Energy Prospectus

dan_s

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for KGEI, which is now based on the midpoint of their fresh production guidance of just 4,600 Boepd. If they only complete three new horizontal development wells this year, my valuation declines by $0.50 to $7.50 per share. First Call's price target is $8.0...

dan_s

By March 31, 2026, Europe’s gas reserves had fallen to their lowest seasonal point since 2022, with only about 27.67% of storage capacity remaining. This level was significantly lower than the five-year average. Nevertheless, despite reaching this historic low, Europe managed to get through the wint...

dan_s

At the time of this post WTI was trading at $104.03 with heavy trading volume continuing; a classic short covering rally. Trading Economics: WTI crude futures climbed as much as 9.3% to above $105 per barrel on Monday morning, recouping losses from last week after President Donald Trump announced a ...

dan_s

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html

Oil Price Forecast by month: https://longforecast.com/oil-price-today-forecast-2017-2018-2019-2020-2021-brent-wti#1

dan_s

U.S. Central Command announced that it will blockade all Iranian ports beginning Monday at 10 a.m. EDT, or 5:30 p.m. in Iran. CENTCOM said the blockade will be “enforced impartially against vessels of all nations.” It said it would still allow ships traveling between non-Iranian ports to transit the...

dan_s

All of the Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio individual forecast/valuation models have now been updated based on these oil and gas prices. WTI Oil Q1 2026: $68/bbl, Q2 2026: $95/bbl, Q3 2026: $85/bbl, Q4 2026: $76/bbl, and $75/bbl for the year 2027. < At the time of this post WTI (MAY26) was trading at $104...

dan_s

https://longforecast.com/oil-price-today-forecast-2017-2018-2019-2020-2021-brent-wti#1 This is an AI generated oil price forecast that is updated every 15 minutes. My advice is stay long on companies that hold a lot of valuable leasehold and keep the gas tanks full. BTW fuel hoarding will significan...

dan_s

Someone sent this to me. I do not know him, but it is worth taking the time to read. ----------------------------------------------------- The Iranian delegation did not understand why they were meeting with JD Vance. They thought they were negotiating a ceasefire. They were not. They were negotiati...

dan_s

At the time of this post WTI is up $8/bbl to $104.55/bbl. < This is the MAY26 NYMEX contract. JUN26 is also up to more than $96/bbl. My forecast of $95/bbl in Q2 now looks too conservative. You may want to keep your cars' gas tanks full. If the war extends into Mid-May, we could see WTI over $150/bb...

dan_s

Two empty tankers bound for the Strait of Hormuz turned around after news broke Sunday that talks between the United States and Iran concluded without a longer-term peace deal, according to ship tracking firm Vortexa. One of the two tankers, linked to Pakistan, has since doubled back and was waiting...

dan_s

DENVER, April 9, 2026 /CNW/ - Ovintiv Inc. (NYSE: OVV) (TSX: OVV) ("Ovintiv" or the "Company") today closed the previously announced all cash sale of its Anadarko assets, located in Oklahoma, for $3.0 billion. After customary closing adjustments, proceeds from the sale are expect...

dan_s

This will get a strong reaction from the oil traders on Monday morning. President Donald Trump said Sunday that the United States will begin a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of high-stakes peace talks with Iran. Trump said the U.S. Navy would block “any and all Ships ...

dan_s

Month by month forecasts at this website. It is an AI generated forecast. https://longforecast.com/oil-price-today-forecast-2017-2018-2019-2020-2021-brent-wti#1 WTI oil price forecast for April 2026. In the beginning price at 101.61 dollars. High 117.63, low 84.06. The averaged price 101.30. At the ...

dan_s

What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) price be by the end of April 2026? https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/prediction/event/what-price-will-wti-hit-in-april-2026/ Now that we know there is no near-term end to the war, my forecast that WTI will average $95/bbl in Q2 looks too conservative. At the link above,...

dan_s

From BBC: The US and Iran are offering different reasons for the failure of the peace talks. According to Iranian state media, "unreasonable demands" from the US frustrated talks to end the war. "Despite various initiatives from the Iranian delegation, the unreasonable demands of the ...

dan_s

Vance says no agreement reached after marathon US-Iran talks in Pakistan The vice president says after 21 hours of talks the main sticking point was Iran’s refusal to abandon its nuclear program. Here's the latest No agreement: US Vice President JD Vance says no agreement was reached with Iran durin...

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US intelligence indicates that China is preparing to deliver new air defense systems to Iran within the next few weeks, according to three people familiar with recent intelligence assessments. It would be a provocative move considering Beijing said it helped broker the fragile ceasefire agreement th...

