Energy Prospectus

dan_s

There will be big daily swings in the U.S. natural gas futures market. JAN26 is the gas price you see. The U.S. natural gas market is going to go from a surplus to a deficit to the 5-year average very soon. Hang tough and keep in mind that my forecast/valuation models are based on HH natural gas av...

dan_s

HIGHLIGHTS NOG to partner with Infinity Natural Resources (“Infinity”) to purchase the Ohio Utica assets (the “Utica Assets”) of Antero Resources Corporation and Antero Midstream Corporation (collectively, “Antero”) , for a combined unadjusted purchase price of $1.2 billion in cash (the “Purchase Pr...

dan_s

For NOG this deal adds a lot of high-quality "Running Room" in one of America's most valuable natural gas plays. ------------------------ Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE: NOG) (the “Company” or “NOG”) today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire a 49% stake ...

dan_s

As of 30 November 2025, EU natural gas storage levels had fallen to 75.35%, compared with 82.8% at the end of October, reflecting the intense start to the 2025–2026 heating season (which usually begins in late October). At this point, inventories now sit below the five-year average . Here's the good...

dan_s

Crescent has announced six asset sales exceeding $900 million year-to-date. The Company has recently closed its previously announced conventional Rockies and Barnett divestitures and expects the remainder of its announced non-core asset sales to close before year-end. Proceeds from these transaction...

dan_s

84 years ago in 1941, Japan attacked the U.S. navy base at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii getting America into World War II. Shortly after the war started my father at the age of 16 took a job on a truck assembly line in St. Louis. At the age of 18 he joined the navy. In less than a year the war was over. His...

dan_s

EPG members are invited to attend a luncheon on Wednesday, December 10 in Dallas at Ocean Prime. This luncheon is also open to non-members, so invite a friend to join you. Luncheon: 12 Noon Ocean Prime 2101 Cedar Springs Rd. Dallas, TX 75201 Register here > contact@goalcapital.net and just tell Dann...

dan_s

Based on the current CelsiusEnergy forecast at this link: https://www.celsiusenergy.net/ on December 26th the surplus to the 5-year average will be down to 11 Bcf. So, my WAG a month ago that the 5-year surplus would be wiped out by year-end is now looking like a good guess. My new WAG is that Ngas ...

dan_s

Propane price up 14.8% in the month, which is very good news for AR, EQT and RRC.

CRGY + VTLE merger and SM + CIVI merger look much better with higher natural gas and NGL prices. CRGY and SM still trade at less than 50% of my valuations.

dan_s

I see that the JAN26 NYMEX futures contract closed at $5.337/MMBtu on Friday. This is all weather driven as Miss La Nina is going to send several major winter storms through the Great Lake region, which is the area that draws the most natural gas from storage for space heating. Also, look for well f...

dan_s

If Russian or Venezuelan oil exports are curtailed in 2026, oil price will rise.

dan_s

Articles by Dr. Anas Alhajji that debunk the IEA's False Paradigm Related Links: Oil Inventories Flash Red: Crude, Gasoline, Distillates – All Critically Low Brazil Shatters Crude Export Records in October: A Short Note The Hype of Oil on Water Oil Market Update: Debunking the Bearish Narrative US C...

dan_s

Addressing The Elephant In The Room - Where The Hell Is The Oil Surplus? HFI Research on December 5 Q4 2025 is coming to a close soon, and there’s one thing all oil market participants must acknowledge: this quarter was not as oversupplied as initially thought. As a matter of fact, and let me be blu...

dan_s

I emailed you the slide deck that Don spoke from. It should also be available on the Hemisphere website.

We are in Nassau today, so I will be out until late this afternoon.

dan_s

A cold start to winter and record liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows have helped drive a strong rally in prices since mid-October, said analysts at Morgan Stanley, seeing further upside ahead. At 08:55 ET (13:55 GMT), natural gas prices fell 0.5% to $4.968 per million British thermal units, or MMBtu,...

dan_s

My current valuation of REPX is $42/share.

