Energy Prospectus

dan_s

Listen to this important podcast: https://www.financialsense.com/podcast/21014/commodity-supercycle-derailed-delayed-or-unfolding-expected The "Real Energy Transition" is to electrify everything. That is going to create high demand for copper for many years to come. Electricity is not a pr...

dan_s

Read full report here: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/ Per EIA: Crude oil prices. Despite a drop in the Brent crude oil spot price to $73 per barrel (b) on September 6, we expect ongoing withdrawals from global oil inventories will push prices back above $80/b this month . > More oil will be take...

dan_s

When regional growth in natural gas production outpaces pipeline takeaway capacity additions, capacity constraints exert downward pressure on spot natural gas prices at the Waha Hub, which is near Permian Basin production. Prices at the Waha Hub have been below zero for 46% of trading days in 2024, ...

dan_s

From EIA website: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=63044 Natural gas pipeline takeaway capacity in the Permian Basin will soon increase as the Matterhorn Express Pipeline, with a capacity of 2.5 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), is expected to begin service this month , according to...

dan_s

In addition to the Warintza copper project, Solaris has a promising silver and gold exploration project. Solaris Resources Inc. (TSX: SLS)(NYSE: SLSR) latest press release providing an update on district exploration at the Celestina target area, located east of the Warintza porphyry cluster. https:...

dan_s

This hurricane will impact oil & gas production in the Gulf of Mexico and onshore in Louisiana. If it is just a Cat 1 hurricane it should not do significant damage, but as we know well in South Texas the flooding from a Cat 1 can be bad. A storm system monitored by National Hurricane Center (NH...

dan_s

I have finished my review of Viper's' update profile. I have increased my current valuation by $8 to $53. You can download my updated forecast model and profile on the EPG website home page or under the High Yield tab. TipRanks : "In the last 3 months, 6 ranked analysts set 12-month price targe...

dan_s

From our recent profile on Vital. "At June 30, 2024, the Company had $90 million drawn on its $1.35 billion senior secured credit facility and cash and cash equivalents of $56 million. Upon closing of the previously announced acquisition of the assets of Point Energy, the elected commitment on ...

dan_s

September 9, 2024 – Quito, Ecuador – Solaris Resources Inc. (TSX: SLS; NYSE: SLSR) (“Solaris” or the “Company”) is pleased to report that it has submitted an Environmental Impact Assessment (“EIA”) to the Ministry of Environment, Water and Ecological Transition (“MAATE”) for the construction of the ...

dan_s

During August three energy sector analysts updated their price targets for VNOM as follows. They all rate it a BUY. Barclays 8/18/2024: price target $52.00 Piper Sandler 8/15/2024: price target $57.00 Truist Fin 8/7/2024: price target $55.00 Diamondback's "Mega Merger" with Endeavor Energy...

dan_s

In my podcast, I point out the U.S. oil production actually declined in 1H 2024. The "Paradigm" is the opposite. Note from HFI Research on 9/9. Read the last three paragraphs carefully. The consensus appears certain that 2025 oil market balances will be in surplus. < This is a False Paradi...

dan_s

Here is the direct link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLG58lVfDls

dan_s

Watch the Saturday Summary here: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/ Conditions are now favorable for a Tropical Storm to form near the Mexican coast and move up the Texas Gulf Coast. The cool front over Houston on Sunday is likely to keep the eye of the storm at sea until it is east of Galveston, ...

dan_s

Harry's opening remarks (Week 36 Report): Oil price in weeks 35/36 The oil price over the last two weeks moved 9% lower – from $ 74.92/bbl (23rd August), via $ 73.62/bb (30th August) to $ 68.16/bbl (6th September). The oil price move surprised me. I did not see it coming. Even today I do not full un...

dan_s

Harry van Neck's (The Petroleum Economist) detailed reports are now available through EPG for $250/year. This week he highlights the companies ranked 7-12 > Ring Energy < In our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio > Whitecap > Petto Exploration > Rubillite < Being added to our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio > Ov...

dan_s

VTLE is a "Head Scratcher". I agree with Harry that the oil price drop is overdone and out of whack with the fundamentals. > U.S. and OECD Petroleum inventories are tight, below normal for this time of year. > FEAR of a China recession is ignoring the increased oil demand coming from India...

