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by dan_s
Mon May 20, 2024 4:49 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Crescent Energy (CRGY + SBOW) drawing more attention
Replies: 0
Views: 10

Crescent Energy (CRGY + SBOW) drawing more attention

I cannot stress enough how important it is that KKR is involved in this deal. NEW YORK (S&P Global Ratings) May 20, 2024-S&P Global Ratings today took the rating actions listed above. The outlook revision reflects Crescent's increased size and scale and lower pro forma cost structure. - U.S...
by dan_s
Mon May 20, 2024 4:42 pm
Forum: Picks and tips from the EP community
Topic: Watch List: Ero Copper (ERO) rising with the price of copper
Replies: 0
Views: 4

Watch List: Ero Copper (ERO) rising with the price of copper

Copper prices are up to over $5.10/pound, an all-time high. One of our members asked me for some ideas. Trading Economic update on copper: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/copper ERO has been drawing a lot of attention: "Thanks to promising estimate revisions, Ero Copper currently carries...
by dan_s
Mon May 20, 2024 4:18 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Sweet 16 Update - May 18
Replies: 3
Views: 281

Re: Sweet 16 Update - May 18

I'm not selling SBOW. TipRanks' price target is $16.25 for CRGY. When the deal closes, you will get 3.125 shares of CRGY for each SBOW share you own. 3.125 X $16.25 = $50.78 price target for SBOW CRGY also pays a nice dividend, so perfect holding for an IRA account. Post-closing CRGY will draw a lot...
by dan_s
Mon May 20, 2024 4:09 pm
Forum: Picks and tips from the EP community
Topic: Vital Energy
Replies: 1
Views: 45

Re: Vital Energy

The only negative that I see is that they don't pay dividends.
> Strong production growth the last two quarters.
> Very good new well reports
> Rising ngas price should push Q2 results above my forecast. 97% of their oil is hedged, so
by dan_s
Sat May 18, 2024 6:50 pm
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: May Newsletter
Replies: 0
Views: 83

May Newsletter

My plan is to publish my next newsletter on May 28, the day after Memorial Day. Prior to the newsletter I hope to publish all remaining Sweet 16 profile updates. > Vital Energy (VTLE) will be published on May 20th. > BTE, SM and TALO are ready for my final review. > In progress are EOG, OVV, PR and ...
by dan_s
Sat May 18, 2024 6:16 pm
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: Tornados in Houston Area - late on May 16
Replies: 2
Views: 110

Re: Tornados in Houston Area - late on May 16

Thanks. I am going to use some quotes from that article in my presentation at a conference in Dallas on Sunday. It is the Mick Law Energy & Global Alts Symposium, May 19-21. I will be speaking at the Marriott at Legacy Town Center in Plano at 3:00PM on Sunday. I will be available after 7:00 if a...
by dan_s
Sat May 18, 2024 2:51 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Sweet 16 Update - May 18
Replies: 3
Views: 281

Re: Sweet 16 Update - May 18

Vital Energy (VTLE) closed on Friday at $49.53, which is less that 50% of my updated valuation of $105/share. My valuation is just 3.25 X annualized operating CFPS. 4X this year's operating cash flow of $27.60 is $110.40. TipRanks' CFPS share forecasts are $28.58 for 2024 and $30.55 for 2025. < Trui...
by dan_s
Sat May 18, 2024 2:04 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Crescent Energy (CRGY + SBOW) Price Target raised to $17
Replies: 1
Views: 121

Re: Crescent Energy (CRGY + SBOW) Price Target raised to $17

After looking closely at Raymond James post-closing forecasts for Crescent Energy, it appears that RJ is being overly conservative on their production forecasts for Q4 an all of 2025. Per TipRanks Neal Dingmann at Truist Financial also rated CRGY a BUY on 5/17, but TipRanks does not show Neal's pric...
by dan_s
Sat May 18, 2024 9:27 am
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Crescent Energy (CRGY + SBOW) Price Target raised to $17
Replies: 1
Views: 121

Crescent Energy (CRGY + SBOW) Price Target raised to $17

On May 17th Raymond James published their updated report on CRGY, which includes detailed analysis of the merger with SBOW. Conclusion: We view CRGY as undervalued compared to peers and reiterate our Strong Buy rating while increasing our target price to $17/share ($16/share previously). Send me an ...
by dan_s
Fri May 17, 2024 6:42 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Sweet 16 Update - May 18
Replies: 3
Views: 281

Sweet 16 Update - May 18

The Sweet 16 gained 0.75% during the week ending May 17. The portfolio is now up 12.46% YTD. The S&P 500 Index also had a good week, up 1.64% on hope that the Fed would actually lower interest rates this year. It is now up 10.81%. The rate of inflation may have declined, but there is no chance t...