Energy Prospectus

dan_s

LNG powered cruise ships Watch the video at the link below. Let’s start the week out by viewing a time lapse video on how a cruise ship is built! I think you will find it to be quite interesting- modules, modules, and more modules! The ship being built is the LNG Powered AIDAnova Cruise Ship. The ve...

dan_s

Whitecap might be a better fit for our High Yield Income Portfolio. I will decide late in May.

dan_s

I have finished updating all of the forecast/valuation models for the minerals companies (BSM, KRP, STR, VNOM) and all of the Canadian upstream companies (HME.V, IPO.TO, PEY.TO, SGY.TO) on the EPG website. The 4 midstream companies don't need to be updated since they are not directly impacted by com...

dan_s

I'm sorry for missing this press release while I was on vacation on April 15th. STR's Q1 financial results should beat the current First Call EPS estimate of $0.10. Adjusted operating cash flow (the key stat for me), should also be quite good. DENVER, April 15, 2025--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sitio Royaltie...

dan_s

During the week ending April 25 the Sweet 16 gained 0.86%, but it is still down 13.62% YTD. The portfolio was up 0.93% YTD on March 31st. During the week ending April 25 the S&P 500 Index gained 4.12%, it is still down 6.06% YTD. The index was down 4.59% on March 31st, so most IRA accounts are a...

dan_s

Remember that all of the companies in our three model portfolios survived the Pandemic when oil & gas prices were much lower than they are today. As long as an upstream company generates positive operating cash flow, it can hunker down and survive a period of low commodity prices.

dan_s

ROK is generating a lot of free cash flow in 1H 2025 because this year's drilling program won't start until after Spring Break Up. The balance sheet is in good shape and the Company has no near-term debt issues. Thanks to their oil hedges (below) they should generate revenues net of royalties over $...

dan_s

SEI will announce Q1 results on Monday, April 28 after the markets close. SEI closed at $20.73 on April 25. First Call's price target is $45.67, which compares to my updated valuation of $42.00. TipRanks on 4/22/2025: "Northland analyst Bobby Brooks initiates coverage on Solaris Energy Infrastr...

dan_s

"You are waiting for too much: Christmas, Friday, next year, when you have money, when love arrives, when everything is perfect... Listen, perfection does not exist. A human being cannot attain it because we are simply not made to be fulfilled here. Here, we are given an opportunity to learn. S...

dan_s

Veren will remain in the Sweet 16 until it merges into Whitecap Resources (WCP.TO), which is expected to close May 12. VRN.TO closed at $8.49Cdn on April 25. WCP.TO closed at $8.19 on April 25. < WCP's annualized dividend yield is 8.9% My updated current valuation for VRN is $12.00Cdn Three highly r...

dan_s

Keep in mind that the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020-2023 Covid Pandemic were much worse than this political Tariff War. MY TAKE is that it will end on July 4th, 2025 and before that date the Republicans will pass the "One Big Beautiful Income Tax Reduction Bill". The "Tariff War&...

dan_s

"The Dallas Fed Survey estimates higher oil prices than the EIA for oil in 2025, $68 per barrel , but it is still down from earlier this year. While oil prices go down, costs continue to increase. According to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey, both finding and development costs and lease operating...

dan_s

Crescent Energy Completes Sale of Non-Operated Permian Basin Assets in Texas 09:23 AM EDT, 04/22/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Crescent Energy (CRGY) said Tuesday that it has completed the sale of its non-operated Permian Basin assets in Reeves County, Texas, to an unidentified private buyer for $83 millio...

dan_s

I have finished updating my forecast/valuation model for EQT for Q1 2025 results and their updated guidance. At the time of this post EQT was trading for $50.12. My updated current valuation is $65.00 . EQT is a large-cap "Gasser" and it is the most heavily weighted to natural gas (~94% of...

dan_s

I was able to get two new analysts' reports on InPlay that are based on the Post-Consolidation share count of 27.939 million shares. Send me an email and I will send them to you: dmsteffens@comcast.net At the time of this post IPO.TO was trading at $7.46Cdn and First Call's price target is $13.73Cdn...

dan_s

Nothing is wrong. ROK.V is trading on the venture exchange. Trading volume for ROKRF is very low.

