Energy Prospectus

dan_s

We are going to discuss this on Friday's webinar. This is a webinar you don't want to miss. "Canada’s battered natural gas market is “about to turn the corner” into a new era of higher prices, according to BMO Capital Markets veteran commodities analyst Randy Ollenberger. He and his peers see n...

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Reuters with my comments in blue When they met on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu basked in the glow of their triumph over Iran. But the show of unity masked a divergence over their endgames in Iran, Gaza and the wider Middle East. Both leaders have ...

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PR trading under $15 is a "Screaming Buy". That is less than 3X my 2026 operating cash flow per share forecast of $5.29. PR has a lot of high-quality "Running Room" in the Tier One area of the Delaware Basin, arguably some of the best low-risk drilling locations on planet Earth. ...

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The simple answer is YES. As I posted last week, I have never seen distillate (diesel) inventories more than 20% below normal at this time of year. The U.S. runs on diesel and so do all modern economies. It is a False Paradigm that the global oil market is over-supplied. The "Green New Deal&quo...

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MY TAKE on the OPEC+ announcement to increase quotas more than expected and why oil prices moved higher on Monday. 1. Saudi Arabia has more accurate information about the global oil market than EIA and IEA put together. 2. Saudi Arabia knows that the global oil market is tighter than what we've bee...

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My forecast for Spartan Delta is based on production of > 39,000 Boepd in Q2 > 41,000 Boepd in Q3 > 44,000 Boepd in Q4 with a 2025 exit rate of more than 45,000 Boepd. My 2026 forecast is based on production of 48,000 Boepd. (Harry, I assume you expect 49,000 Boepd in 2026, not 2029 in your previous...

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I personally believe in "Climate the Same" and that it is silly to think we can control the Earth's climate. I also believe that many of our elected officials are in politics for the money. > FEAR of Climate Change was used to control a high percentage of the population. > FEAR has always ...

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This is also good news for Spartan Delta (SDE.TO) CALGARY, July 7, 2025 /NEWSWIRE/ - Journey Energy Inc. (JOY – TSX; JRNGF - OTCQX) (“Journey” or the “Company”) is pleased to provide an update on its Duvernay Joint Venture (the “Joint Venture”) operations, including initial results from the 2025 ca...

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Most of our model portfolio companies were down today because of the investors over-reacted to the OPEC+ larger than expected increase in quotas in August. As I have posted here many times, the quota increases do not = actual supply increases. More than half of the cartel countries have been and wil...

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No news, but lots of the upstream stocks are down despite WTI being up more than $1/bbl today. Lots of confused investors that seem to be over-reacting to the OPEC+ quota increase. We will not know how good the four horizontal Lovina wells are until they have been online for ~30 days. These wells ar...

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I am preparing a forecast/valuation model for Pine Cliff, so that I can ask intelligent questions on this Friday's webinar. Chris MacCulloch, CFA at Dejardins is a respected energy sector analyst that follows Pine Cliff Energy Ltd. (PNE.TO) closely. Here are his last two updates. May 5: First Take o...

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I have finished my review of the updated profile for Peyto, a recent addition to our High Yield Income Portfolio. You can download it from the EPG website. Peyto is a rock-solid company, and I gain more confidence in my model each time I update it. I am most impressed with how Peyto used hedges to s...

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https://www.facebook.com/reel/1224148932354180

I urge all of you to vote against any politician that wants to defund the police. Our police, firemen and women & other first responders are what makes America Great.

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At the time of this post, WTI was up $1.14 to $67.64/bbl. Like most of you, I was expecting the Paper Traders to sell off their long NYMEX contracts in an over-reaction to the OPEC+ larger than expected increase in quotas for August. Keep in mind that quota increases are MUCH LARGER than the cartel ...

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Plains All American Pipeline (PAA and PAGP) agreed to sell its Canadian NGL business to Keyera for $3.75 billion in cash last month. The master limited partnership (MLP) will retain most of its NGL assets in the U.S. and its Canadian crude oil operations. The company expects the sale to close in t...

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In March 2024, Canada’s then resource minister, Jonathan Wilkinson, declared, “We are not interested in investing in LNG facilities.” This month, LNG Canada, the country’s first operating export terminal for the fuel, shipped its first cargo. Many believe this is the beginning of a beautiful friends...