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From NBC: PEACE TALKS: Vice President JD Vance is in Islamabad for peace talks with Iran, saying he thought the discussions were “going to be positive.” Tehran has taken a hard-line public stance ahead of the negotiations, saying it remains “distrustful” of the U.S. HORMUZ AT A STANDSTILL: President...

dan_s

I needed to finish my federal tax return on Saturday morning, so I am just getting started on updating the forecast/valuation models for the Sweet 16. I did see that First Call's price targets have moved over the valuations in my March newsletter for 9 of the Sweet 16 > AR, DVN, FANG, EQT, MGY, PR, ...

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I spent yesterday afternoon updating my forecast/valuation model and reviewing the updated profile for InPlay Oil. The profile and updated forecast model for InPlay Oil have been posted to the EPG website. The profile is set to go to all EPG members via email this morning. InPlay is in our High Yiel...

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From CBS News The U.S. has not agreed to release any Iranian frozen assets, a senior U.S. official told CBS News, rebutting previous media reports. Vice President JD Vance held a bilateral meeting with Pakistani Prime Minster Shehbaz Sharif, but negotiations have not started yet and no agreements h...

dan_s

From NBC news. Note that there is no mention of the more than 40,000 Iranian protestors that Iran has killed. What to know (per NBC) PEACE TALKS: Vice President JD Vance has arrived in Islamabad for peace talks with Iran, saying he thought the discussions were “going to be positive.” Tehran has take...

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An Iranian negotiating delegation led by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqher Ghalibaf arrived in Islamabad Friday ahead of Saturday’s peace talks with the United States, which Ghalibaf demanded accept Iran’s “preconditions” before talks could begin. Speaking from Islamabad, Ghalibaf claimed Iran had ...

dan_s

Here's the latest High-stakes talks: Iranian officials have arrived in Pakistan for Saturday’s closely watched negotiations as the US. President Donald Trump has warned that he’ll renew and intensify US strikes if a peace deal can’t be reached, and Pakistan’s prime minister described this weekend as...

dan_s

Markets reacted to the prospect of Hormuz reopening. Bank of America thinks the reaction missed the point. "Boats will move, but oil fields stay shut-in, but oil will stay shut-in." Bank of America analysts said in a note. --------------------------- Look at it this way: Even if all the oi...

dan_s

Here's the latest Tenuous truce: With US-Iran negotiations expected to take place Saturday in Pakistan, continued fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon has threatened to derail a two-week ceasefire. Trump’s warning: If a peace deal is not reached this weekend , the US is prep...

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CAIRO, April 9 (Reuters) - Attacks on Saudi energy facilities have cut the kingdom's oil production capacity by around 600,000 barrels per day and throughput on its East-West Pipeline by about 700,000 bpd, Saudi state news agency SPA reported on Thursday, citing an official source at the Ministry of...

dan_s

US Natural Gas Prices: EIA is now forecasting that HH natural gas prices will average $3.67/MMBtu in 2026. < For modeling purposes, I am using $4.75/MMBtu in Q1 2026, $2.75 in Q2, $3.10 in Q3, 4.00 in Q4 (average of $3.65 for 2026) and $4.00 for 2027 . NYMEX strip prices for HH natural gas: https://...

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Notes below are from the EIA's most recent Short Term Energy Outlook that was released April 7th. Here is the link to the full report: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf My comments are in blue . Global oil production. Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continue to be limited ca...

dan_s

My updated forecast for 2026, which lines up with ROK's guidance based on WTI averaging just $80US/bbl this year, has been posted to the EPG website. JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are now forecasting that WTI could average over $100/bbl in 2026, if Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz in May. Iran...

dan_s

I am glad that ROK's sale failed to close. The company is now in good financial shape, and it holds a lot of "Running Room" in Southeast Saskatchewan light oil plays. ----------------------- April 9th Press Release: https://feeds.issuerdirect.com/news-release.html?newsid=7976915337758394&a...

