Energy Prospectus

dan_s

I spent several hours working on my forecast/valuation model for Rubellite Energy this morning and then I sent it to Harry for him to compare to his model. He suggested a few line item changes that increased my current valuation. Rubellite ranks #6 in Harry's list of 84 energy companies based on his...

dan_s

If Trump does not enforce tariffs against Canada, the Sweet 16 stock that has the most potential for a share price snapback on the news is Ovintiv (OVV). It is now based in Denver, but a high percentage of the Company's production is in Western Canada. Ovintiv is also going to announce a significan...

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MNR pays VARIABLE quarterly distributions. They actually paid out $3.20/unit in cash during 2024. Realized natural gas prices have the most impact on distributions. Actual distributions in 2024: Q1 > $0.95 Q2 > $0.75 Q3 > $0.90 Q4 > $0.60 YR = $3.20 This one is for those of you that believe natural ...

dan_s

I added MNR to my Watch List over a month ago because I am looking for good companies to add to our High Yield Income Portfolio. > MNR is a Master Limited Partnership (MLP) < I am personally not keen on MLPs, but some of them generate strong dividend yield . > Mach Natural Resources LP is an indepen...

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At the time of this post VTLE was trading at $31.57. < Just barely over 1X operating CFPS. This is not a tiny company. It is generating over $250 million of operating cash flow per quarter. My valuation of $59.00 is only 2X annualized operating cash flow per quarter. TipRanks: "In the last 3 mo...

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and save $80 billion. A former Secretary of Education says the department can't be fixed. It is just another Federal money laundering scheme. https://www.thefp.com/p/betsy-devos-shut-down-the-department-of-education-trump-elon?utm_campaign=260347&utm_source=cross-post&r=xn3en&utm_medium=...

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50,000 employees have already accepted the package, an administration official told CNN Thursday. < My guess is that they knew their work was worthless. In most companies 10% of workers add no value. In the Federal government it is probably over 20%. While an Office of Personnel Management spokesper...

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At the time of this post REI was trading at $1.295, which is just ~30% of book value per share. First Call's price target is $3.00. Ring is profitable, free cash flow positive and year-over-year production growth will be approximately 10% in 2024 (following YOY production growth of 35.8% in 2023). O...

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CelsiusEnergy.com forecasts, which are the most accurate that I've found, show the following draws for the next three weeks: > Week ending Feb. 7: 93 Bcf draw, which is 48 Bcf lower than the 5-year average. > Week ending Feb 14: 175 Bcf draw, which is 33 Bcf higher than the 5-year average. > Week en...

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Working gas in storage was 2,397 Bcf as of Friday, January 31, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 174 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 208 Bcf less than last year at this time and 111 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,508 Bcf . At 2,397 Bcf, total working g...

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Lawmakers will introduce a bill Thursday to ban DeepSeek from U.S. government-owned devices over growing alarm the chatbot application is providing user data to the Chinese government, The Wall Street Journal reports.

dan_s

This morning SEI was trading at $27.67 I have updated my forecast valuation model for SEI, breaking out 2025 by quarter and updating my 2026 forecast. My valuation increases to $38.00 per share. First Call's price target is $39.67 TipRanks : "On January 24th, Stephen Gengaro from Stifel Nicolau...

dan_s

Just keep in mind that these are still "Story Stocks". It is impossible for me to value them until they have a clear path to steady revenues and positive operating cash flow.

dan_s

We are fortunate to have low energy prices in the U.S. and Canada.

Natural gas prices are $15.87/MMBtu in Europe and $14.50/MMBtu in Japan/Korea

This is why exports of LNG from the U.S. and eventually from the West Coast of Canada will remain high.

dan_s

Con Ed proposes massive rate hikes that could increase NYers gas, energy bills by $154 a month — thanks to Hochul’s green energy push https://nypost.com/2025/02/05/us-news/con-ed-proposes-massive-rate-hikes-that-could-send-new-yorkers-gas-electric-bills-soaring-thanks-to-hochul/?utm_campaign=iphone_...

dan_s

Nouveau Monde Graphite Inc. (NMG) is hosting our first EPG luncheon of 2025 on March 19th. Eric knows a lot more about graphene than I do, so attend the luncheon and ask him about the potential. Graphene Manufacturing Group Ltd (GMG.V) also looks interesting. Panasonic and GM have recently invested...

