Energy Prospectus

dan_s

VNOM closed at $42.52 on June 13. Of the four minerals companies in our High Yield Income Portfolio it is my Top Pick for growth. < Viper's production will be going from 57,378 Boepd in Q1 2025 to over 130,000 by year end 2025. Viper is a C-Corp., so a good choice for an IRA account. Since Viper ann...

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On Newsmax this morning: The Middle East situation is "going to get rough" and "we're going to see the Iranians out of desperation throw everything they can," at Israel, retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt said on Newsmax, Friday. "They'll try to probably close the Stra...

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I took a hard look at the at Crescent Energy (CRGY) this morning. Crescent Energy is a "Growth by Acquisitions" company, which is out-of-favor by most of the Wall Street Gang these days because their first assumption is that the Company paid too much for the acquired assets. Q2 2025 will b...

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Watch this video: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-ready-to-do-more-amid-israel-iran-conflict-wesley-clark/ar-AA1GGtPW

If the real goal is regime change in Iran, this conflict will go on for months.

dan_s

At this point, there is no way to know where oil prices will be next week or next month. For example CNBC reported that: JPMorgan analysts are convinced that escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East won’t have a lasting impact on oil prices in the second half of 2025. In a note to clients...

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For the week ending June 13 the Sweet 16 gained 6.72% and is now down just 2.32% YTD, not counting dividends or the gain realized on VRN. For the week the S&P 500 Index lost 0.50% and is now up 1.62% YTD. WTI oil price increased 7.26% on Friday to close at $72.98/bbl due to Israel's attack on Ir...

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Trading Economics WTI crude oil futures jumped 7.55% to settle just at $73.18 per barrel on Friday, paring some gains after hitting their highest level since February amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. > The surge followed an Israeli strike on Iran, which vowed retaliation, heightening fea...

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Civitas Resources (CIVI) closed today at less than 50% of book value. If WTI oil stays over $70/bbl, it makes CIVI a "Screaming Buy" up to $42, which was First Call's price target last week. Crescent Energy (CRGY) and SM Energy (SM) also closed today below book value. Both of them are Str...

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Kolibri (KGEI) production mix is ~73% crude oil and all of its oil hedges are collars. Most of the collars have ceilings in the $80s. Plus it does get good prices for its gas. Big well announcements coming out soon. Baytex (BTE) production mix is ~70% crude oil and it is getting good prices for its ...

dan_s

At 3:30 ET WTI is now up over 8%. Two hours ago it was up 6%. I think the Wall Street Gang is coming around to the fact that the airstrikes against Iran are far from over. Plus, Israel did say that if Iran attacks their population centers, Israel might take out some of their oil export capacity. The...

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Netanyahu calling on the Iranian people to rise up and get rid of the Supreme Leader. If they do, Iran can become one of the most successful and prosperous countries on Earth.

dan_s

Interior Department Announces $200 Billion LNG Supply Agreements With Japan U.S. companies have finalized sales agreements with Japanese power generation giant JERA Co. Inc. for it to purchase up to 5.5 million tons per year of American liquefied natural gas (LNG), the Department of the Interior (DO...

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I agree that Marsden can be much bigger than Atlee Buffalo. At this point there is still a chance that it won't be successful, but based on my conversation with Don Simmons, he believes that it will be successful. I know that his team did a lot of geological work before they acquired the acreage. Th...

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Looks like we are going to have over 200 on the live webinar on Tuesday, June 17.

All we needed was Israel to bomb Iran and now everyone is interest in oil & gas stocks again!

dan_s

This happened a few miles from my home SW of Houston. HOUSTON, Texas – A Sugar Land, TX man and his neighbour are in police custody after the duo drilled an unauthorized gas well in the backyard of one of the men in search of a fuel source for their extraordinarily large homemade backyard grill. Del...

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Hemisphere is the most heavily weighted to the price of oil, out of all the upstream companies that I follow. It is a pure play on Canadian Heavy Oil and none of the Company's oil is subject to U.S. tariffs. At the time of this post HMENF was trading at $1.44US. If WTI oil averages $70US/bbl in Q2 a...

