Energy Prospectus

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During the Trump administration’s tenure and “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign against Iran, Tehran’s oil revenues fell from roughly $65 billion in 2018 to $28 billion in 2019, and even lower at $16 billion in 2020, according to a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Whe...

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https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-expands-sanctions-against-iran-treasury-dept-says-2024-10-11/ "The new designations today also include measures against the 'Ghost Fleet' that carries Iran’s illicit oil to buyers around the world," Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, ...

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On October 11th the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) added sixteen Iranian-oil-related entities and twenty three oil tankers to its list of Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) subject to U.S. sanctions under Executive Order 13902, “Petroleum and Petrochemical Secto...

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Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) announced that its Board of Directors has approved a cash dividend on the Company's common stock in the amount of $0.38 per share. The dividend is payable on November 7, 2024 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on October 24, 2024. This represents a...

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Note from HFI Research this afternoon: The oil market is starting to come out of its apathy. Thanks to the geopolitical conflicts between Iran and Israel, financial fund flows are no longer overwhelmingly bearish. On the same token, physical oil market conditions have meaningfully improved and Q4 gl...

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U.S. electricity generators binge on ultra-cheap gas by John Kemp at Reuters: Exceptionally low gas prices have driven gas-fired generation to a record high in the United States, in the process eliminating most of the excess inventories inherited from the very mild winter of 2023/24. U.S. electricit...

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Mizuho Securities analyst William Janela has reiterated their bullish stance on PR stock, giving a Buy rating with a price target of $19.00. Note from TipRanks: William Janela has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors that indicate a positive outlook for Permian Resources’ stock. He a...

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They were doing something at the company that hosts our website server. They never let me know when they do this stuff.

dan_s

October 11: SilverCrest Metals (TSE:SIL) has released an update. SilverCrest Metals Inc. has announced a definitive arrangement with Coeur Mining, Inc. to be acquired in a court-approved plan, with SilverCrest shareholders receiving a premium of 1.6022 Coeur shares for each SilverCrest share, implyi...

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EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook dated October 8, 2024 Crude oil prices. We reduced our forecast for the Brent crude oil spot price through the end of next year. In this month’s outlook, we expect the Brent price will average $78 per barrel (b) in 2025, $7/b less than we expected in last month’s STE...

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Houthi Havoc: Oil Flows Shift as Ships Avoid Red Sea By Julianne Geiger - Oct 11, 2024, 11:00 AM CDT https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Houthi-Havoc-Oil-Flows-Shift-as-Ships-Avoid-Red-Sea.html Oil Prices Under Pressure Despite Major Upside Risk By Michael Kern - Oct 11, 2024, 8:23 AM CDT htt...

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It has been a wild week for oil prices. With all the risk to supply, the volatility will continue. There is an incredible amount of "noise" impacting the oil price recently. U.S. and OECD petroleum inventories are below normal for this time of year. Trading Economic at 12:30 ET WTI WTI cr...

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Press release on October 10th TERM-DEBT REPAYMENT UPDATE Journey and its long-term capital provider and largest shareholder, Alberta Investment Management Corporation (“AIMCo“), have reached an agreement today to amend the repayment terms of its remaining outstanding balance. Under the existing repa...

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KeTHkRnceWk When corporations pay less income taxes, they hire more people and pay them more. The economy grows and the tax base expands. Corporations pay more sales taxes and property taxes, which helps the states. They pay more social security taxes which is good fo...

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Our next Houston luncheon will be on Wednesday, November 13 hosted by Mundoro Capital. They are currently focused on doing exploration for copper. Mundoro has an interesting business strategy.

dan_s

See page 11 of their 2023 MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS for how netbacks are calculated by quarter for 2022 and 2023. Netbacks in 2024 based on my forecast are ($73.20 oil price X 79% Net Revenue Interest) - $7.50 operating expense per = $50.33/bbl of oil My valuations are based operating cas...

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Webinar replay link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upu2rXXyQa4

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Did Hurricane Milton Turn Natural Gas Stocks Into a Screaming Buy? Keith Kohl | Oct 10, 2024 You don’t often hear much about natural gas these days. There’s a reason for that. Natural gas stocks are often overshadowed by other sources that garner much more media attention. Between the bitter back an...

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Good work! My forecast for Q3 is a bit lower, but I agree with you that SM is likely to beat their production guidance for the 7th quarter in a row. Since 2021 SM has made incredible progress. Operating cash flow topped $1 billion in 2022, $1.5 billion in 2023 and they should top $1.7 billion in 202...

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Note this morning from HFI Research: "We are seeing the final days of US shale oil production. When associated gas production starts to meaningfully outpace crude production, that's typically when the basin starts to peak. We are starting to see that now in the Permian. While we still expect mi...

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Working gas in storage was 3,629 Bcf as of Friday, October 4, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 82 Bcf from the previous week. < 14 Bcf lower than the 5-year average, but larger than expected. Stocks were 124 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 176 Bcf above ...

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Good news that support level at $73 held today. Next lower support level is $71. Trading Economics: WTI crude oil futures fell 0.4% to $73.2 per barrel on Wednesday, following a 4.6% drop the previous day, driven by weak demand and increasing supply. > EIA data showed a 5.810 million barrel increase...

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KGEI is in our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio. The stock is trading below book value and at a discount to my current valuation of $4.65. First Call's current price target is $6.77US. Kolibri recently completed drilling 3 extended reach horizontal development wells with laterals of 1.5 miles. These well...

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Production guidance near the bottom lines up with my forecast. $400 million cash proceeds from the transactions below will be used to shore up the Company's balance sheet. VRN is trading at $8.88Cdn today, which compares to my current valuation of $14.86 ($11.00US). First Call's price target is $14...

