Energy Prospectus

dan_s

That is the updated model. I have updated my oil and gas price deck. Now using $70US for WTI in Q3 and $72.50US for WIT in Q4. I don't believe that the Israel / Iran war is over. The global oil market is much tighter than people think it is. In my opinion, when it becomes clear that U.S. oil product...

dan_s

By Irina Slav - Jun 30, 2025, 1:57 AM CDT Crude oil prices fell at the start of the week due to an anticipated increase in OPEC+ supply and the disappearance of the wartime premium after the Israel-Iran ceasefire. The global economic outlook remains cautious, with bearish sentiment also influenced b...

dan_s

I will finish updating all of the Sweet 16 individual forecasts models today. Models of AR, CIVI, CTRA, CRGY and EOG have already been posted to the EPG website. You can view them and download them from the EPG home page or by clicking on the Sweet 16 tab. The other 11 will be updated today and post...

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On June 17th NOG announced the closing of the previously announced sale of convertible notes. Cash proceeds will pay off debt with a higher interest rate and buyback common stock. Reducing interest expense by $5 million per year. The transaction also improves their debt repayment schedule. Details h...

dan_s

Trading Economics: WTI crude oil futures dropped to below $65 per barrel on Monday morning, after its sharpest weekly decline in over two years, amid easing tensions in the Middle East and the possibility that OPEC+ will further increase its oil output. > Crude prices tumbled over 11% last week, its...

dan_s

Posts like this should be under the "Picks and Tips" tab.
This tab is for Sabrina to post stuff about EPG membership and how to find thing on the EPG website.

dan_s

I would much rather have them focus on paying down debt. Debt reduction and share buybacks increase the value of the stock, but reducing debt is better during times of uncertainty.

dan_s

EOG's Acquisition of Encino Partners adds 235,000 Boepd for $5.6 Billion (20% oil, 50% Ngas, 30% NGL). Closing expected in mid-Q3 2025. EOG closed at $120.74 on June 27 TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 23 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for EOG. The average price target among the ana...

dan_s

A top EOG Resources executive agrees U.S. shale oil production has likely peaked and is now in decline. “I think U.S. shale oil has definitely slowed, there’s no doubt about it,” EOG COO Jeff Leitzell said June 24 in response to a question about peak U.S. oil at the JPMorgan Energy, Power, Renewable...

dan_s

I have now updated all of the forecasts for the following on the EPG website. 9 upstream companies in our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio: BTE.TO, JOY.TO, KGEI, REPX, REI, ROK.V, RBY.TO, SDE.TO, VTLE 4 minerals / royalties companies in our High Yield Income Portfolio: BSM, KRP, STR, VNOM (STR will soon b...

dan_s

My updated forecast/valuation model for Baytex has been posted to the EPG website.

dan_s

Calgary, Alberta--(Newsfile Corp. - June 27, 2025) - Baytex Energy Corp. (TSX: BTE) (NYSE: BTE) ("Baytex" or the "company") is pleased to announce that it has received strong support from its lending syndicate to extend its bank credit facilities. The US$1.1 billion revolving cre...

dan_s

Calgary, Alberta--(Newsfile Corp. - June 24, 2025) - Baytex Energy Corp. (TSX: BTE) (NYSE: BTE) ("Baytex" or the "company") is pleased to announce that the Toronto Stock Exchange ("TSX") has accepted the company's notice of intention to renew its normal course issuer bi...

dan_s

From the The Associated Press 6-29-2025: Russia launched its biggest aerial attack against Ukraine overnight, a Ukrainian official said Sunday, part of an escalating bombing campaign that has further dashed hopes for a breakthrough in efforts to end the 3-year-old war. Russia fired a total of 537 ae...

dan_s

Ayaan Hirsi Ali: Decades ago, she escaped the Islamic world and came to the West. Many don't know how good the West is, or how fragile. She fights for the restoration of what made the West great. ------------------------------ Her is her assessment of what is going on in the Middle East: "I un...

dan_s

We are flying back today from a wonderful week in Puerto Vallarta at La Vista (one of our Happy Places) with 11 close friends. We will be home late on Saturday, and I will start working on my June newsletter on Sunday afternoon. I hope to finish it on July 2. Casa La Vista ( https://www.casalavista....

dan_s

No, but I should be.

