Energy Prospectus

dan_s

Paul Colborne, Surge's CEO will be speaking at our Houston luncheon on November 18th . Non-EPG Members are invited to attend. Q3 2025 Results were announced on November 6th. In Q3/25, Surge's production averaged 23,622 boepd (88 percent liquids), well above the Company's budgeted average 2H/25 prod...

dan_s

Surge Energy is one of the Canadian upstream companies in our High Yield Income Portfolio. At the November 7th closing price of $6.61Cdn the annualized dividend yield is 7.87%. Surge pays monthly dividends. Q3 2025 Results were announced on November 6th. In Q3/25, Surge's production averaged 23,622 ...

dan_s

The Global Oil Market and the U.S. Natural Gas Market are MUCH DIFFERENT. I expect the WTI oil price to average $60/bbl in Q4 and drift slightly higher to an average of $62.50/bbl in 2026. U.S. crude oil production has peaked or will peak soon. It will decline in Q1 2026, due to weather related iss...

dan_s

NYMEX Strip for HH gas. JUL26 through FEB27 are currently all over $4.00/MMBtu with JAN at $4.99/MMBtu Trading Economics US natural gas futures rose to above $4.30 per MMBtu, hovering at the highest since March, driven by near-record LNG export demand . > Flows to the eight major LNG plants averaged...

dan_s

Working gas in storage was 3,915 Bcf as of Friday, October 31, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 33 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 6 Bcf less than last year at this time and 162 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,753 Bcf. At 3,915 Bcf, total working gas i...

dan_s

https://us02web.zoom.us/rec/share/B4kSKhrlIF29GTolf0ShrrQrzd3yzKk3gqJAgukT6PSBcs-CMpcK8PM8oHLuGojM._MbjU-DDcMJl5mL0 Passcode: xPs^0n^j I highly recommend that all of you watch the replay of Pine Cliff's Nov. 6 webcast to learn how bullish the Western Canada natural gas market will be in Q1 2026. The...

dan_s

THIRD QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS Total quarterly production of 131,054 Boe per day (55% oil), up 8% from the third quarter of 2024 < In line with my forecast of 131,000 Boepd . Oil volumes of 72,348 Bbl per day, up 2.0% from the third quarter of 2024 < Slightly lower than my oil production forecast of 73,36...

dan_s

Civitas Resources, Inc. (NYSE: CIVI) (the "Company" or "Civitas") today reported its third quarter 2025 financial and operating results. Civitas’ third quarter 2025 earnings webcast and conference call scheduled for Friday, November 7, 2025, has been cancelled as a result of the ...

dan_s

My updated stock valuation is $44.

First Call's price target is $48 and TipRanks' price target is $36.

REPX is a pure play on Permian Basin oil. Natural gas and NGLs generate negative net income. Should at least go positive in 2026.

Solid company that pays a nice dividend.

dan_s

I am using 35,000 Boepd in my 2026 forecast, 60% oil, 19.5% natural gas and 20.5% NGLs. Natural gas price realization should at least go positive in 2026 due to their midstream projects. Power generation business should also generate some revenues in 2026.

dan_s

THIRD QUARTER 2025 AND RECENT HIGHLIGHTS Averaged 32.3 MBoe/d of total equivalent production (oil production of 18.4 MBbls/d) < Beat my forecast of 30,200 Boepd and 17,546 bopd . Generated $64 million of operating cash flow or $54 million before changes in working capital < Beat my forecast of $49.9...

dan_s

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We had some issues with the Forum last week, due to a software update. Seem to be resolved.

If you have any problems with the EPG website or the Forum it is best to email Sabrina at energyprospectus@gmail.com

dan_s

Permian Resources Corporation ("Permian Resources" or the "Company") (NYSE: PR) today announced its third quarter 2025 financial and operational results and revised 2025 guidance. Recent Financial and Operational Highlights Reported total average production of 410.2 MBoe/d, inclu...

dan_s

Here is the link to register for the webinar> https://www.gowebcasting.com/events/pine-cliff-energy/2025/11/06/q3-results-webcast/play

dan_s

NOG’s Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend in the amount of $0.45 per share, consistent with the Company’s previously announced plan. The dividend is payable on January 30, 2026, to stockholders of record as of the close of business on December 30, 2025. At today's closing price of $20.49...

dan_s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMAenQ_Uqgg

CelsiusEnergy is now forecasting that we will see the first draw from U.S. natural gas storage the week ending November 14. If so, it will be a week earlier than normal.

dan_s

Phil Hodge, Pine Cliff's CEO will be on a webinar for Adelaide Capital on Thursday at 2pm ET. Phil will give an update on Pine Cliff and on the shape of the natural gas market in Western Canada, which I expect to tighten up this winter. If you want to attend the webinar, send me an email and I will ...