dan_s

https://biggeekdad.com/2015/03/shut-up-and-dance/

dan_s

Working gas in storage was 1,934 Bcf as of Friday, April 18, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 88 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 478 Bcf less than last year at this time and 44 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,978 Bcf . At 1,934 Bcf, total working gas i...

dan_s

I spent two hours this morning going through Matador's Q1 results and presentation slides. I don't see anything that justifies MTDR trading at less than 2.5 X operating cash flow per share. > Matador is an Aggressive Growth company, that now generates a lot of free cash flow. > YOY production growth...

dan_s

The updated profile for Viper Energy has been posted to the EPG website. EPG members can download it directly from the home page.

dan_s

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for Viper based on their April 16th press release and for my updated oil & gas prices. We will be publishing an updated profile on the company this afternoon. Viper Energy, Inc. (VNOM) is one of my Top Picks in our High Yield Income Portfolio. On April ...

dan_s

I have been following Matador for over ten years. The CEO likes to "Under-Promise and Over-Deliver" on production guidance. I use the high end of their guidance in my forecast, and they still beat it almost every quarter.

This one is a "Drill Baby Drill" company.

dan_s

What I cannot understand is why the citizens of California keep voting for Democrats.

dan_s

I do expect natural gas prices in Western Canada to move higher when the big LNG export facility on Canada's west coast opens up in June. It has a design capacity of 1.8 Bcf per day. It will take ~12 months to ramp up to capacity, but access to the Asian LNG market is bullish for the Canadian gasser...

dan_s

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending April 18, 2025 U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.9 million barrels per day during the week ending April 18, 2025, which was 326 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 88.1% of their operable...

dan_s

My valuation of EQT will be going up, but I need to spend some time with their 10Q filing with the SEC before I can finish updating the forecast/valuation model.

dan_s

Kolibri Global Energy (KGEI) has confirmed that they will host our Houston luncheon on May 21st which will be at The Ballroom at Tanglewood. Wolf Regener, Kolibri's CEO should have initial production rates on the four new horizontal development wells to share with us. Seating is limited, so registe...

dan_s

Key stat: EQT's Q1 production of 6,341,644 mcfepd beat my forecast of 6,150,000 mcfepd AND (like RRC) their realized natural gas prices, net of differential and cash settlement on their hedges was $3.65/mcf, which was $0.35/mcf higher than my forecast. Press Release: First Quarter 2025 and Recent H...

dan_s

Range Resources has some good stuff about the U.S. natural gas and NGL markets in their April 22 slide deck starting at slide 13 here:
https://ir.rangeresources.com/news-and-events/company-presentations

dan_s

Slides 8 - 11 are very bullish. Range's aggressive stock buybacks are key to my valuation. Combined with their hedging program, lowers the risk. Range has a solid balance sheet and decades of high-quality running room. I would like to see them raise the dividends, which I believe will happen if U.S....

dan_s

Energy Secretary Chris Wright railed against clean energy tax credits Tuesday, defending the Trump administration’s efforts to increase manufacturing powered by coal, natural gas and oil. His criticism of financial incentives for citizens’ use of renewable energy came during a morning appearance on ...

dan_s

Other good news in the press release: "During the quarter, Range drilled ~250,000 lateral feet across 18 wells, while turning to sales ~132,000 lateral feet across 10 wells. The added inventory of drilled but not completed laterals is in line with Range’s plans to exit 2025 with ~400,000 latera...

dan_s

Per RRC Press Release: Average NYMEX prices Natural Gas: $3.66/MMBtu < All of my Q1 forecasts are based on $3.50/MMBtu . WTI oil: $71.40/bbl < All of my Q1 forecasts are based on $70.00/bbl . NGLs: $26.74 < Beat my forecast of $26.50/bbl . What this means is that all of the Sweet 16 should beat my ...

dan_s

Range Resources is one of the four large-cap "Gassers" in our Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio. First Quarter 2025 Highlights – Cash flow from operating activities of $330 million Cash flow from operations, before working capital changes, of $397 million < Beat my forecast of $328.7 million Adju...

dan_s

NOG closed today at $23.56. Because they have so much of their 2025 production hedged, my updated valuation only declined by $1 to $56 . < My valuation is just 3.75 X annualized operating cash flow per share. That is a very conservative multiple for a company that has free cash flow locked in for 20...

dan_s

I just posted our updated profile and my updated forecast/valuation model for Hemisphere Energy to the EPG website.