The federal government needs to put a stop to the Fear Mongering about climate change. Instead they need to educate the public to the fact that without fossil fuels we would not come close to the standard of living we enjoy.

dan_s

TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 12 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for SM. The average price target among the analysts is $37.64." SM is one of my Top Picks in the Sweet 16. It closed on June 27 at $25.10. It is free cash flow positive, and IT HAS A LOT OF HIGH-QUALITY "RU...

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EBW Analytics Morning Report: Natural Gas Continues to Slump Ahead of July Final Settlement The July natural gas contract slumped into options expiry yesterday, closing down 58¢ off Thursday's high as offtakersed focus on continued soft physical market realizations. Henry Hub spot prices cleared abo...

dan_s

MY TAKE: I chance of a "Peace Agreement" with Iran are slim and none. They have no respect for paper deals. If the ceasefire lasts a month I will be surprised. Iran has already started executing people they believe are against the current government. Why would Israel agree to anything les...

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The U.S. and China have confirmed details of a trade framework that seeks to allow rare earth exports and easing of tech restrictions, according to a statement released by China's Ministry of Commerce Friday afternoon. China will review and approve export applications for items subject to export con...

dan_s

The front month NYMEX contract (AUG25) was trading at $3.62 at the time of this post. US natural gas futures fell during the week, pressured by rising production and a larger-than-expected storage build. According to the EIA, US utilities added 96 billion cubic feet of gas to storage in the week end...

dan_s

Trading Economics: WTI crude oil futures rose for a third straight session toward $66 per barrel on Friday morning but remained on track for its worst week since March 2023, following a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. > Oil prices swung within a $15-per-barrel range this week, surging on Monday a...

dan_s

Crude oil prices were set to end the week lower than they started it as Israel and Iran stopped bombing each other, alleviating fears of a supply disruption in the Middle East. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $68 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $65.55 per barrel. That’...

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CTRA closed at $29.95 on June 26. Coterra Energy Inc. (NYSE:CTRA) received a boost recently after Raymond James analyst John Freeman raised the stock’s price target from $33 to $38, while maintaining an ‘Outperform’ rating on its shares. The development follows Coterra’s performance in the first qu...

dan_s

It will never happen only because it is an easy and logical solution to our broken federal government. Another easy solution is to cut 10% from every department's budget.

dan_s

Working gas in storage was 2,898 Bcf as of Friday, June 20, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 96 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 196 Bcf less than last year at this time and 179 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,719 Bcf. At 2,898 Bcf, total working gas is...

dan_s

Trading Economics: WTI crude oil futures rose over 1% to near $66 per barrel on Thursday, as markets weighed mixed signals on US-Iran tensions and future supply risks. > Despite US airstrikes, reports suggest Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile remains mostly intact, while Tehran passed a law suspendi...

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Is Oil a Buy After the Price Crash? by Keith Kohl The oil market giveth, and the oil market taketh away. If you had told me a decade ago that Israeli and U.S. bombs would rain destruction down upon Iran’s nuclear facilities, or that the Ayatollah’s regime was in serious jeopardy as he flees to becom...

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The U.S. government has been running budget deficits for years — consistently spending more than it collects. And while neither party has managed to rein in the red ink, legendary investor Warren Buffett once offered a surprisingly simple fix. "I could end the deficit in five minutes,” Buffett ...

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LNG Canada Update The Shell-led facility has officially produced its first liquefied natural gas (LNG), marking Canada’s debut as a Pacific-coast exporter of LNG. The initial output comes from Train 1 of the plant, which currently operates at about half capacity due to a partial line fault, with a f...

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For each of the companies in your portfolio, it is important to know their production mix, hedges and where the ngas is coming from.

dan_s

Notes below are from EBW Analytics Natural Gas Continues to Slump Ahead of July Final Settlement The July natural gas contract slumped into options expiry yesterday, closing down 58¢ off Thursday's high as offtakersed focus on continued soft physical market realizations. Henry Hub spot prices cleare...

