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by dan_s
Fri Apr 26, 2024 11:17 am
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: Dan will be out of the office April 27 to May 3
Replies: 0
Views: 31

Dan will be out of the office April 27 to May 3

Susan and I are flying to Florida today to go on a cruise that she won last year on a Celebrity cruise ship. This "Free" cruise will cost us about $2,500, but it is a ship (APEX), which we've wanted to go on for years. I will have limited internet access on the ship, so I will check the ma...
by dan_s
Fri Apr 26, 2024 9:18 am
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Apr 25
Replies: 0
Views: 46

EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Apr 25

Working gas in storage was 2,425 Bcf as of Friday, April 19, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 92 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 439 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 655 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,770 Bcf. At 2,425 Bcf, total working gas...
by dan_s
Thu Apr 25, 2024 3:30 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: EQT Corp. (EQT) Valuation Update - Apr 25
Replies: 2
Views: 100

Re: EQT Corp. (EQT) Valuation Update - Apr 25

They are looking at the NYMEX strip prices here: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.quotes.html#venue=globex After November the strip jumps over $3.50 and all of those companies are extremely profitable at that gas price. Just remember that the NYMEX strip is not a forec...
by dan_s
Thu Apr 25, 2024 10:58 am
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: EQT Corp. (EQT) Valuation Update - Apr 25
Replies: 2
Views: 100

EQT Corp. (EQT) Valuation Update - Apr 25

At the time of this post EQT was trading for $39.76. TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 18 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for EQT. The average price target among the analysts is $43.41. The 18 price targets range from $34 to $60 per share." As previously posted, EQT's Q1 results ...
by dan_s
Thu Apr 25, 2024 8:55 am
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: EQT Corp. (EQT) Q1 Results - Apr 25
Replies: 1
Views: 57

Re: EQT Corp. (EQT) Q1 Results - Apr 25

2024 Outlook The Company updated its expectation of 2024 total sales volume to 2,100 – 2,200 Bcfe, which assumes 1 Bcf/d of operated production curtailments through May and embeds future curtailment optionality dependent on market conditions. < Midpoint is 100 Bcfe below previous guidance . The Com...
by dan_s
Thu Apr 25, 2024 8:51 am
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: EQT Corp. (EQT) Q1 Results - Apr 25
Replies: 1
Views: 57

EQT Corp. (EQT) Q1 Results - Apr 25

First Quarter 2024 and Recent Highlights: > Adjusted Net Income of $365 million beat my forecast of $153 million. < due to much higher realized ngas prices than my forecast and lower LOE. Net differential was only -$0.17/mcf compared to my forecast of -$0.50/mcf. Increasing their realized gas price:...
by dan_s
Wed Apr 24, 2024 8:27 pm
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: Divergence - Nat gas vs. producers
Replies: 3
Views: 143

Re: Divergence - Nat gas vs. producers

We have lots of ngas fired power plants that will be running 24/7 when summer heat arrives, which starts next week. This is the same across the Southeast quarter of the country.
by dan_s
Wed Apr 24, 2024 3:40 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Antero Resources (AR) Valuation Update - Feb 2
Replies: 2
Views: 499

Re: Antero Resources (AR) Valuation Update - Feb 2

The BIG gassers will survive and rise again. The U.S. natural gas market is BIG and VERY IMPORTANT.
by dan_s
Wed Apr 24, 2024 3:37 pm
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: Divergence - Nat gas vs. producers
Replies: 3
Views: 143

Re: Divergence - Nat gas vs. producers

Another thing to keep in mind is that demand for U.S. natural gas, including exports is approximately 105 Bcf per day over the course of a year. The gas price is down today because the front month contract MAY24 expires this week. JUN24, which will be the front month contract next week, closed at $1...
by dan_s
Wed Apr 24, 2024 3:01 pm
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report - Apr 24
Replies: 2
Views: 103

Re: EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report - Apr 24

Interesting comments from HFI Research EIA oil storage report was fairly bullish today with the crude draw of 6.4 million bbls outpacing our forecast of -4.33 million bbls. More importantly in these weekly reports, we watch just how accurate we are at estimating US crude production. And so far, thin...