With improved balance sheet, my valuation multiple should increase.

dan_s

Working gas in storage was 3,923 Bcf as of Friday, November 28, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 12 Bcf from the previous week. < At least the next three weekly draws will be triple digits. Stocks were 18 Bcf less than last year at this time and 191 Bcf above the f...

dan_s

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-international-energy-agency-gets-realistic/ar-AA1REHPH

dan_s

I was not able to attend the luncheon. All I know is that there has yet to be any response from the polymer flood at Marsden. Send me an email and I will send you the slide deck that Don Simmons spoke from on Tuesday.

dmsteffens@comcast.net

dan_s

Doug Bartole, InPlay's CEO will be speaking at our Houston luncheon on Tuesday, December 9th. I will be opening with an update on my view of the oil & gas markets. You can register for the luncheon on the EPG website and guests are welcome to attend. Just email Sabrina at energyprospectus@gmail....

dan_s

The NYMEX front-month natural gas contract is testing $5.00/MMBtu as weather forecasts point to the highest December heating demand in 15 years. After maintaining a triple-digit storage surplus to five-year normals since May, natural gas inventories may plunge to a triple-digit deficit to open Janua...

dan_s

WTI oil futures rose to $59.10 per barrel on Wednesday, as attacks on Russian energy assets weighed against the lingering view of an oversupplied market. Risk on the supply of Russian oil and fuel prevailed after strikes on Russian tankers and oil refineries, with the Kremlin threatening retaliation...

dan_s

If you can find the "GLUT" of oil in this week's report, please let me know. Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending November 28, 2025 U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day during the week ending November 28, 2025, which was 433 thousand barrels...

dan_s

See how large the draws from storage are expected to be here > https://www.celsiusenergy.net/

Each time I check this website the estimated draws increase.

Hang on to your Gassers!

dan_s

https://nypost.com/2025/12/01/us-news/northeast-set-to-be-blasted-by-most-extreme-cold-on-earth-before-christmas/?utm_campaign=iphone_nyp&utm_source=mail_app

dan_s

US natural gas futures climbed above $4.85/MMBtu at the start of December, the highest level in three years, and extending a more than 15% gain for November. Cold weather continues to boost demand, with intense cold expected across the Northeast and Great Lakes from December 3–7. Forecasts also poin...

dan_s

The perception of a glut is already so pervasive that there seems to be few who question it. Not only this, but the glut keeps getting revised higher and higher. Per the International Energy Agency’s latest, the supply overhang in crude oil could top the record-smashing 4 million barrels daily next ...

dan_s

Watch the Saturday Summary here: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/ All of his forecasting tools now say that the entire month of December will stay much colder than normal AND he thinks it will stay colder than normal in January. EIA's natural gas storage report will show a big draw for the week ...

dan_s

On the morning of November 29th CelsiusEnergy's forecast is that draws from storage during the four weeks ending December 19 will total 427 Bcf, which will reduce the natural gas storage surplus by 89 Bcf to 71 Bcf. I expect the storage surplus to be gone early in January. 2026 is going to be a very...

dan_s

One AI Data Center has already sign a gas supply contract with Pine Cliff Energy . The Data Center will be built in one of Pine Cliff's gas fields. Pine Cliff is hoping to get more supply contracts with AI Data Centers. --------------------------- News from Calgary: Alberta bill to prioritize AI dat...

dan_s

I hope all of you had a Happy Thanksgiving. I spent about 2 hours yesterday putting up Christmas decorations and then 4 hours yesterday finishing my November weather. Susan then allowed me to "take off early" so that I could watch the Dallas Cowboys beat the Kansas City Chief. I am not a C...

dan_s

and a second winter storm coming the middle of the week.