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Per EIA website: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ Crude oil prices. We reduced our forecast for the Brent crude oil spot price through the end of next year. In this month’s outlook, we expect the Brent price will average $78 per barrel (b) in 2025, $7/b less than we expected in last month’s STEO. ...

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As of 8:00 a.m. eastern time on October 9, Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday as a major hurricane on the west coast of Florida with sustained winds of 160 miles per hour, creating the potential for significant disruptions to energy infrastructure. Utiliti...

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Here's why the oil price moved higher soon after the EIA storage report was released. From HFI Research: It's been a while since I've seen an EIA oil storage report as bullish as this one. The last time I saw a report this bullish, we would have to go back to early 2022. But you might ask, "HFI...

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As bad as the interview was, can you imagine what the uncut version was?

It really makes me wonder who is actually running the Democrat Party. They must have known that Kamala is unqualified for the job of "Commander-in-Chief".

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Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending October 04, 2024 U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.6 million barrels per day during the week ending October 04, 2024, which was 101 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 86.7% of their oper...

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We will take general questions about the oil & gas industry, prices, etc. at the end of tomorrow's webinar.
You must register to attend the live event.

https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_CRE6bkkHT0e8V28ZvWnCiQ#/registration

dan_s

Good work. My Q3 forecast is based on production of 22,000 Boepd. Riley likes to "under-promise and then over-deliver" on production guidance, so actual production is likely to be higher than my forecast. Q3 Adjusted Net Income (not including unrealized MTM gain on their hedges) should be ...

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Crude oil futures drifted lower Wednesday after sliding more than 4% the previous day. The rally spurred by the risk of a wider Middle East war has stalled out amid uncertainty over how Israel will retaliate against Iran for last week's ballistic missile strike. Chinese policymakers' failure to deli...

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The coming up election is an IQ test for Americans. CBS should be called out for this: CBS aired one part of a Kamala Harris answer to a question about Israel from its '60 Minutes' correspondent on Oct. 6, and then aired a shorter, different part of the answer a day later. https://www.msn.com/en-us/...

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Read my profile on Spartan Delta. This one has significant upside potential for us; especially if natural gas prices in Western Canada do rebound.

This company has a strong management team.

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REI trades at less than 2X 2024 operating cash flow per share. That is insane for a profitable company that is generating free cash flow and growing production. Ring just needs to stay focused on reducing debt. Warburg should sell out and move on if they are not going to support the company. REI clo...

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When someone won't answer a direct question, they are either ignorant or a liar.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e7OaAo04V_4

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You all need to watch this short ten minute YouTube video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oogojbMwbKQ

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Truist Securities Managing Director of Energy, Neal Dingmann shares his insights on Market Domination. Dingmann observes a "bit more risk-off" sentiment within the energy sector, noting an increasing bearish attitude among investors towards oil. However, he cautions that if Middle Eastern ...

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This is the "Refill Season" for crude oil, gasoline and distillates inventories, which are all below normal for this time of year. HFI Research: "For the week ending Oct 4, we have a crude storage build of 3.75 million bbls. With the massive drop in refinery throughput last week, refi...

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Whiplash : Yesterday we had a short covering rally and today we have the long paper traders closing their positions. Trading Economics WTI Oil "WTI crude oil futures fell over 5% below $73 per barrel on Tuesday by 1PM ET, pausing after a recent rally driven by geopolitical risks in the Middle ...

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Notes below are from Noble Research. Their price target for IPOOF is $6.00US per share. --------------------- Updating estimates. While we lowered our fiscal year 2024 adjusted funds flow estimate to C$83.9 million from C$91.0 million, our full year EPS estimate remains C$0.18. Based on the producti...

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From an EPG member at Brisco Capital, based in Calgary: Good morning, I wanted to bring to your attention Solaris Resources Inc. (TSX: SLS)(NYSE: SLSR) latest press release announcing Warintza assay results from the ongoing 60,000m drill program. Drill results continue to build on the 2024 Mineral R...

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Talos Energy is a former Sweet 16 company and likely to go back into our Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio after hurricane season. My valuation of TALO is $19.00. My updated forecast model has been posted to the EPG website. TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 7 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets ...

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MY TAKE: WTI has moved back into the trading range of $75 to $85, which I believe is the "Right Price" for oil, based on the fundamentals. U.S. and OECD Petroleum Inventories are lower than normal for this time of year and U.S. oil production has flatlined, unable to get back to the peak ...

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The alltime high price for copper on the NYMEX futures was $5.05/pound set on May 13, 2024. It slipped back to $4.00 early in August, 2024. Since September 2nd copper prices have risen more than 10%. Trading Economics: "Copper futures steadied around $4.50 per pound on Monday after experiencing...

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U.S. Energy Development Website: https://www.usedc.com/

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https://app.box.com/s/s8a232g53hgukspnffo8amotxaq5afad On October 3rd I joined Matthew Iak, Executive VP of U.S. Energy Development on their "Expert Speaker Series". A replay of our 1-hour discussion is at the link above. We discuss the impact on oil & gas prices of: > The war between...

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The Sweet 16 Summary spreadsheet, which also shows updated information for the companies in out Small-Cap and High Yield portfolio companies, has been posted to the EPG website.

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Yesterday I finished my review of the updated profile for InPlay Oil. My valuation increases by $0.25 to $3.75US per share for IPOOF. It closed at $1.55US on Friday. As noted on the first page of the profile, this stock is trading at less than the PV10 Net Asset Value of just its PDP reserves. NO pr...

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All 16 companies are going to report solid Q3 results. During the week ending October 4th the Sweet 16 gained 8.92% and is now up 3.06% YTD. This is feeling like a repeat of 2010. During that year the Sweet 16 flopped around up just 10% at the end of Q3 and then finished the year strong, gaining 54%...

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