Energy Prospectus

dan_s

•Newfield assumed development of its 3.7 Tcfe of proved reserves would occur during the five-year period ending December 31, 2015, and that planned activities would be funded solely through internally generated cash flow from operations. It is that second part that I LOVE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I want to o...

dan_s

Keep in mind that this is all in an area with plenty of infrastructure and services. These wells can be completed and tied to sales very quickly. Everything NFX announced today is in-line with my forecast model and confirms my Fair Value estimate. NFX is one of our "Core Holdings" in the S...

dan_s

HOUSTON, Feb. 7, 2011 /PRNewswire/ -- Newfield Exploration Company (NYSE:NFX) today announced that its proved oil reserves at year-end 2010 totaled more than 200 MMBbls, a 20% increase over year-end 2009 proved oil reserves. The significant rise in the quantity of proved oil reserves contributed to ...

dan_s

Sweet 16 member, Newfield Exploration (NFX) has already drilled five verticle wells and two horizontal wells in western Montana's Alberta Basin Bakken play. NFX has a large leasehold position already and they are agressively getting more. Read this: http://www.beatingtheindex.com/ Rosetta Resources ...

dan_s

No news. As of Friday, GeoResource was up over 28% YTD. My guess is that someone with a large block tightened up their stop loss order and the stock hit that price this morning, causing the big dip. Or they just want to harvest some profits, which is a good idea from time-to-time. The share price qu...

dan_s

We are now tracking 12 midstream MLP's that offer high yield (5% to 6.5%) and solid growth potential. These are appropriate for investors that need cash flows. The midstream MLPs have less risk than the 7 upstream MLPs we track because their revenues are locked in by long-term contracts and volitili...

dan_s

This is from a newsletter I get on the options market. Energies: Egyptian unrest has spread across North Africa. Despite the rock throwing, Molotov cocktails and proclaimed days of rage, the general consensus is the mini-contagion will have little influence on oil shipments or Suez Canal closures. O...

dan_s

For now, I'm leaving TGA in the Sweet 16 but I do believe the situation in Egypt will cap the stock's upside. If you are overweight in TGA, I suggest you use this morning's rally as a chance to lighten up. Two of the companies on our Watch List, FST and PXP are ready to join the Sweet 16. PXP looks ...

dan_s

Change of plans. My wife was able to get a better deal from Princess. A notice with details and prices will be going out today to everyone that gets our newsletter. BTW Susan and I have been on 14 cruises and booked most of them through the agency we are going to use for this group trip. If you have...

dan_s

IMO our policy to subsidize ethanol is immoral. Our government is playing with the free market system in an effort to buy votes. Ethanol has some major polution issues and the devotion of this much farmland to growing corn for fuel production is driving the cost of food up and supplies down. Million...

dan_s

As of February 4 closing prices: > Our Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio is up 8.5% year-to-date and up 84.1% since 1-1-2010. > 11 of 16 are up YTD > FXEN leads the pack, up 58.4% YTD on their recently announced drilling results > GEOI is up 28.9%, primary on their success in the Bakken and new JV in the Ea...

dan_s

At GPOR's current share price, investors are getting the HUGE upside they have in the Grizzly Oil Sands company for nothing. Keep in mind that their first oil sands production comes on-line in 2012. My recommendation is that you accumulate a full position in GPOR this year. GPOR is still below my Fa...

dan_s

My updated forecast is now available under the Sweet 16 tab. Just click on the TGA logo.

dan_s

Kim is tied up today, so send me an e-mail if you'd like to see the new TGA forecast model.

dmsteffens@comcast.net

dan_s

Kim has not yet posted the updated forecast model. When she does it will be under the Sweet 16 tab. Just click on the TGA logo to see it. Our forecast models are only available to Premium Members so I don't want to post my new Fair Value estimate here. I have lowered by Fair Value estimte by $2/shar...

dan_s

Susan, my lovely wife and our tour planner, has negotiated a special group rate for us if we can put eight couples together for a cruise to Alaska on the 5-Star Celebrity Infinity. Our rate will a big discount to the rates quoted here. http://www.celebritycruises.com/destinations/home.do;jsessionid=...