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At least 20 senior Iranian commanders including the head of the revolutionary guards, Aerospace Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh, were killed in Israel's strikes on Iran on Friday, two regional sources told Reuters.

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Iran no longer plans to engage in nuclear talks with the U.S. that were scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday, Iranian leaders announced Friday after Israel launched deadly airstrikes it said targeted Tehran’s nuclear facilities and military sites. Oman News Agency and Iranian state media report...

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You may recall that two months ago Trump gave Iran's Supreme Leader 60 days to agree to end all nuclear enrichment. Today is Day 61. ------------------------------- Most of the Sweet 16 and our other model portfolio companies are up this morning, but not as much as I expected. Overall market weaknes...

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This is not a "One and Done" military strike. Looks like Israel is going to make sure Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities are eliminated. If so, they are doing the world a favor. --------------------- Associated Press: Israel has launched a second wave of airstrikes targeting Iranian ci...

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Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt told Newsmax on Thursday that the strikes in Tehran tell him that Israel might be going for a "decapitation strike" on Iran and its leaders. Holt also asserted that the countries are now "in a state of war." Holt joined "Finnerty"...

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Trading Economics: US natural gas futures edged above $3.50 per MMBtu, tracking broader gains across energy markets amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, the increase was more muted compared to the sharp moves seen in oil and other gas benchmarks. The geopolitical spike followed Isra...

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Israel said it had targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders on Friday at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon, while Iran has promised a harsh response. U.S. President Donald Trump u...

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Brent crude oil futures briefly rose above $78 before settling around $74 per barrel on Friday, reaching their highest level since February amid fears of supply disruptions following Israel’s strike against Iran. > Israel declared a special situation, suggesting Iran could soon retaliate against Isr...

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Reuters: Oil jumps nearly 9% after Israel's strikes on Iran ------------------------- Crude oil analysts are in a rush to revise their forecasts in the wake of Israel’s attacks on Iran as geopolitics trumps fundamentals yet again. “Oil could spike toward $80 if Middle East tensions escalate and supp...

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Macro Voices interview with an oil market expert, Rory Johnson

https://macrovoices.podbean.com/e/macrovoices-484-rory-johnston-crude-oil-forward-curve-conundrum/?token=b41ba60e71991b0625d705d71e8f9957

dan_s

Our updated profile and my forecast/valuation model for PAA has been posted to the EPG website. My updated valuations are $23 for PAA and $22 for PAGP. These are "Growth + Income" investments with dividend yields over 8% AND they will be increasing dividends each year for up to five years....

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Bloomberg Analysts are making credible arguments that oil could slump into the $40s -- or soar to $120. Even for a commodity with a volatile history like oil, that price range is remarkable. Late on Wednesday, Brent crude, the international benchmark, briefly rose above $70 a barrel for the first ti...

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Crude oil prices dropped back slightly on Thursday, after jumping by 4% on Wednesday to hit the highest in two months on the news that the U.S. was pulling out its staff from the embassy in Baghdad. The drop was driven by profit-taking, but bullish sentiment remains. At the time of writing, Brent cr...

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FEAR of "What will OPEC+ do next?" is one of the 3 primary fears that are headwinds for the oil price. > FEAR of "Drill Baby Drill" never was a realistic fundamental problem, but since Trump said it hundreds of times leading up to the election the Wall Street Gang spread the fear...

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Is California on Pace for $8 a Gallon Gas? Speaking of blue state dysfunction, maybe a better reason for protests in Los Angeles would be the absurdly high prices in the Golden State, thanks to years and decades of green extremism. Gasoline prices in California average $4.67 per gallon, while the na...

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Read all of the replies to the previous post, which includes a prediction that the NYMEX strip for HH natural gas should be over $5.00/MMBtu for the 12 months of 2026 by December 2025. ------------------------- Working gas in storage was 2,707 Bcf as of Friday, June 6, 2025, according to EIA estima...

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Notes from 22V Research this morning + Crude prices surged on Middle East tensions yesterday afternoon. They were also responding to three constructive market factors: (1) news of the U.S.-China trade truce, (2) the benign U.S. CPI report, and (3) strong EIA stats for U.S. oil demand. + But prompt W...

