. NuVista produces from conventional gas/condensate reservoirs. Summary NuVista reported good Q1 result. Production was higher than anticipated and will continue to grow. The balance sheet is very soun...

Petroleum economist

Athabasca is a small Canadian oil company, producing heavy oil and lighter oil/gas from the Duvernay shales in Alberta. Summary Athabasca reported solid Q1 results. Production was close to expectation and will increase. The balance sheet is extremely sound. Profit was as expected. Athabasca is profi...

Petroleum economist

Riley Exploration is a small US oil company, producing conventional oil and gas from 58,000 acres in the NW shelf of the Permian in west-Texas and New Mexico. Riley will acquire in Q3 2025 the assets from Silverback. Summary Riley Exploration reported solid Q1 results. The Silverback acquisition loo...

Petroleum economist

MEG Energy is a mid-size Canadian oil sands producer in Northern Alberta. MEG uses steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) to produce heavy bitumen. Summary MEG reported good Q1 results. Production is flat and can start to grow after 2026. The balance sheet is very sound. MEG is a profitable company....

Petroleum economist

Different to Dan I think that the Crescent Q1 production was a bit disappointing. Production • Crescent produced 250 K BoE/d in Q4. • Crescent closed the Ridgemar acquisition with 20 K BoE/d on 31st of January thus adding 2 months Ridgemar with 20 K BoE/d. • Therefor I had expected a Q1 production o...

Petroleum economist

Similar to Dan, Coterra (747 K BoE/d) beat in Q1 my production expectation (725 K BoE/d) Despite this Coterra fell short of my Q1 profit expectation. This has two reasons: Operating costs • The operating costs has gone up with 15% within a year from $ 8.66/BoE (Q1 2024) to $ 9.96/BoE (Q1 2025). • I ...

Petroleum economist

Yangarra is a small Canadian gas producer, producing conventional gas and NGL in the Cardium sands in Alberta. Summary Q1 production was as expected, with an increase in production for the rest of 2025 foreseen. The balance sheet is in a reasonable shape but can do with some reinforcement. Profitabi...

Petroleum economist

Northern met my expectations for Q1, but did not exceed them. Apparently, my Q1 outlook was a bit more optimistic than Dan’s outlook. Production • Similar to Dan, Q1 production (134.9 K BoE/d) exceeded my expectation (132.0 K BoE/d), which was based on a production flat compared to Q4 production (13...

Petroleum economist

I agree with Keith Kohl that a continuous WTI=$ 50/bbl oil price scenario would be a disaster for the US and Canadian oil industry. I ran a $ 50/bbl oil price scenario through my 85 companies ranking model. The model indicates that the impact will be enormous: • 29 out of 85 companies (=34% of the t...

Petroleum economist

I once worked for a Technical Director on a major multi billion project execution who said: ”Planners? What planners! We do not have planners! We have historians – they can tell you exactly what happened yesterday, but they have no clue what will happen tomorrow”. I had to think of this when I saw t...

Petroleum economist

The number of LNG powered vessels is growing fast. The prediction is that the number of LNG powered vessels will increase from 641 (late 2024) with to 1,156 (2030). LNG powered vessels.jpg The increase in the number of vessels is impressive, but has a limited impact on the total world LNG market. 20...

Petroleum economist

Whitecap is a mid-cap Canadian oil and gas producer, operating oil and gas assets in Western Canada (Northern Alberta and British Columbia, Central Alberta, and Saskatchewan). In mid May 2025 Whitecap will merge with Veren. Q1 will be the last quarter for Whitecap to report on as a stand-alone compa...

Petroleum economist

Matador is a mid-size US oil company, producing oil and gas from the Delaware basin in Texas and New Mexico. Summary Matador reported mixed Q1 results. Q1 production was slightly above expectation and looks to peak in Q2. After 2025 production can continue to grow. The balance sheet is in a reasonab...

