Energy Prospectus

dan_s

Note from Keith Kohl this afternoon. In the midst of intense Israeli airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, Tehran has signaled a willingness to de-escalate the conflict. There is, however, one key condition: That the United States refrain from joining Israel’s offensive. T...

dan_s

Oil price volatility today: > We can expect the paper traders to react to each news headline. > No one really knows where the oil price will end up, but until there is a clear and final end to this "conflict" a "geopolitical premium" should remain no the price of oil. Unless Isra...

dan_s

With Israel claiming air superiority over Iran's capital city of Tehran, Iran is reportedly sending urgent signals to Israel, U.S. Arab allies, and European officials it wants a ceasefire and a return to diplomacy. Israel has claimed its ability to fly planes unabated over Tehran on Monday, though, ...

dan_s

If you are a non-member that would like to read my updated profile on ROK Resources, send me an email: dmsteffens@comcast.net

dan_s

At our Houston luncheon on Thursday, June 20th, which is being hosted by ROK Resources, both Bryden Wright, President & CEO and Jared Lukomski, SVP of Business Development will both be speaking. They are going to cover the impact (or lack thereof) of tariffs on exports of oil, natural gas, steel...

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Friday's CFTC Commitments of Traders report indicated speculators continue to build up natural gas positions en masse, although a 30,000-contract increase in longs was more than fully offset by 38,000-contract increase in shorts. Total speculator positioning rose by 90,000 contracts in the two weeks...

dan_s

Note from HFI Research this morning Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran are at an all-time high, but I come bearing advice for those of you who want to stay sane amidst the chaos in the oil market: > Avoid listening to geopolitical experts. > Avoid listening to those who say Iran will clos...

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From June 10 EIA Short Term Energy Outlook Electricity demand. We have increased our forecast for retail electricity sales to better reflect projected demand growth, especially in the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and PJM independent system operators. The revisions are most notabl...

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EBW Analytics Group Building Summer Heat Guides Natural Gas Rebound The July natural gas contract rose to $3.760 last night as traders reacted to a sustained push higher in early-summer cooling demand. Week 2 jumped 8 CDDs to 85 CDDs, with power burns to rise 4 Bcf/d from last week into the first of...

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Watch this see how important the Houston Ship Channel is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=Ki3lvz9otVQ

dan_s

As tensions escalate between Israel and Iran, oils futures are reacting. Israel’s latest air-strikes on Iranian targets sent Brent crude soaring 13% intraday and still closing 7% higher at $74.23/bbl. Futures traders fear any tit-for-tat escalation could squeeze the roughly 1.6 million barrels a day...

dan_s

By Michael Kern - Jun 15, 2025, 8:40 AM CDT Israel launched a series of airstrikes on Iran's critical energy infrastructure, targeting major fuel depots and oil refineries in Tehran. The attacks have significantly escalated the conflict between Israel and Iran, leading to global oil price surges and...

dan_s

June 15: Iranian lawmaker and military general Esmail Kosari said Tehran is reviewing whether to close the Strait of Hormuz - a critical oil route for the global economy. Meanwhile, Iranian state media said the country had warned it would target military bases in the region that assist in intercepti...

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I just posted my updated profile on ROK Resources (ROK.V and ROKRF) to the EPG website. In early 2025 ROK focused on cleaning up the balance sheet and building up their cash balance before starting their 2025 drilling program. > Q1 2025 free cash flow all went to paying down their existing line of c...

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A fire broke out at Kangan Port in Iran’s Bushehr province following an Israeli drone strike targeting on onshore refinery at Phase 14 of the South Pars gas field in the Persian Gulf on Saturday. It was the first attack by Israel specifically targeting Iran's critical energy sector. The strike cause...

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VNOM closed at $42.52 on June 13. Of the four minerals companies in our High Yield Income Portfolio it is my Top Pick for growth. < Viper's production will be going from 57,378 Boepd in Q1 2025 to over 130,000 by year end 2025. Viper is a C-Corp., so a good choice for an IRA account. Since Viper ann...

dan_s

On Newsmax this morning: The Middle East situation is "going to get rough" and "we're going to see the Iranians out of desperation throw everything they can," at Israel, retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt said on Newsmax, Friday. "They'll try to probably close the Stra...

