Energy Prospectus

At the time of this post VTLE was trading at $51.47. < Below book value and less than 2X 2024 operating cash flow per share. I have updated my forecast/valuation model for Vital Energy for their Q1 results and updated guidance, which looks too conservative to me since they beat their Q1 production g...

Josh Young at Bison Energy wrote an article about Vital on 2/26/2024 that concluded that VTLE had over 300% upside when compared to what Diamondback Energy has paid for Permian Basin acquisitions. I agree with Josh that Vital Energy is a screaming takeover target. It is a pure play on the Permian Ba...

Cliff; My opinion is that Vital doesn't get the coverage it deserves because it has such a small number of shares outstanding, just 36,661,000 at 3/31/2024. That's low for a company of this size, over 124,000 Boepd. Low share count = high volatility as small changes in a forecast model can have a bi...

My forecast/valuation has been posted to the EPG website. Take a look at Riley's year-end 2023 3rd party reserve report in their 10-K. It shows a PV10 Net Asset Value of $55.04/share based only on the Company's proved reserves. This year's acquisitions and drilling program should push that valuation...

Historians will look back on this insane spending on windmills as one of the dumbest things humans have ever done. Solar makes a bit more sense to me, but wind and solar at both too unreliable to be a significant percentage of any modern country's power grid. Natural gas fired power plants are clear...

At the time of this post REPX was trading at $27.17, which is just 2.44 X my 2024 operating cash flow per share forecast of $11.13. TipRanks' current CFPS forecasts are $11.81 for 2024 and $13.04 for 2025. There is nothing that I can see that justifies this stock trading at such a low multiple. < It...

Working gas in storage was 2,563 Bcf as of Friday, May 3, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 79 Bcf from the previous week. < 10 Bcf lower than 5-year average build for this week. Stocks were 444 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 640 Bcf above the five-year ...

This is why I believe that WTI will ramp up to $85/bbl in Q3. "Refinery utilization remains relatively low while exports can add another 400 kb/d with the right price differentials. We expect inventories to decline from the current 459.5 mb to below 420 mb by the second half of August." - ...

FIRST QUARTER 2024 HIGHLIGHTS Averaged 20.4 MBoe/d of total equivalent production (oil production of 14.2 MBbls/d) < Above my forecast of 20,000 Boepd / 14,000 Bopd. Generated $56 million of operating cash flow or $58 million before changes in working capital < Slightly lower than my forecast of $59...

Vital's Q1 results exceeded by forecast with higher production and higher Adjusted Operating Cash Flow. First-Quarter 2024 Highlights Execution of business plan and successful integration of acquired properties drove record production and higher-than-expected cash flows Reported 1Q-24 net loss of $6...