Petroleum economist

I agree with Dan that Range Resources is undervalued. Production • Q1 production (2.200 MM scfe/d) was flat versus Q4 (2,203 MM scfe/d). Range Resources did not supply a Q1 outlook. I had expected a slightly lower 2,150 MM scfe/d. • Range Resources did not supply a Q2 outlook. I expect for Q2 a prod...

Petroleum economist

Hemisphere is a small Canadian oil company, producing heavy oil using a polymer flood at the Atlee Buffalo field in Alberta. Hemisphere since late 2024 is running a polymer pilot at Marsden where first results should come available in mid-2025. Summary Hemisphere reported solid 2024 results with no ...

Petroleum economist

Allen, I am sorry you do not like my tariff comments. No harm meant. I am not ranting against President Trump. I stay away from US politic. However, I have a strong dislike of import tariffs and the consequential trade wars. Tariffs not only affect the US, but also affect the rest of the world, me p...

Petroleum economist

Diamondback yesterday published Q1 operational results. The press release on the Q1 operational results also included the statement: 2025 OPERATING PLAN UPDATE Given recent market volatility, Diamondback is closely monitoring the macro environment and is actively reviewing its operating plan for the...

Petroleum economist

"Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday the central bank will "wait for greater clarity" before considering any interest rate adjustments as he expects President Trump’s tariffs to generate "higher inflation and slower growth." Those twin developments, he ack...

Petroleum economist

Below the chart for the FCF and the shareholder returns.
Returns have started start with the $ 0.20 quarterly returns but will gô up overtime.

: SM returns.jpg (59.02 KiB) Viewed 1004 times

Petroleum economist

In 2025 SM Energy thus has been one of the worst performing stocks. The share price of SM Energy dropped with -44.1%. Only Crescent Energy (-46.9%) and Lotus Creek (-46.1%)ek have fared worse. The drop of the Lotus Creek and Crescent Energy share price I can understand. The future of Lotus Creek is ...

Petroleum economist

Bill, I like shrimps as well. Shrimps are an excellent example where targeted protection and/or tariff are justified. I have lifted some data from the Shrimp Alliance webpage: • The U.S. shrimp industry has suffered significant in recent years. • Since 2021, the prices of imported shrimp have droppe...

Petroleum economist

Dan, other countries have tariffs in place but at lower levels. To protect special industries, they can be justified provided the are included in trade deals. The EU on average charges 3% to the U$ imports not 10-20%. The current tariffs on Canada (25%), Mexico (25%), China (145%) and 10-25% on the ...

Petroleum economist

Dan, this is scary. What Scott Brooks describes is a cult who should follow an all-visionary leader. Trust him and his tariffs and all be alright. No checks and balances. Ignore everybody who disagrees. No more free trade. Let us isolate ourselves from the evil outside world. Macroeconomics and hist...

Petroleum economist

President Trump has done enormous damage to the US economy Not all is well. The damage President Trump has done to the US economy over the last week was enormous. President Trump damaged consumer and investor confidence, as well as international trust in US treasury bonds. Import tariffs and trade ...

Petroleum economist

Ray. trying to spot fake news is good advice. I try to read/listen to as many sources as possible, ranging in the US from the FOX cheerleaders such as Maria Bartiromo to Paul Krugman (Nobel winning economist). I also listen/read to international channels/papers as much as possible varying from Canad...

Petroleum economist

I agree with Dan that Matador is in good financial health Reinforcement of balance sheet Matador repaid in Q1 $180 million of its borrowings under its credit facility. As per my ranking model the Q1 FCF from operations was $ 166 M. On top of this Matador received $ 30 M from the sale of its Eaglefor...

Petroleum economist

Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Wall Street banks both want President Trump's tariff chaos to end. Eizabeth Warren “This is the dumbest trade war in history, and this is a potential recession,” Warren said in an interview. “This is one person creating enough chaos that it may bring down not just the Ameri...

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