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I took a hard look at the at Crescent Energy (CRGY) this morning. Crescent Energy is a "Growth by Acquisitions" company, which is out-of-favor by most of the Wall Street Gang these days because their first assumption is that the Company paid too much for the acquired assets. Q2 2025 will b...

dan_s

Watch this video: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-ready-to-do-more-amid-israel-iran-conflict-wesley-clark/ar-AA1GGtPW

If the real goal is regime change in Iran, this conflict will go on for months.

dan_s

At this point, there is no way to know where oil prices will be next week or next month. For example CNBC reported that: JPMorgan analysts are convinced that escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East won’t have a lasting impact on oil prices in the second half of 2025. In a note to clients...

dan_s

For the week ending June 13 the Sweet 16 gained 6.72% and is now down just 2.32% YTD, not counting dividends or the gain realized on VRN. For the week the S&P 500 Index lost 0.50% and is now up 1.62% YTD. WTI oil price increased 7.26% on Friday to close at $72.98/bbl due to Israel's attack on Ir...

dan_s

Trading Economics WTI crude oil futures jumped 7.55% to settle just at $73.18 per barrel on Friday, paring some gains after hitting their highest level since February amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. > The surge followed an Israeli strike on Iran, which vowed retaliation, heightening fea...

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Civitas Resources (CIVI) closed today at less than 50% of book value. If WTI oil stays over $70/bbl, it makes CIVI a "Screaming Buy" up to $42, which was First Call's price target last week. Crescent Energy (CRGY) and SM Energy (SM) also closed today below book value. Both of them are Str...

dan_s

Kolibri (KGEI) production mix is ~73% crude oil and all of its oil hedges are collars. Most of the collars have ceilings in the $80s. Plus it does get good prices for its gas. Big well announcements coming out soon. Baytex (BTE) production mix is ~70% crude oil and it is getting good prices for its ...

dan_s

At 3:30 ET WTI is now up over 8%. Two hours ago it was up 6%. I think the Wall Street Gang is coming around to the fact that the airstrikes against Iran are far from over. Plus, Israel did say that if Iran attacks their population centers, Israel might take out some of their oil export capacity. The...

dan_s

Netanyahu calling on the Iranian people to rise up and get rid of the Supreme Leader. If they do, Iran can become one of the most successful and prosperous countries on Earth.

dan_s

Interior Department Announces $200 Billion LNG Supply Agreements With Japan U.S. companies have finalized sales agreements with Japanese power generation giant JERA Co. Inc. for it to purchase up to 5.5 million tons per year of American liquefied natural gas (LNG), the Department of the Interior (DO...

dan_s

I agree that Marsden can be much bigger than Atlee Buffalo. At this point there is still a chance that it won't be successful, but based on my conversation with Don Simmons, he believes that it will be successful. I know that his team did a lot of geological work before they acquired the acreage. Th...

dan_s

Looks like we are going to have over 200 on the live webinar on Tuesday, June 17.

All we needed was Israel to bomb Iran and now everyone is interest in oil & gas stocks again!

dan_s

This happened a few miles from my home SW of Houston. HOUSTON, Texas – A Sugar Land, TX man and his neighbour are in police custody after the duo drilled an unauthorized gas well in the backyard of one of the men in search of a fuel source for their extraordinarily large homemade backyard grill. Del...

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Hemisphere is the most heavily weighted to the price of oil, out of all the upstream companies that I follow. It is a pure play on Canadian Heavy Oil and none of the Company's oil is subject to U.S. tariffs. At the time of this post HMENF was trading at $1.44US. If WTI oil averages $70US/bbl in Q2 a...

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At least 20 senior Iranian commanders including the head of the revolutionary guards, Aerospace Force Commander Amir Ali Hajizadeh, were killed in Israel's strikes on Iran on Friday, two regional sources told Reuters.

dan_s

Iran no longer plans to engage in nuclear talks with the U.S. that were scheduled to take place in Oman on Sunday, Iranian leaders announced Friday after Israel launched deadly airstrikes it said targeted Tehran’s nuclear facilities and military sites. Oman News Agency and Iranian state media report...