It is in our High Yield Income Portfolio, and it also has significant share price appreciation potential.

dan_s

From HFI Research: Why we went long on natural gas today May Henry Hub contracts dipped below $3/MMBtu today causing some in the trading community to scratch their heads. Given the weakness of oil prices and the expected increase in LNG demand, why are natural gas prices so weak? The JAN26 NYMEX con...

dan_s

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for MTDR for my updated oil & gas price deck. MTDR was trading at $41.58 at the time of this post. < Less than 2.5 X operating CFPS. I am lowering my current valuation by $5 to $85 share. ~40% of Matador's 2025 oil production is hedged with collars that...

dan_s

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for RRC based on my updated oil & gas price deck. At the time of this post RRC was trading for $33.31 I have lowered my current valuation of RRC by $3 to $45 per share. I do think there is a good chance that RRC reports better Q1 results than my forecas...

dan_s

This week I am updating all of the Sweet 16 forecast/valuation models based on my updated oil & gas price deck, which I posted earlier under the View from Houston tab. I have lowered my valuation of EQT by $2.00 to $62.00. TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 18 ranked analysts set 12-month pri...

dan_s

LNG Canada is expected to on-line within three months. Design capacity is 1.8 Bcf per day, but it will take a year to ramp up to that. As we discussed on our April 21st webinar, the Western Canada natural gas market is re-balancing and gas prices in Canada should drift up to $3.00Cdn/mcf by year-end...

dan_s

Notes below are from Trading Economics with my comments in blue . WTI Oil Price WTI crude oil futures rose above $63 per barrel on Tuesday, likely in a technical rebound after falling over 2% in the previous session. > However, the outlook remains bearish as progress in US-Iran talks raises the poss...

dan_s

I have confirmed that InPlay's Post-Consolidation dividends will be 9 cents $Canadian per month, which is 1.5 cents X 6.

$1.08Cdn per year is a dividend yield of 14.6% per year based on this morning's share price of $7.38Cdn.

dan_s

The Republicans need to pass the Income Tax package and announce some successful trade deals. EQT and RRC should be reporting Q1 results tomorrow after the markets close. Tomorrow I will be updating my forecast models for all of the companies that should be reporting Q1 results in April: EQT, RRC, M...

dan_s

I highly recommend that all of you watch the replay of today's webinar that was hosted by Rubellite Energy. Sue Riddell Rose, Rubellite's founder and CEO is very impressive. > This Company has SIGNIFICANT RUNNING ROOM, with 316 low-risk development drilling locations in areas where their multi-late...

dan_s

This morning PEY.TO was trading for $17.71Cdn. My current valuation is $24.00 Cdn per share, which translates to approximately $16.80US for PEYUF . My updated forecast/valuation model and profile on the company have been posted to the EPG website. Peyto Exploration & Development Corp. (PEY.TO an...

dan_s

During the short trading week that ended April 10 the Sweet 16 gained 4.05%, but it is still down 14.18% YTD. During the same week the S&P 500 Index lost 1.37% and it is now down 10.18% YTD. As a group, the Sweet 16 is trading at an 89% discount to my current valuation. They will all be reportin...

dan_s

HME.V closed at $1.74Cdn on April 17. My updated valuation is $3.85Cdn based on their solid Q4 results and unchanged guidance for 2025. Positive results from the Marsden Polymer Flood pilot project should significantly increase my valuation. First Call's price target is $2.72Cdn, which has not been ...

dan_s

Fossil Fuel demand will not be going down this decade. LNG exports will be the primary driver of increasing demand for natural gas. Global demand for coal will keep going up. Soaring U.S. Power Demand Will Need All Energy Sources By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 17, 2025, 6:00 PM CDT U.S. electricity de...

dan_s

I am expecting all of the Sweet 16 companies to report Q1 2025 results that beat my forecasts because WTI oil prices and HH natural gas prices during Q1 exceeded my forecasts. FANG regularly exceeds their production guidance, which they have done once again. Don't believe all of the gloom-and-doom ...

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