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Joining me on this coming Thursday at 10AM CT will be Philip B. Hodge, President and CEO of Pine Cliff Energy (TSX: PNE) (OTCQX: PIFYF) Philip is going to update us on the natural gas market in Western Canada; specifically how the recent opening of LNG Canada and the building of AI Data Centers in A...

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We will be publishing an updated profile on BSM on Monday morning. My updated forecast/valuation model has been posted to the EPG website. You can view it directly from the EPG home page. Black Stone Minerals LP (BSM) is one of the four minerals companies in our High Yield Income Portfolio. It is a ...

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For the short week ending July 3rd the Sweet 16 portfolio gained 2.18% despite all four of the Gassers (AR, CTRA, EQT and RRC) moving lower on the week. The portfolio is still down 6.56% YTD not counting dividends and the gain we harvested on Veren (VRN) when it merged into Whitecap. The S&P 500...

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Actual export increases will be MUCH LOWER. ---------------------------------------- The OPEC+ group of eight, the V8 (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman), which made voluntary cuts and began unwinding them in April, met virtually today and decided to raise the p...

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Go to this link and click on Read Article to hear G&R's current view of how soon U.S. oil production will peak. https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/peak-shale-amid-maximum-pessimism?utm_campaign=Weekly%20Blog%20Notification&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=369536363&utm_content=369536363&utm_sou...

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It is OK to bring promising energy companies to our attention, but I don't have time to review them all. Plus, my industry experience is over 95% in the upstream oil and gas industry. HydroGraph Clean Power Inc. (HGRAF) is what I call a "Story Stock". If the story plays out as the manageme...

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Working gas in storage was 2,953 Bcf as of Friday, June 27, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 55 Bcf from the previous week. < First build less than the 5-year average after ten straight weeks of builds larger than the 5-year average. Stocks were 176 Bcf less than l...

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Watch the 32 minute interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1p2iPaE6NA Key points for us: 1. Iran closing the Strait of Hormus was never a risk. If they tried to close it, the military response would be swift. 2. The fundamentals point to WTI oil price over $70/bbl. OPEC+ increasing quotas (much...

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Yesterday EIA reported a 3.8 million barrel increase in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending June 27. HFI Reasearch note received this morning: This week's crude build is an anomaly. Reason? EIA did not count crude imports and exports correctly. Because EIA uses customs data for exports, t...

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Notes below are from 22V Research (very smart team) received after the markets closed on July 2. with my comments in blue. We’re getting questions about why oil is up today. This is a flash commentary to provide a quick and timely answer. In general, crudes worldwide are getting pulled higher by st...

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These "law suits" seldom lead to anything. These are lawyers just trying to generate fees. > Civitas increased production 24.5% year over year in 2023 and 62.8% year over year in 2024, primarily due to the Midland Basin Acquisition from Vencer Energy that closed in January 2024. > Producti...

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By Kim Strassel at the Wall Street Journal: Senate Republicans squeaked through Donald Trump’s megabill on Tuesday, 51-50, and cue the onslaught of misleading claims from Democratic opponents and their Beltway copywriters . The bill is far from perfect, and is facing headwinds from fiscal conservati...

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"Based on current rig counts, our models suggest that Permian production could fall by as much as 400,000 barrels per day by year-end. That’s not a small dip, but rather a meaningful shift in the global supply picture." Read the article at the link below carefully and you will understand ...

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At the time of this post, WTI (AUG25 futures contract) is up $1.43 to $66.88/bb. Crude oil and gasoline prices today are mixed, with crude prices climbing to a 1-week high. Crude has support on concerns that Middle East tensions could flare up again after Iran moved to cut off communications with th...

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Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending June 27, 2025 U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.1 million barrels per day during the week ending June 27, 2025, which was 118 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 94.9% of their operable c...

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LONDON (Reuters) -Oil futures edged up on Wednesday as Iran suspended cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog and markets weighed expectations of more supply from major producers next month while the U.S. dollar softened further. Brent crude added 60 cents, or 0.9%, to $67.71 a barrel at 1017 GMT...

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Israel Attacks Iran Nuclear Sites Israel launched a series of airstrikes vs. Iran overnight, targeting key nuclear facilities and military targets. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a televised address, said Operation Rising Lion "will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this t...

