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by dan_s
Sun May 05, 2024 3:55 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: SM Energy (SM) Valuation Update - May 5
Replies: 0
Views: 10

SM Energy (SM) Valuation Update - May 5

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for SM Energy. They reported solid Q1 results and raised their 2024 production guidance. The balance sheet is in good shape and they continue to report strong well results in the Permian Basin and South Texas. Based on my forecast, free cash flow should be ...
by dan_s
Sun May 05, 2024 1:50 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) Valuation Update - May 5
Replies: 0
Views: 22

Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) Valuation Update - May 5

NOG is the only "Non-Op" company in the Sweet 16, which just means that they don't operate any of their upstream assets. NOG was in a Delaware Basin joint venture with Earthstone Energy, which recently merged with Permian Resources (PR). PR is an aggressive growth company, so I believe tha...
by dan_s
Sun May 05, 2024 1:15 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: SilverBow Resources (SBOW) Valuation Update - May 4
Replies: 3
Views: 98

Re: SilverBow Resources (SBOW) Valuation Update - May 4

IMO it is highly unlikely that Kimmerridge will be able to take control of SilverBow, but even if they do it does not change the fact that SilverBow is a very profitable company that has a lot of high-quality "Running Room".
These situations just need to play out.
by dan_s
Sun May 05, 2024 1:11 pm
Forum: Other topics of interest
Topic: Climate Change Wackos keep Africans poor
Replies: 0
Views: 22

Climate Change Wackos keep Africans poor

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/how-climate-change-narrative-preventing-africa-modernizing-and-gaining-prosperity If a lie is repeated enough times, most people will believe it. Example: Several years ago, the Climate Change Wackos told us that Texas was going into a multi-decade "Perma-...
by dan_s
Sun May 05, 2024 11:06 am
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) Q1 Results - May 5
Replies: 0
Views: 19

Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) Q1 Results - May 5

FIRST QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS > Record quarterly production of 119,436 Boe per day (59% oil), increases of 4% from the fourth quarter of 2023 and 37% from the first quarter of 2023 < beat my forecast by 9,436 Boepd. > GAAP net income of $11.6 million, Adjusted Net Income of $130.5 million and Adjusted EB...
by dan_s
Sun May 05, 2024 9:37 am
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: EOG Resources (EOG) Valuation Update - May 5
Replies: 0
Views: 26

EOG Resources (EOG) Valuation Update - May 5

EOG closed at $130.05 on May 3 I have increased my valuation by $5 to $151 per share based on Q1 results that beat my forecast and the Company's updated valuation. EOG is the largest company in the Sweet 16. Despite its size, it is easy for me to forecast future results because the Company provides ...
by dan_s
Sun May 05, 2024 8:50 am
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: EOG Resources (EOG) Q1 Results - May 5
Replies: 0
Views: 21

EOG Resources (EOG) Q1 Results - May 5

EOG Resources Q1 results beat my forecast. First Quarter Highlights - Earned adjusted net income of $1.6 billion, or $2.82 per share > Adjusted operating cash flow of $2,928 million compares to my forecasted of $2,712 million - Generated $1.2 billion of free cash flow - Declared regular quarterly di...
by dan_s
Sun May 05, 2024 8:05 am
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Sweet 16 Update - May 4
Replies: 1
Views: 91

Re: Sweet 16 Update - May 4

On Saturday I finished reviewing the updated profiles for APA Corp. (APA) and Devon Energy (DVN). > You can view them directly from the EPG website. > They will be emailed to all EPG members on Monday. Today I will be updating the forecast/valuation models for EOG, NOG and SM The updated profile for...
by dan_s
Sat May 04, 2024 5:12 pm
Forum: Other topics of interest
Topic: Warren Buffett considering a Canadian opportunity
Replies: 1
Views: 47

Re: Warren Buffett considering a Canadian opportunity

Answer: High

All for our Canadian companies are going to get nice revenue boosts from the shrinking oil price differentials thanks to the TMX pipeline completion.

BTE closed on Friday at a 95% discount to my current valuation. Warren probably will go after a much larger company.
by dan_s
Sat May 04, 2024 3:15 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Devon Energy (DVN) Valuation Update - May 4
Replies: 0
Views: 43

Devon Energy (DVN) Valuation Update - May 4

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for Devon Energy, one of the large-caps in our Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio. Devon's 2024 capital program is focused on increasing oil production and holding overall production relatively flat. Q1 2024 production exceeded the Company's guidance, so I'm now for...