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At the time of this post REPX was trading for $33.47. < The current share price is probably below the PV10 Net Asset Value using just the Company's proved reserves. Current production is approximately 24,000 Boepd (~66% crude oil). First Call's price target is $52.17 and TipRanks' price target is $5...

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POET Technologies Inc. (POET) designs, develops, manufactures, and sells discrete and integrated opto-electronic solutions in Canada, the United States, Singapore, and China. The company offers integration solutions based on the POET Optical Interposer, a novel platform that allows the seamless int...

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Article continues ... Data Centers: Where The Cloud Actually Lives You’re reading this article, you’re getting texts and emails, you’re watching, uploading and downloading video. It’s all so seamless and consistent that you take it for granted, and every year, the volume of data you personally consu...

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From Energy & Capital Newsletter: Over a trillion dollars are going into American data centers in the next five years. That’s the prediction from Blackstone Inc, which itself holds over $80B worth of data center related assets, and it's not a bold one. This is one trend that can be seen a mile a...

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At the time of this post BTE.TO was trading for $3.48Cdn ($2.44US). First Call's price target is $5.40Cdn and TipRanks' Price Target based on the five most recent analysts' updates is $5.20Cdn. My Updated Valuation is $7.25Cdn < Just 3X annualized operating cash flow per share. I have updated my for...

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At the time of this post KGEI was trading at $7.45, up 140% in the last six months. Despite the strong run, it is still Harry's #1 ranked stock for Net Present Value Per Share out of the 84 companies that he follows. I expect it to be one of the top performing stocks in our Small-Cap Growth Portfoli...

dan_s

Watch this to learn why there has been a "Structural Change" in the U.S. natural gas market that is bullish for U.S. natural gas prices:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpuUC0arrUU

dan_s

Watch this podcast: https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/podcast-peak-oil-2025?utm_campaign=Weekly%20Blog%20Notification&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=345840338&utm_content=345840338&utm_source=hs_email World Oil forecast is just 200,000 bopd of U.S. oil production growth this year. Permian Basin ...

dan_s

Notes from HFI Research this morning. In the past 48 hours, we've had: > Possibility of tariffs going on Mexico and Canada only to have it delayed by 30 days. > "Strong" sanction enforcement on Iran being announced. < Why we will need Saudi Arabia to increase exports . > US/China trading t...

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WTI crude oil futures extended its recent decline toward $72 per barrel on Wednesday as concerns over a US-China trade war outweighed supply risks stemming from President Trump's intensified economic pressure on Iran. On Tuesday, Trump reinstated his "maximum pressure" campaign, aiming to ...

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Propane at $0.91/gallon ($38.22/bbl) this morning. Trading Economics: "Propane increased 0.13 USD/GAL or 17.15% since the beginning of 2025, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, Propane reached an all time hig...

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Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending January 31, 2025 U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.3 million barrels per day during the week ending January 31, 2025, which was 159 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 84.5% of their oper...

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"Even The New York Times admitted about the DNC meeting that the “Democrats appear leaderless, rudderless and divided” and “have no shared understanding of why they lost the election, never mind how they can win in the future.” “We have no coherent message,” complained Rep. Jasmine Crockett to ...

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as long as they do what they told Trump they would do to help secure our borders. It was so easy. Oil Prices Sink 3% as Trump Hits Pause on Canada Tariffs By Irina Slav - Feb 04, 2025, 8:29 AM CST Just two days after announcing sweeping sanctions of 25% on almost all Canadian imports as well as all ...

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This week I am going to carefully review the individual company forecast/valuation models for all ten of the upstream companies in our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio. I am being more conservative on the Canadian Juniors just because of the FEAR of Trump Tariffs and continuing low natural gas prices in W...

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The Opec+ alliance has stuck to its production policy amid pressure from US President Donald Trump to lower crude prices by boosting output. “The members of the JMMC [Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee] reaffirmed their commitment to the DoC (Declaration of Co-operation), which extends to the en...

dan_s

Let's give Justin some credit for doing what should have been done for years. Trump was just using tariffs to get what Canada and Mexico should have been doing for year. Both countries need to remember that they are being protected by the U.S. military, which American taxpayers pay for. The least th...

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There is HOPE for Canada: Trump said on Monday he had spoken with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and would do so again at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT). Both Canada and Mexico had announced retaliatory tariffs of their own. The tariffs on Canada and China remain poised to take effect on Tuesday. I t...