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Notes from HFI Research today: On July 6, the V8 will meet again to discuss whether or not to announce another truncated production increase. Judging by the leaks so far, it appears OPEC+ or V8 will agree to another +411k b/d increase. But since this plan was first announced in early April (coincidi...

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If the four Lovina wells are as good as the average Alica Renee HZ wells, my valuation of KGEI will be going a lot higher.

Lovina well results might be leaking out today. KGEI up 19% on heavy volume this afternoon.

dan_s

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israel-could-start-bombing-iran-again/ar-AA1HI8XI MY TAKE: Israel is not going to let the opportunity to crush Iran pass. They know a paper peace agreement with Iran is worthless. The only path to peace with Iran is regime change. The Supreme Leader's days are nu...

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MY TAKE: If the bill is signed into law on July 4th AND the Fed starts lowering interest rates, the U.S. economy will expand. This will increase the demand for energy. If we can move past the FEAR of the Tariff War, money should rotate into the stocks of profitable upstream oil & gas companies....

dan_s

That is the updated model for InPlay. I have updated my oil and gas price deck. Now using $70US for WTI in Q3 and $72.50US for WTI in Q4. I don't believe that the Israel / Iran war is over. The global oil market is much tighter than people think it is. In my opinion, when it becomes clear that U.S. ...

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By Irina Slav - Jun 30, 2025, 1:57 AM CDT Crude oil prices fell at the start of the week due to an anticipated increase in OPEC+ supply and the disappearance of the wartime premium after the Israel-Iran ceasefire. The global economic outlook remains cautious, with bearish sentiment also influenced b...

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I will finish updating all of the Sweet 16 individual forecasts models today. Models of AR, CIVI, CTRA, CRGY and EOG have already been posted to the EPG website. You can view them and download them from the EPG home page or by clicking on the Sweet 16 tab. The other 11 will be updated today and post...

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On June 17th NOG announced the closing of the previously announced sale of convertible notes. Cash proceeds will pay off debt with a higher interest rate and buyback common stock. Reducing interest expense by $5 million per year. The transaction also improves their debt repayment schedule. Details h...

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Trading Economics: WTI crude oil futures dropped to below $65 per barrel on Monday morning, after its sharpest weekly decline in over two years, amid easing tensions in the Middle East and the possibility that OPEC+ will further increase its oil output. > Crude prices tumbled over 11% last week, its...

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Posts like this should be under the "Picks and Tips" tab.
This tab is for Sabrina to post stuff about EPG membership and how to find thing on the EPG website.

dan_s

I would much rather have them focus on paying down debt. Debt reduction and share buybacks increase the value of the stock, but reducing debt is better during times of uncertainty.

dan_s

EOG's Acquisition of Encino Partners adds 235,000 Boepd for $5.6 Billion (20% oil, 50% Ngas, 30% NGL). Closing expected in mid-Q3 2025. EOG closed at $120.74 on June 27 TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 23 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for EOG. The average price target among the ana...

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A top EOG Resources executive agrees U.S. shale oil production has likely peaked and is now in decline. “I think U.S. shale oil has definitely slowed, there’s no doubt about it,” EOG COO Jeff Leitzell said June 24 in response to a question about peak U.S. oil at the JPMorgan Energy, Power, Renewable...

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I have now updated all of the forecasts for the following on the EPG website. 9 upstream companies in our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio: BTE.TO, JOY.TO, KGEI, REPX, REI, ROK.V, RBY.TO, SDE.TO, VTLE 4 minerals / royalties companies in our High Yield Income Portfolio: BSM, KRP, STR, VNOM (STR will soon b...

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My updated forecast/valuation model for Baytex has been posted to the EPG website.

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Calgary, Alberta--(Newsfile Corp. - June 27, 2025) - Baytex Energy Corp. (TSX: BTE) (NYSE: BTE) ("Baytex" or the "company") is pleased to announce that it has received strong support from its lending syndicate to extend its bank credit facilities. The US$1.1 billion revolving cre...

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Calgary, Alberta--(Newsfile Corp. - June 24, 2025) - Baytex Energy Corp. (TSX: BTE) (NYSE: BTE) ("Baytex" or the "company") is pleased to announce that the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") has accepted the company's notice of intention to renew its normal course issuer bi...

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