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Comments on the US Weekly Oil Data from Anas Alhajji "US crude oil and distillate inventories declined to below the five-year range. If crude inventories follow historical trends and fall below 400 million barrels, we will turn bullish on oil. At that point, we expect US crude exports to declin...

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Shell and BP: A Supermajor Merger in the Making? In the business world, two of the largest names in energy—Shell and BP—are in early talks for a potential merger. If it happens, this would be the biggest oil deal in a generation, combining two “supermajors” into a single powerhouse. BP’s shares jump...

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After three-term former governor Andrew Cuomo called to concede, Zohran Mamdani declared victory in yesterday’s landmark mayoral election in New York City. Profile: The 33-year-old state assemblyman, who describes himself as a Muslim socialist , has repeatedly refused to affirm Israel’s right to exi...

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The Natural Gas Market is tighter than you think. HFI Research 6-25-2025 There's nothing like the natural gas market where you can round-trip 15% up and down in the matter of days. Sorry oil, you only do that when it's driven by geopolitics. Natural gas is the widowmaker for a reason and the recent ...

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Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending June 20, 2025 U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17 million barrels per day during the week ending June 20, 2025, which was 125 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 94.7% of their operable cap...

dan_s

Trading Economics at noon ET: WTI crude oil futures rose more than 1% above $65 per barrel on Wednesday morning, after plunging nearly 13% over the previous two sessions, the sharpest two-day drop since 2022. > Markets remain focused on developments in the Middle East, where a US-brokered ceasefire ...

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Significant Developments The heat wave in the Northeast is receding, after ISO-NE saw real-time prices climb to $1,360/MWh, PJM traded $1,278/MWh and NYISO real-time pricing hit $1,105/MWh amid a severely strained grid. In New York, ConEd reduced voltage to protect aging infrastructure. Natural gas ...

dan_s

EBW Analytics: July Contract Collapse Extends Ahead of Options Expiration The July natural gas contract shed another 16.1¢ yesterday as the collapse in NYMEX futures sparked by weak Henry Hub spot market realizations continued. While the past 24 months boasts an average loss of 4.9¢ into the monthly...

dan_s

Declining active rig counts in most oil & gas basins mean fewer job. Even if current estimates of slowing and stopping growth in total U.S. oil production by the end of the year pan out, skilled talent will be needed for years to come to fill the high-demand jobs in the sector. Yet, with an age...

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Update at 10:30 AM CT Trading Economics; WTI crude futures fell by around 5% to $65.2 per barrel, extending a 7.5% loss in the previous session and trading below levels seen on June 12 when Israel attacked Iran. > The decline followed President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and ...

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Notes below are from EBW Analytics Natural Gas Plunges on Physical Market Disappointment The July natural gas contract traded as low as $3.582 overnight (56.6¢ off Friday's peak). Henry Hub spot prices at $3.52 yesterday due to scorching heat forced a reckoning across the summer strip as to how much...

dan_s

Weakening US dollar and no tariffs on Canada's exports of oil & gas to the U.S. are also a tailwind for Canadian stock prices.

dan_s

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said missiles fired from Iran were intercepted on Tuesday morning in what Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said was a "blatant violation" of the ceasefire. Katz said he had ordered "intense strikes against regime targets in the heart of Tehran"...

dan_s

Oil prices continue to plunge on Monday afternoon following US President Donald Trump's announcement of a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran, significantly reducing geopolitical risk premiums. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for August delivery fell as much as 5.1% to $65.02 per barrel ...

dan_s

Comments below are from Trading Economics: WTI crude oil futures tumbled 7.2% to settle at $68.50 per barrel on Monday, after Iran’s missile strike on a US airbase in Qatar resulted in no reported casualties, easing fears of an immediate escalation in Middle East tensions. > The attack, launched in ...

dan_s

Regional weekend gas production increased, particularly in the Permian, as subdued late-spring production readings due to widespread pipeline maintenance eventually began to rise. This week, the Mid-Atlantic heat wave may coax higher spot prices and rising Marcellus production. The next seven days m...

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Significant Developments The US bombing of three Iranian nuclear enrichment sites over the weekend has provoked the Iranian parliament to pass a resolution approving the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The final decision, however, rests with the regime’s National Security Council. While still very ...

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