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You may recall that two months ago Trump gave Iran's Supreme Leader 60 days to agree to end all nuclear enrichment. Today is Day 61. ------------------------------- Most of the Sweet 16 and our other model portfolio companies are up this morning, but not as much as I expected. Overall market weaknes...

dan_s

This is not a "One and Done" military strike. Looks like Israel is going to make sure Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities are eliminated. If so, they are doing the world a favor. --------------------- Associated Press: Israel has launched a second wave of airstrikes targeting Iranian ci...

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Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt told Newsmax on Thursday that the strikes in Tehran tell him that Israel might be going for a "decapitation strike" on Iran and its leaders. Holt also asserted that the countries are now "in a state of war." Holt joined "Finnerty"...

dan_s

Trading Economics: US natural gas futures edged above $3.50 per MMBtu, tracking broader gains across energy markets amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. However, the increase was more muted compared to the sharp moves seen in oil and other gas benchmarks. The geopolitical spike followed Isra...

dan_s

Israel said it had targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders on Friday at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon, while Iran has promised a harsh response. U.S. President Donald Trump u...

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Brent crude oil futures briefly rose above $78 before settling around $74 per barrel on Friday, reaching their highest level since February amid fears of supply disruptions following Israel’s strike against Iran. > Israel declared a special situation, suggesting Iran could soon retaliate against Isr...

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Reuters: Oil jumps nearly 9% after Israel's strikes on Iran ------------------------- Crude oil analysts are in a rush to revise their forecasts in the wake of Israel’s attacks on Iran as geopolitics trumps fundamentals yet again. “Oil could spike toward $80 if Middle East tensions escalate and supp...

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Macro Voices interview with an oil market expert, Rory Johnson

https://macrovoices.podbean.com/e/macrovoices-484-rory-johnston-crude-oil-forward-curve-conundrum/?token=b41ba60e71991b0625d705d71e8f9957

dan_s

Our updated profile and my forecast/valuation model for PAA has been posted to the EPG website. My updated valuations are $23 for PAA and $22 for PAGP. These are "Growth + Income" investments with dividend yields over 8% AND they will be increasing dividends each year for up to five years....

dan_s

Bloomberg Analysts are making credible arguments that oil could slump into the $40s -- or soar to $120. Even for a commodity with a volatile history like oil, that price range is remarkable. Late on Wednesday, Brent crude, the international benchmark, briefly rose above $70 a barrel for the first ti...

dan_s

Crude oil prices dropped back slightly on Thursday, after jumping by 4% on Wednesday to hit the highest in two months on the news that the U.S. was pulling out its staff from the embassy in Baghdad. The drop was driven by profit-taking, but bullish sentiment remains. At the time of writing, Brent cr...

dan_s

FEAR of "What will OPEC+ do next?" is one of the 3 primary fears that are headwinds for the oil price. > FEAR of "Drill Baby Drill" never was a realistic fundamental problem, but since Trump said it hundreds of times leading up to the election the Wall Street Gang spread the fear...

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Is California on Pace for $8 a Gallon Gas? Speaking of blue state dysfunction, maybe a better reason for protests in Los Angeles would be the absurdly high prices in the Golden State, thanks to years and decades of green extremism. Gasoline prices in California average $4.67 per gallon, while the na...

dan_s

Read all of the replies to the previous post, which includes a prediction that the NYMEX strip for HH natural gas should be over $5.00/MMBtu for the 12 months of 2026 by December 2025. ------------------------- Working gas in storage was 2,707 Bcf as of Friday, June 6, 2025, according to EIA estima...

dan_s

Notes from 22V Research this morning + Crude prices surged on Middle East tensions yesterday afternoon. They were also responding to three constructive market factors: (1) news of the U.S.-China trade truce, (2) the benign U.S. CPI report, and (3) strong EIA stats for U.S. oil demand. + But prompt W...

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EBW Analytic Group: Natural Gas Demand Surge Begins to Take Shape The July natural gas contract declined for a third straight day yesterday to its lowest close this month at $3.507. Henry Hub spot prices continue to wither at $2.74/MMBtu— extending the physical market role as a bearish weight on nea...

dan_s

Lots of noise impacting oil and gas prices, with the Paper Traders dealing with a lot of conflicting data. Trading Economics Oil WTI crude oil futures fell to around $67.5 per barrel on Thursday, after hitting an over two-month high in the previous session on fears of supply disruptions amid rising ...

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