dan_s

Here is a note from the Morgan Stanley analyst that covers DNR. We believe the share price will rise in absolute terms over the next 60 days. This is because of raised forecasts/guidance. In the short-term, we expect that DNR will benefit from two key developments: 1) Better than expected crude pric...

dan_s

The estimated discounted net present value of Denbury’s proved reserves, before projected income taxes, using a 10% per annum discount rate (“PV-10 Value”) was $7.3 billion at December 31, 2010, as compared to a PV-10 Value of $3.1 billion a year earlier. This increase is primarily due to the 2010 a...

dan_s

Subject: U.S. in Contempt Over Gulf Drill Ban, Judge Rules - Bloomberg http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-03/u-s-administration-in-contempt-over-gulf-drill-ban-judge-rules.html -- Shared with Google Share Button The Obama Administration acted in contempt by continuing its deepwater-drilling morat...

dan_s

Working gas in storage was 2,353 Bcf as of Friday, January 28, 2011, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 189 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 69 Bcf less than last year at this time and 5 Bcf above the 5-year average of 2,348 Bcf. Next Thursday's report should show a ...

dan_s

As a group, the onshore drillers look very good to me. Citi Smith Barney has raised their price target on PTEN to $35 Earnings Power Starting to Show — We have raised our rating on PTEN from Hold-Speculative to Buy-Speculative based on our sharply increased earnings expectations for the company's la...

dan_s

TGA oil production and realized prices up in Q4: 3rd quarter production: > Egypt = 7,601 bopd > Yemen = 2,537 4th quarter production: > Egypt = 7,941 bopd > Yemen = 2,848 bopd TGA sells all of its oil production under contracts tied to Brent crude which is currently selling for $102/bbl. Eqypt oil s...

dan_s

February 3: We webcast the Primary Petroleum presentation. Members can see a reply. March 10: Evolution Petroleum (EPM) will be hosting. EPM is on our Watch List and we are now working on the company profile that we hope to have complete by February 12 March 31: FXEN will be hosting We now plan on w...

dan_s

Report in the Calgary paper yesterday: CALGARY - TransGlobe Energy shares fell 10 per cent on the Toronto Stock Exchange Monday morning as political unrest continued in Egypt, where the company has promising oil operations. Ross Clarkson, president and chief executive of the Calgary-based company, s...

dan_s

TGA issued an operations update. I will review it carefully and update my forecast model tomorrow morning. "To date, the Company's West Gharib production operations have not been affected by the recent political demonstrations in Egypt. The Company continues to the monitor the situation and has...

dan_s

For any of you that believe high oil prices are here to stay, DNR is for you.

dan_s

Brent closed at over $102/bbl today. (BTW this is very good for TGA)
There is a lot of crude oil at Cushing, OK that is keeping a lid on WTI. When this oil at Cushing is moved out it the gap between Brent and WTI will close.

dan_s

HOUSTON, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Texas imposed statewide rolling blackouts for only the second time in more than two decades on Wednesday, after frigid weather shut down dozens of generators, and warned it may be forced to do the same on Thursday. The grid operator declared an energy emergency after unusu...

dan_s

TGA told me yesterday that an operations update was coming out soon.

dan_s

You can find their presentation at www.petrobank.com Each share of Petrobank = 1.03 shares of PetroBakken + a share of their heavy oil business. My reports on Petrobank and PetroBakken can be found under the Sweet 16 tab. Just click on the Petrobank logo. At today's close, Petrobank was trading just...

dan_s

Al Gore has an explanation for the record snow and cold gripping the nation: global warming. Responding to an on-air question by Bill O’Reilly, Gore wrote on his website the “increased heavy snowfalls are a consequence of man-made global warming.” According to Al Gore, if you get a rash it is due to...

dan_s

It appears Mr. Fraser is a bit confused.

My Fair Value estimate for TGA is $20

dan_s

Our E&P Watch list includes some very good companies. You should check what is under our "Watch List" tab on a regular basis. I will be updating it tomorrow. We are now tracking 27 E&P companies in addition to the Sweet 16. We are adding these to the E&P Watch List: > Gran Tier...

dan_s

SGY was dropped at the end of the year. It was replaced by Petrominerales.