This is VERY BULLISH for natural gas demand: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=czGY3YLbGvU

dan_s

BTE.TO is trading at $4.53Cdn this morning, just below my current valuation of $4.60Cdn. My valuation is based on just 4X annualized operating cash flow per share. Once the sale closes and Baytex provides more detailed guidance, my valuation multiple will increase if their guidance confirms my mode...

dan_s

"Despite the increases in crude and products inventories, US inventories remain low, with crude and distillate inventories near the bottom of the 5-year range while gasoline inventories remain below the 5-year range. Cushing inventories are near the minimum operating level (tanks are empty) . ...

dan_s

Comments below are from Keith Kohl: Looking at the macro picture, Diamondback’s CEO told us that the company has hit a holding pattern. In other words, the goal for the company right now is to keep its oil volumes relatively flat, and seek to grow its per share metrics through a reduced share count;...

dan_s

Base on this 10-Day forecast > https://weather.com/maps/tendayforecast We could see well freeze offs in the Williston Basin in North Dakota, the Powder River Basin in Wyoming, the DJ Basin in Colorado, and Appalachia in Ohio & Pennsylvania in a few days. If natural gas production is shut-in for ...

dan_s

Working gas in storage was 3,935 Bcf as of Friday, November 21, 2025, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 11 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 32 Bcf less than last year at this time and 160 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,775 Bcf. At 3,935 Bcf, total working gas...

dan_s

Keep in mind that the global oil market is HUGE. Demand is over 105 million barrels per day.

Also, OPEC (Saudi Arabia) will not sit back and allow oil prices to drop much further from where they are today.

dan_s

Trading Economics WTI Oil US crude futures were little changed around $58 per barrel on Wednesday, hovering near one-month lows, as expectations of rising supply weighed on prices. > Growing optimism over a potential Ukrainian peace agreement which could ease restrictions on Russian oil, added to th...

dan_s

We will be publishing updated profiles on CTRA, KEGI and SDE.TO today. They are already available on the EPG website.

dan_s

Current share price is $24.92 Dividends are $0.25/Quarter, so annualized yield is ~4%. APA is up 9.8% YTD, but as recently as September, 2023 the stock was $20 higher at over $44/share. Keep in mind that APA's realized prices in 2023 were $77.86/bbl of oil, $1.88/mcf of natural gas, and $22.79/bbl o...

dan_s

I will probably be putting APA back into the Sweet 16 in December to replace Civitas (CIVI), which is going to merge into SM Energy (SM). The merger will make SM the 5th largest independent upstream oil & gas company. Harry does not like the merger, but we both think SM has a lot of upside for u...

dan_s

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending November 21, 2025 U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.4 million barrels per day during the week ending November 21, 2025, which was 211 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 92.3% of their op...

dan_s

I agree. The only explanation for the current share price is the overall bearishness in the market about oil prices. Kolibri is a one asset company, the Tishomingo Field in Central Oklahoma. It is a VERY VALUABLE asset. Just in the Caney zone there are ~100 drilling locations. Recent horizontal well...

dan_s

You can read the full G&R Q3 report here: https://www.gorozen.com/commentaries/2025-q3

dan_s

Note below is from the Goehring & Rozencwajg with my comments in blue . Natural Resource Market Commentary for Q3 2025 U.S. natural gas remained weak in the third quarter, with Henry Hub prices falling nearly 5%. Forecasts from several prominent meteorology firms had called for an unusually hot ...

dan_s

As I posted here yesterday, the headline price of natural gas on Tuesday (Nov 25) was the DEC25 NYMEX contract price. That contract expired on Nov 25th, two days earlier than normal because of the Thanksgiving holiday. The Paper Traders, forced to close out their Long positions were "Price Take...

dan_s

Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates Q3 report can be accessed at the link below.

https://www.gorozen.com/commentaries/2025-q3

dan_s

I talked to one of the largest shareholders and he said the vote has no impact on Kolibri. The largest shareholder was just pissed that Wolf did not discuss it with them before announcing that they "might" issue more shares. They are not happy with how Wolf is developing the Tishomingo Fie...

dan_s

Note from HFI today. At HFI Research, we have been very bullish on natural gas since August 2024 when we published this “important” piece. Since then, natural gas equities have performed far better than the broader energy sector, and the HFIR Natural Gas Portfolio, launched in March, is up ~21%. < A...

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