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U.S. tariffs on Mexico to be paused for a month, Trump says WASHINGTON/BRUSSELS (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump will pause new tariffs on Mexico for one month after Mexico agreed to reinforce its northern border with 10,000 National Guard members to stem the flow of illegal drugs, particula...

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Plains GP Holdings, L.P. (PAGP) is up 17.47% YTD and it recently increased its dividend to $0.38/quarter or $1.52/year. Based on the current share price of $21.33, the annualized yield is 7.12%. Based on my forecast, I expect them to raise the dividend again soon. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/plai...

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Note from HFI Research: "Over the weekend, ECMWF-EPS turned meaningfully more bullish with the models forecasting an incoming polar vortex towards the 2nd half of February." If you have not done so, I highly recommend you watch Joe's Saturday Summary here: https://www.weatherbell.com/premi...

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This is a micro-cap that has significant upside potential due to its ongoing relationship with BHP and several other large-cap mining companies. About Mundoro Capital Inc. (TSXV: MUN) (OTCQB: MUNMF) Mundoro is a publicly listed company on the TSX-V in Canada and OTCQB in the USA with a portfolio of...

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My 2025 forecasts are based on Henry Hub natural gas prices averaging $3.75/MMBtu in Q3 and $4.25/MMBtu in Q4. I am using an average HH gas price of $4.00/MMBtu for 2026, but actual prices could be much higher in Q1 2026. Here is what the NYMEX futures prices were for Q3 and Q4 when this was posted....

dan_s

All Canada has to do is work with Team Trump to actually shut down the flow of illegals and drugs crossing the northern border. It will be much cheaper and easier than a Tariff War. Canadians must understand that during Biden's term in office, over 8 million illegals came into the U.S. Many of them ...

dan_s

My advice to Team Trump: Tell all federal agencies to reduce their staff by 20%. It can be done easily, because the top 20% of workers do 80% of the work and the bottom 20% do less than 1% of the work. After Step One, entire departments can be eliminated. I worked 18 years for Hess (November, 1983...

dan_s

Watch this interview recorded last week: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pbl1ouqWM5U MY TAKE: 1. The U.S. (and Europe) must have a "Commons Sense" energy plan very soon. 2. U.S. oil production growth has slowed (only 200,000 bpd growth in 2025) and likely to go on decline soon. 3. "Dr...

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Trading Economics Oil: WTI crude oil futures rose to above $74 per barrel on Monday morning after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions. > The U.S. announced tariffs of 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and 10...

dan_s

My updated forecast model for Spartan Delta has been posted to the EPG website. My 2025 forecast is based on production of 40,000 Boepd, which I believe is conservative. I believe that WTI will move over $80/bbl this summer, which compares to HFI Research's forecast of $90/bbl WTI later this year. T...

dan_s

All Canada has to do is work with Trump to secure the border and stop the flow of drugs into the U.S. Canada's liberal government was supporting the flow of illegals into America. That should be easy to stop.

I agree 100% that the tariffs are bad, but 10% is better than 25% on oil & gas.

dan_s

Our Sweet 16 have some of the lowest completed well costs in the industry, which means wells are paying out faster. Note from Raymond James this morning: Energy Stat: Drilling & Completions Efficiencies Continue Making Gains Benefiting E&Ps to the Detriment of Service Providers The shale rev...

dan_s

As long as Canada and the U.S. don't get into a childish "Tit for Tat" tariff war the 10% tariff on Canadian oil and gas in no big deal. 1. Our Canadian companies don't sell all of their oil into the U.S. 2. The impact of the tariff will be split between the upstream companies and the refi...

dan_s

Recorded a few days ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pbl1ouqWM5U I watched a panel discussion among some very knowledgeable oil & gas industry experts two weeks ago. They agreed that U.S. oil production growth would only be 200,000 bpd in 2025 and might go on decline soon. Why? 1. The Permia...

dan_s

The Sweet 16 lost 5.43% during the week ending January 31st, primarily due to the big drop in natural gas prices and Trump Tariff noise. The Sweet 16 is up 3.60% YTD. Most of the NGas price drop last week was just due to the roll forward from the FEB25 to the MAR25 contract. The U.S. has more than e...

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For decades I have believed that the drug cartels have a lot of our elected officials "on the payroll". I understand why Mexico wants the drug money to keeping coming as it must be a large percentage of their revenue, but Canada not wanting to work with Trump to shut down drugs and illegal...

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