Energy Prospectus

For those of you invested in the gassers: The real world natural gas market will adjust: The large “gassers” (AR, CRK, EQT and RRC) will delay well completions, the Freeport LNG export facility (~2 Bcfpd) is back on-line and “low gas prices, cure low prices” because we will see coal-to-gas fuel swit...

All of my Sweet 16 stock valuation have been updated based on the following oil & gas price assumptions: 2023 oil price / ngas price Q1: $75 / $2.50 < Actual average prices for WTI and HH gas should be a bit higher. Q2: $75 / $2.25 Q3: $80 / $2.50 Q4: $90 / $2.75 Year 2024: $90 / $3.50 You can f...

Closing Prices: > Prompt-Month WTI (May 23) was up $1.30 on the day, to settle at $75.67 > Prompt-Month Henry Hub (May 23) was up $0.112 on the day, to settle at $2.216 Very bullish week for oil and (ironically) it may be the end of the winter heating season that causes natural gas prices to drift h...

I have updated my forecast/valuation models for all four of the minerals companies (BSM, KRP, STR, VNOM) Black Stone Minerals LP (BSM) is a Master Limited Partnership (MLP). It is the most heavily weighted to natural gas, but they do hedge a high percentage of their production each year. I do expect...

Bloomberg 3-31-2023 "Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is confident in crude’s upward trajectory even after banking turmoil caused the bank to tamp down its price forecasts this year, according to Jeff Currie, global head of commodities . “We would argue you should be buying the dip at this point,” Curr...

I have updated all five of the upstream company forecasts (CTRA, DVN, FANG, PDCE, PXD) and you can download them directly from the EPG website home page or you can find them under the High Yield Tab. They are all large-caps that I have followed for more than ten years. > They all have rock solid bal...

Per EIA's 914 report (first look at actual U.S. production by month) U.S. oil production > 12,417,000 bpd in October > 12,101,000 bpd in December > EIA's weekly guestimates were 12.2 to 12.3 million bpd in Q1 2023 and my WAG is that U.S. oil production was flat at close to 12.1 million bpd. As Matt ...

Think about this. If Freeport LNG had been online from June 2022 thru February 2023 exporting ~2 Bcfpd, there would be over 500 Bcf less ngas in storage and the price of HH gas would be more than triple where it is today.

All ten forecast models have been update to agree with my new oil and gas price deck. Today I will be updating the forecast/valuation models for the companies in our High Yield Income Portfolio. Each month I review all of the models for our portfolio companies before writing the newsletter. < This i...

Opening Prices > WTI is up $0.54 to $74.91/bbl, and Brent is up $0.21 to $79.48/bbl. > Natural gas is up 7.2c to $2.176/MMBtu. (As of 08:14 AM CDT) AEGIS Notes with my comments in blue Oil Oil heads for a weekly gain amid ongoing Iraqi Kurdistan supply dispute May ’23 WTI gained 54c this morning to ...