dan_s

There is a La Nina in the Pacific Ocean. It will move the cold and snowy part of winter east of the Rockies. Read this: https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2024-2025-forecast-first-model-predictions-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ The big cities around the Great Lakes draw the most nat...

dan_s

I have no idea why he resigned. I hope it is not because of medical reasons. Tim Duncan is a good guy. Talos's Q2 results beat my forecast, primarily because of more production and much higher oil production than I was expecting. Talos still has hurricane risk, so I don't recommend buying it now. If...

dan_s

At the time of this post, Celsius Energy was forecasting that the next four builds in U.S. natural gas storage will total 214 Bcf. That compares to the 5-year average build of 356 Bcf for the four week period. The 142 Bcf difference will reduce the surplus to the 5-year average from 323 Bcf on Augus...

dan_s

From Bloomberg today: Two factors are primarily driving the price of oil. On the one hand, recession worries and expectations regarding global oil consumption are tending to depress the price. On the other, concerns about geopolitical conflicts are exerting upward pressure, and have the potential to...

dan_s

TALO is on my Watch List. I have not had much time to look at it, but I will today. HOUSTON, Sept. 5, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Talos Energy Inc. ("Talos") (NYSE: TALO) today announced that its Ewing Bank 953 well ("EW 953 well") successfully discovered commercial quantities of oil an...

dan_s

Maybe this makes more sense: > Crescent Energy (CRGY) had very little analysts' coverage prior to the merger with SilverBow Resources, which was also not getting the coverage it deserved. As one of the top producers in South Texas (over 250,000 Boepd), CRGY will get more coverage. On September 5th W...

dan_s

Go see the Reagan movie for a reminder of what happen in America if we elect a strong leader. From one of our members: "It was so good to be reminded of what one cowboy/crusader did for America by standing true to God, his country and himself. It can be done again, but it's so much easier not t...

dan_s

Notes below are from HFI Research Unemployment was released this morning. I was interested in it purely because the numbers have been so seemingly manipulated. Interestingly, Brian Wesbury opined sort of tongue and cheek with the way futures were acting this morning, it seems like someone got the n...

dan_s

Comments from HFI Research on Sept 6 I've been through some turbulent times in my years of covering the oil markets, but the recent bout of bearishness is up there in terms of magnitude. We've had some interesting events unfold this week, and despite all of these mildly positive developments, WTI ca...

dan_s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_ydV7PVPzc

Harris has no plan.

dan_s

Today I spend several hours looking at BSM. I have posted my updated forecast/valuation model and updated profile to the EPG website. Black Stone Minerals, LP (BSM) is one of the four minerals companies in our High Yield Income Portfolio. The other three are KRP, STR and VNOM. They are all rock soli...

dan_s

Update on Secret Service investigation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-5YQPVLSmY

2nd half is how grossly overpriced the Secret Service budget is.

dan_s

Today Wells Fargo and KeyBanc have adjusted their price targets for CRGY to $21.00 and $16.00. < TipRanks' consensus price target is $17.25 I have updated my forecast model for the relatively small bolt-on acquisition announced yesterday. My valuation increases by $0.25 to $24.50/share. My valuation...

dan_s

Details here: https://crescentenergyco.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CRGY-Complementary-Central-Eagle-Ford-Bolt-On-9.4.24.pdf

Accretive: Adding 4,000 Boepd of production in Q4 2024 (85% oil)

dan_s

Big 3 (crude oil, gasoline, distillates) inventories are ALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending August 30, 2024 U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day during the week ending August 30, 2024, which was 36 thousand bar...

dan_s

This is bullish. My WAG was a build of 29 Bcf for the week ending August 30. Working gas in storage was 3,347 Bcf as of Friday, August 30, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 13 Bcf from the previous week. < The 5-year average build for the last week of August is 63 B...

dan_s

Yesterday Crescent Energy Company (NYSE: CRGY) announced the signing of a definitive agreement to acquire assets from a private Eagle Ford operator for total cash consideration of $168 million, subject to customary purchase price adjustments. > The acquisition is directly offset Crescent’s existing ...

dan_s

I just got a call from one of our members based in New York. He told me that OPEC+ has confirmed a two month delay in their 180,000 bpd increase in export quotas that was set to begin in October. LONDON (Reuters) -Oil firmed on Thursday, edging up from multi-month lows, due to a possible delay to o...