dan_s

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for Diamondback for their solid Q3 results and detailed guidance for Q4 2025. They have not provided preliminary guidance for 2026, so my forecast assumes 5% YOY production growth. < Their production exceeds guidance every quarter . At the time of this post...

dan_s

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for OVV for the Company's strong Q3 results, updated guidance, and the impact of the accretive NuVista Acquisition that is expected to close in Q1 2026. NuVista will add ~100,000 Boepd of production and a lot more high-quality "Running Room" in Ca...

dan_s

From TipRanks Premium: Earnings Call Sentiment: Positive The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, efficient capital allocation, and operational excellence, with significant free cash flow and debt reduction. The integration of Montney assets and the use of innovative technologies ...

dan_s

NuVista Energy Enters Into Agreement to be Acquired by Ovintiv $18.00 per NuVista Share Purchase Price, payable 50% in cash and 50% in Ovintiv Shares, represents a 21% premium to NuVista’s unaffected 20 day volume-weighted NuVista Share price as of September 19, 2025, and above any closing price in ...

dan_s

EIA's next Short Term Energy Outlook will be released on November 12. It will be interesting to see how they explain such low petroleum inventories and keep forecasting that the GLUT is just a few more weeks away.

dan_s

Still no GLUT of oil, gasoline or distillates (the "Big Three") in the U.S., but the media will keep spreading the False Paradigm because the goal is to get the Fed to keep lowering interest rates. -------------------------------- Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending Octob...

dan_s

3rd Quarter Highlights: Generated cash from operating activities of $812 million, Non-GAAP Cash Flow of $895 million and Non-GAAP Free Cash Flow of $351 million after capital expenditures of $544 million < Non-GAAP cash flow beat my forecast of $828 million . Third quarter production was at or above...

dan_s

From TipRanks Premium: Earnings Call Sentiment - Positive The earnings call presented a largely positive outlook with significant achievements in revenue growth and strategic expansions in the Power Solutions segment. However, challenges remain in the Logistics Solutions segment and supply chain con...

dan_s

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for SEI's strong Q3 results and increased EBITDA guidance. It will be available on the EPG website this afternoon. My current valuation increases by $2 to $57 per share. ------------------------------ Third Quarter 2025 Summary Results and Key Updates Reve...

dan_s

3rd quarter financial results > Net income was $155.1 million, or $1.35 per diluted common share, and Adjusted net income was $153.7 million, or $1.33 per diluted common share. < Beat my forecast of $142.2 million net income. > Net cash provided by operating activities of $505.0 million before net c...

dan_s

Financial and Operational Highlights Mineral and royalty production for the third quarter of 2025 equaled 34.7 MBoe/d, an increase of 5% from the prior quarter; total production, including working-interest volumes, was 36.3 MBoe/d for the quarter. < Total production exceeded my forecast of 34,000 Bo...

dan_s

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for Crescent Energy as a stand alone company. My valuation remains at $22/share. < The merger of Vital Energy into Crescent Energy is expected to be accretive on all per share financial measures, so my post-closing valuation will be a few dollars higher. CR...

dan_s

Trading Economics WTI at $60.83 when this was posted. WTI crude oil futures fell to below $61 per barrel on Tuesday after a four-day advance, amid persistent concerns about oversupply despite OPEC+’s decision to pause output increases early next year. > The producer group agreed to a modest producti...

dan_s

Note below from TipRanks 11-4-2025 Crescent Energy Company Class A (CRGY) In a report released today, Gabriele Sorbara from Siebert Williams Shank & Co maintained a Buy rating on Crescent Energy Company Class A, with a price target of $12.00. The company’s shares closed last Monday at $8.54. Acc...

dan_s

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for Coterra. It will be available on the EPG website this afternoon. At the time of this post CTRA was trading at $25.27, up 3.6% today. I have increased my valuation by $2 to $34 per share, primarily because the company's Adjusted Operating Cash Flow beat ...

dan_s

Coterra announced Q3 results on November 3rd after the markets closed. Third-Quarter 2025 Highlights Net Income (GAAP) totaled $322 million, or $0.42 per share. Adjusted Net Income (non-GAAP) was $312 million, or $0.41 per share. < Below my forecast of $358 million net income . Cash Flow From Operat...

dan_s

Vital Energy Q3 Results Third-Quarter 2025 Highlights > Reported a net loss of $353.5 million, Adjusted Net Income of $57.6 million and cash flow from operating activities of $286.6 million < Ignore the Reported Net Loss. Adjusted Net Income beat my forecast of $41.6 million and my Adjusted operatin...