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I expect all of the Sweet 16 to report Q1 results that beat my forecasts because, as Harry points out, natural gas and oil prices during the quarter were above my forecasts. I always try to be "conservative" in my models. Today, I am trying to figure out what oil and gas prices will be fo...

dan_s

WTI trading at $98.63/bbl when this was posted. Trading Economics: Oil prices swung between gains and losses on Friday, with WTI crude futures trading near $98 per barrel, though the benchmark remained on track for its largest weekly decline in 9 months. < Words like this are used to try and keep a ...

dan_s

From BBC this morning: JD Vance says he is "looking forward to negotiations" with Iran, which are due to take place in Pakistan over the weekend Boarding Air Force Two, the US vice president says he will work with Iran if they act in "good faith" - but warns if they "try to ...

dan_s

From HFI Research with my thoughts in blue . We have three high conviction views on the oil market today. These are: If the Strait of Hormuz does not return to normal, oil demand destruction via materially higher prices will rebalance the market. < If the Strait remains virtually closed (just a few ...

dan_s

At the time of this post the DEC26 futures contract for HH natural gas was trading at $4.29/MMBtu. See for yourself at this link: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.quotes.html -------------------------------- While the war in Iran has oil markets on edge, a natural gas...

dan_s

Extreme oil price volatility today as oil traders react to each bit of news. Latest updates at 2:30PM ET: CEASEFIRE UNDER THREAT: The truce between the United States and Iran was in doubt this morning following Israel's deadly new attacks on Lebanon. Iran said the strikes, which killed hundreds, wer...

dan_s

Surge will provide more details when they release Q1 results. If WTI stays over $80/bbl, Surge will have more than enough free cash flow to accelerate their drilling program. If not, they will aggressively buy back stock. Either will increase the equity value.

dan_s

Despite the ceasefire, which is conditional on the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran continues to keep control of the vessel flows and controls who can and cannot transit the chokepoint. Shipowners and shipping lines continue to wait for details and clarity about security guarantees before at...

dan_s

Brent Crude is expected to average above $100 per barrel this year if the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly shut to tanker traffic for another month, Goldman Sachs analysts said on Thursday. “We continue to see the risks to our price forecast as skewed to the upside,” the U.S. investment bank said in ...

dan_s

From BBC: Over 3,000 people killed in Iran since start of war, local media reports published at 08:35AM ET Iranian media, citing the country's Forensic Medicine Organization chief Abbas Masjedi Arani, is reporting that more than 3,000 people have been killed in Iran since the conflict began on 28 Fe...

dan_s

Trading Economics: WTI crude futures jumped more than 3% toward $98 per barrel on Thursday in London ( at $98.60 when I posted this ), recovering part of the prior session’s losses as renewed Israeli strikes on Lebanon raised doubts about the durability of a fragile Middle East ceasefire, while the ...

dan_s

PS: The price of oil will probably go over $125/bbl soon after the ceasefire ends. I expect Trump's next move is to take control of Kharg Island. WTI crude futures jumped more than 2.5% to over $97.50 per barrel on Thursday after the markets closed, recovering part of the prior session’s losses as ...

dan_s

This war is FAR FROM OVER. I recommend that you all read the analysis below very carefully . Iran's "Ten Point Plan" is a joke. No way is Trump going to accept their terms. The best that will happen is a lot of fully loaded oil tankers can get out of the Persian Gulf. It will have a short...

dan_s

AI CoPilot Search this morning. April 8. WTI crude oil is currently trading around $94.39/bbl on NYMEX, up from earlier in the day’s range of about $91.11–$109.00 www.oilpriceapi.com+1. This is above the $90/bbl threshold you mentioned, so the scenario where Peter’s sensitivity at $90/bbl still show...

dan_s

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the U.S. is pushing Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without tolls amid reporting that Tehran wants to charge for passage through the strait. Leavitt said the U.S. wants the strait opened "without limitation, including tolls." Trump told...

dan_s

Ceasefire not off to a good start: Vice President JD Vance will be leading in-person peace talks in Pakistan this weekend, the White House said, as the United States’ ceasefire with Iran faced tests over Israeli attacks on Lebanon and the Strait of Hormuz. Vance will be accompanied by U.S. envoy St...

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Iranian media reported oil tanker traffic through the key waterway was stopped after Israel attacked Lebanon. From CNN: Here's the latest • Strait of Hormuz: As a fragile ceasefire takes effect, the White House said Iran has given assurances that it is allowing ships to pass through the crucial wate...

dan_s

Next week I will need to update all of my forecast valuation models using new oil prices. If I had to update the oil prices today, they would be $95 in Q2, $85 in Q3 and $75 in Q4 and 2027.

Actual oil and gas prices in Q1 exceeded what was used in my forecasts.

dan_s

At the time of this post 12:26 ET the price of oil has come up to $95.25/bbl WTI crude oil futures tumbled more than 15% to below $93 per barrel on Wednesday after President Donald Trump postponed his threat to strike Iranian civilian infrastructure by two weeks, describing the move as part of a “d...

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