dan_s

A Cautionary Energy Tale That Cannot Be Ignored Keith Kohl | Sep 05, 2024 Good intentions should never excuse poor energy policy. And nowhere else has this more true than within Europe, where aggressive energy policies have become national disasters . If you’re looking for a clearcut example of wha...

dan_s

Today I updated the profile and forecast model for Surge Energy (SGY and ZPTAF). Surge was in our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio until recently when I decided to move it to our High Yield Income Portfolio. After Surge's production grew by 20.5% in 2022 and another 14.9% in 2023, the Company decided to f...

dan_s

I have updated the profile and forecast/valuation model for ROK Resources (ROK.V) and they have been posted to the EPG website. You can download them directly from the EPG home page or you can find them under the Small-Caps tab. ROK Resources is a Canadian Junior upstream company in our Small-Cap Gr...

dan_s

MY TAKE: 1. OPEC+'s increase of 180,000 bpd is a rounding error in a world that will soon be consuming 105,000,000 bpd. 2. I do believe that there are "Forces" that can control oil prices for short periods of time, but the global oil market is tight, and we have Iranian proxies blowing up ...

dan_s

We will be sending out Harry's updates to all paid subscribers via email. You will be getting at least two updates per month. Harry's reports will not be housed on the EPG website for direct access, but if you misplace one, Sabrina can send it to you. You will be able to ask Harry (the "Petrole...

dan_s

I will be stunned if Saudi Arabia lets the oil price dip to $60/bbl. Keep in mind that OPEC+ controls all of the spare oil supply capacity.

dan_s

Seating is limited to 40, so you must register for this luncheon if you wish to attend. Solaris Resources (SLSR) is hosting the luncheon, which will be held at The Ballroom at Tanglewood, 5430 Westheimer Road, Houston Notes below are from Brisco Capital, which brought us Hemisphere Energy (HMENF) a...

dan_s

Source: EIA "North America’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity is on track to more than double between 2024 and 2028, from 11.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023 to 24.4 Bcf/d in 2028, if projects currently under construction begin operations as planned. During this time, we ...

dan_s

HFI Research: "For the week ending August 30, we have a crude draw of 6.08 million bbls. Looking at our US commercial crude storage projection, we will see crude storage match the 5-year low this week." IN MY OPINION, the oil traders are over-reacting to OPEC+ decision to increase quotas b...

dan_s

To subscribe to this additional service, go here: https://energyprospectus.com/product/1-year-subscription-for-harry-van-neck-reports/

Harry's weekly reports have been extremely helpful to me.

dan_s

Now that most educated people realize that wind and solar aren't going to meet "Future World's" energy demand, natural gas & nuclear are the only two viable solutions. We are one normal winter away from much higher natural gas prices. Saudi Arabia will defend the oil price, and they wa...

dan_s

Note from Wells Fargo Equity Research received today: OKE is buying GIP's controlling stake in ENLC and 100% of Medallion Midstream. We view the transaction as a positive for both OKE & ENLC. We're raising our PT for OKE to $100/ share and remain Overweight. We're downgrading ENLC to EW on the ...

dan_s

Thirteen days ago now, the oil tanker MV Sounion was attacked by the Houthis. A French Aspides ship came to the rescue whilst destroying an approaching surface drone. They put out the initial fires and evacuated the crew to Djibouti. With the ship now abandoned at anchor, the Houthis went back two d...

dan_s

Right now there are two US nuclear-powered aircraft carriers – the Lincoln and the Roosevelt – on station in the Gulf of Oman in company with eight US destroyers, most likely two nuclear attack submarines not far away and many, many aircraft aboard. In the Eastern Mediterranean, America has a single...

dan_s

This is also good news: Will Hickey and Guy Oliphint, Chief Financial Officer, are scheduled to present at the Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference in New York City, New York on September 3, 2024 at 12:40 p.m. Eastern Time. The live webcast and presentation materials used at the conference will be a...

dan_s

Even if WTI were to average $70/bbl in 2025, PR should generate over $1.3 billion of free cash flow next year. The $0.60 based dividends would add up to ~$0.5 billion. Dividend coverage is very good, and I like the more aggressive stock buyback. PR is starting to get the love from the Wall Street Ga...

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