dan_s

Crescent Energy Company (NYSE: CRGY) ("Crescent" or the "Company"), today announced financial and operating results for the third quarter of 2025. A supplemental slide deck can be found at www.crescentenergyco.com. The Company plans to host a conference call and webcast at 10 a.m...

dan_s

I finished my final review of the updated profiles for AR and RRC today. Both of these large-cap gassers will be very profitable in 2026 if HH Ngas averages $4.00/MMBtu in 2026. With the weather forecast for December turning colder in the Great Lake Region and Northeast, we could see HH Ngas at $5.0...

dan_s

SM Energy has a solid management team. I trust their judgement. Deals of this size don't happen without a lot of detailed review of the numbers. Watch the replay of their webcast. Both companies generate a lot of free cash flow. Post-Merger, SM will have ~550,000 Boepd of production and a lot of Run...

dan_s

Trading Economics: WTI crude oil futures traded around $61.25 per barrel on Monday morning, swinging between small gains and losses as traders assessed OPEC+’s decision to pause output increases next quarter amid expectations of slowing demand and looming oversupply. > The alliance said the move ref...

dan_s

Story by IntelliNews 11-3-2025 Supermajor Shell forecasts that the second liquefaction train at LNG Canada will come online before the end of the year, the company’s Chief Financial Officer Sinead Gorman stated on October 30, Reuters reported. Shell is the project lead on Canada’s flagship LNG facil...

dan_s

Watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yp7d6z34eJw < If this forecast is accurate, we should see the HH natural gas price over $4.50/MMBtu by the end of November. JAN26 NYMEX futures contract, which will be the front month contract on November 26, is trading at $4.40/MMBtu this morning. Joe Bas...

dan_s

Anas Alhajji Nov 3 The OPEC+ V8 met yesterday for 14 minutes and decided to unwind 137 kb/d in December from the 1.6 mb/d voluntary cuts agreed in April 2023. However, the group decided to pause unwinding the rest of the 1.6 mb/d in the first quarter of 2026. “In view of a steady global economic out...

dan_s

On Sunday, eight OPEC+ members agreed to raise December output by 137Kbpd as expected, maintaining pace of prior two months. Group will also pause further production increase in Q1 2026, reaffirming cautious approach ahead of seasonally softer demand . > Pause aimed in part at giving countries time ...

dan_s

Aluminum and copper now top the global Commodity Condition Indices (CCI) table, displacing gold, which slips to No. 6 after three weeks at No. 1 and eight weeks ranked in the top two. This relative motion marks a rotation driven by rising industrial commodity strength, not a collapse in precious met...

dan_s

I heard this rumor two weeks ago. DENVER, CO November 3, 2025 - SM Energy Company (“SM Energy”) (NYSE: SM) and Civitas Resources, Inc. (“Civitas”) (NYSE: CIVI) today announced they have entered into a definitive merger agreement involving an all-stock transaction (the “Transaction”). Under the terms...

dan_s

During the week ending October 31st, the Sweet 16 declined 0.41% and is now down 10.31% YTD The S&P 500 Index gained 0.83% last week and is now up 16.30% YTD. It is up 21.9% since Trump started the "Tariff War", which the Democrats said would destroy the U.S. economy, and cause runaway...

dan_s

EIA's misleading U.S. oil production report. Anas Alhajji: "Cheers from Abu Dhabi. I will spend this week at ADIPEC, where most of the world’s who’s who in energy are attending. While the main focus is AI, other hot topics such as LNG, trade wars, tariffs, and sanctions will also dominate discu...

dan_s

Link to YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZeveZTPNQE KEY POINT: The outlook for U.S. natural gas price is very bullish The Sweet 16 Summary Spreadsheet, which I update each weekend, show the production mix (crude oil, natural gas, NGLs) for each company in all three of our model portfolios. ...

dan_s

Comments below are from Keith Kohl's Energy Investor newsletter dated 10-31-2025 From our vantage point Matador stands out in the U.S. upstream sector for a key reason: efficiency. That’s been the case ever since we established our initial position back in 2022. Look, we’re in a period when many U....

dan_s

The financing is now in place to close the merger with Vital Energy. My guess is that it will close by the end of November. HOUSTON, October 22, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Crescent Energy Company (NYSE: CRGY) ("Crescent" or the "Company") today announced the successful completion of...

dan_s

In the interview below they point out how undervalued CRGY is. It is the 2nd of 3 companies they recommend. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/3-undervalued-energy-stocks-under-20-with-big-potential/vi-AA1OxJsi TipRanks on 11-1-2025: "Based on 8 Wall Street analysts offering 12 month pri...

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