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EBW Analytic Group: Natural Gas Demand Surge Begins to Take Shape The July natural gas contract declined for a third straight day yesterday to its lowest close this month at $3.507. Henry Hub spot prices continue to wither at $2.74/MMBtu— extending the physical market role as a bearish weight on nea...

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Lots of noise impacting oil and gas prices, with the Paper Traders dealing with a lot of conflicting data. Trading Economics Oil WTI crude oil futures fell to around $67.5 per barrel on Thursday, after hitting an over two-month high in the previous session on fears of supply disruptions amid rising ...

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Note from Anas Alhajji received at 6:41PM CT Attack on Iran/Iraq? Brent oil prices rose above $70/b and WTI was around $69/b on Thursday morning in Asia after the US evacuated personnel from Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain amid rising tensions with Iran. The UK government's maritime trade operations divis...

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Setting everyone on edge and grasping for insight, the Trump Administration issued evacuation orders for non-essential personnel at the U.S. embassy in Iraq, and its diplomatic facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait on Wednesday. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also reportedly told FOX News that there w...

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An Updated Framework For Understanding The Oil Market And Where We Are Headed HFI Research The recent rally in crude oil is likely prompting some observers to scratch their heads seriously. However, as we detailed in our May 20 OMF titled, Navigating The Oil Market In The Near Term. We saw near-term...

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I plan to take a hard look at Whitecap in July. HFI now lists WCP as one of their Top Picks. HFI Research: Whitecap Resources (WCP:CA) has emerged from its acquisition of Veren as a premier large-cap North American E&P. The combined entity features a current production capacity of 365,000 boe/d...

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EBS Analytic Group. Glimmers of Early-Summer Tightening Begin to Emerge The July natural gas contract tested support at $3.515 yesterday as bulls began to lose patience waiting for the demand ramp-up into summer. Henry Hub spot prices slid to $2.75/MMBtu; Houston Ship Channel changed hands as low as...

dan_s

I agree. For now, I am using the top end of Kolibri's production guidance in my 2025 forecast. If your prediction ends up being correct AND oil moves over $70/bbl, a valuation of $18 to $20 for KGEI is likely. At our May 21st luncheon. Wolf told us that the well logs for all four Lovina wells look i...

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Ahead of a new round of talks with the United States, Iran has issued a stern warning to Washington, declaring that uranium enrichment and the lifting of sanctions are non-negotiable red lines for Tehran. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently warned in a report that Iran now has the...

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In a post on Truth Social Wednesday morning, Trump said "OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME. FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL PROVIDE TO CHINA WHAT WAS AGREED TO, INCLUDING CHINESE S...

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Trading Economic: WTI crude oil futures rose above $66 per barrel on Wednesday, the highest in ten weeks, lifted by optimism over US-China trade talks and renewed tensions between the US and Iran. > Donald Trump declared the China trade deal “done,” pending final sign-off with President Xi . > Meanw...

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Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending June 6, 2025 U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.2 million barrels per day during the week ending June 6, 2025, which was 228 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 94.3% of their operable cap...

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My updated profile and forecast model for KGEI has been posted to the EPG website. If all goes as planned Kolibri will have 4.46 net high-rate wells completed to sales within a few weeks. I am forecasting an increase in production from 4,077 Boepd in Q1 to 5,800 Boepd in Q3. All four of the Lovina w...

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This is good news. Key for NMG is to keep getting financial support from GM and Panasonic. Nouveau Monde Graphite is firming up its project debt financing structure with the intended participation of syndicate institutional funds and export credit agencies for over US$1 billion toward the Company’s...

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Texas is pumping natural gas out of the ground and exporting it at a record pace. It may only be the start of another energy boom for the Lone Star State because natural gas demand is growing both globally and at home. Texas produced 34.1 billion cu ft daily of natural gas in March, newly released f...

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My updated forecast model for Vital has been posted to the EPG website.

dan_s

My comments in blue. Trade policy assumptions. The U.S. macroeconomic outlook we use in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) is based on S&P Global’s macroeconomic model. S&P Global’s most recent model reflects the tariffs announced in April and includes the 90-day temporary suspension of ta...

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