At the time I wrote that there is nothing wrong with SGY other than I see now growth. To stay in the S-16 a company must be growing production.

dan_s

We have idiots that are responsible for $Trillions. How do these people get control of this much money????????????? This woman is the Inspector General of the Federal Reserve and as you will see, she has no idea what they are doing. You couldn't make this stuff up, it is beyond my comprehension, how...

dan_s

All Premium Members are encouraged to read the new "Sweet 16 Detailed Update" which is now under the Sweet 16 tab. I also recommend you read our new profiles on FST and PXP that can be found under the Watch List tab. I am very bullish on both companies and I will be talking about them at T...

dan_s

A Welcome Return for $100 Oil By Nick Hodge | Tuesday, February 1st, 2011 And just like that, $100 oil has returned. (You can't say we didn't tell you it was coming here, here, here and here.) Chest-pounding aside, if you've prepared correctly, Benjamin-a-barrel oil should come as a blessing. But if...

dan_s

Top-rated stocks in IBD's Oil & Gas-U.S. Exploration & Production industry group include Gulfport Energy (GPOR), Concho Resources (CXO) and Northern Oil & Gas (NOG). This strong group ranked seventh out of 197 groups as of IBD's Monday edition. Gulfport surged 12% in fast trade Monday, t...

dan_s

Salt Lake City, February 1, 2011 – FX Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FXEN) today reported the Lisewo 1K well has been drilled to a total depth of 3945 meters, true vertical depth (TVD) of 3773.5 meters and logged. The well operator, the Polish Oil and Gas Company (PGNiG), and 51% owner contracted log interpr...

dan_s

I strongly urge all Premium Members to go to the Sweet 16 tab and read my comments on Gulfport (GPOR) in today's "Sweet 16 Detailed Update". The report also includes by Fair Value estimated price for each of the Sweet-16.

dan_s

I'm putting the final touches on our profile for Plains Exploration and Production Company (PXP). It looks very good! This one is probably going to graduate up to the Sweet 16 soon as I am forecasting significant oil production growth from their Granite Wash and Eagle Ford drilling programs. - Dan P...

dan_s

APA – Egyptian Risk Overdone, Good Buying Opportunity – We believe that the reaction to the turmoil in Egypt is overdone and creates a good buying opportunity for those who felt like they missed the boat when the stock hit its 52-week high on January 18. Street protests and political turmoil in Egyp...

dan_s

From Pritchard morning report: CRZO ($32.63-B-$38) – Tweaking price target to $38 from $37 • Giving more credit to Eagle Ford and Niobrara acreage • Price target 80% of $47/share NAV • Lowering Q4 2010 and full year 2011 and 2012 EPS/CFPS to $0.18/$0.84, $2.28/$5.70 and $3.15/$7.46 from $0.27/$0.95,...

dan_s

From the Pritchard morning report: APA ($114.84-B-$126) – Egyptian risk overdone, buying oppty • Stock reflects 45% loss of Egyptian asset value • Estimating value of Egyptian assets at $7.3 billion on NAV basis • Expecting Egyptian assets to generate 2.2 billion of cashflow in 2011 • Revising Q4 20...

dan_s

I just talked to TGA's IR manager. He said they should be putting out a press release later this week. So far, there has been no impact on TGA's field operations as a result of the protests.

dan_s

DNR is heavily weighted to oil and I believe the market has yet to give them credit for their Bakken potential.

dan_s

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB500 ... ive_twm_fs

dan_s

This is why I added CLR to the Sweet 16. It has incredible growth potential. Now that I have seen the BEXP year-end reserve report, I'm even more bullish on CLR. - Dan

http://seekingalpha.com/article/249655- ... urce=yahoo

dan_s

The only significant risk for TGA in Egypt is that the new government will cancel or try to renegotiate concession agreements. I doubt that will happen. The new government will have enough to deal with and can't afford to cause a reduction in their oil & gas revenues. - Dan On Monday January 31,...

dan_s

Jan. 27 (Bloomberg) -- BPZ Resources, Inc., a U.S. crude oil producer with operations in Peru, said it secured a $40 million loan from Credit Suisse Group AG. The loan, which is backed by three gas-fired turbines acquired for a Peruvian power plant, will help finance 2011 capital expenditures, Houst...

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