Energy Prospectus

Leaps starting to be given away by underwater longs. Started scaling into Jan ‘25s today

Given the dismal production perhaps manufacturing a squeeze is easiest value creation. I own some from 48ish below book

https://bisoninterests.com/content/f/vi ... discounted

Thanks for these

Trading below book again probably worth a starter position

To be fair EOG puked their hedges at the highs. Hedging when everyone is bullish is generally a good idea

Notice mkt sold right off after initial pop. If they really needed to would it be a problem to get long 180k contracts across curve? Probably not

Suggesting puts/put spreads, a little late to the party

Hemisphere is my call option with no theta degradation that pays a dividend. Great find Dan. My first purchases were in .25-30 range and have continued to average up in small increments

you are going to want to focus on liquid momentum which means AR/CRK. Selling put spreads to fund right tail can offset some cost

There is very little hedging for the larger shale co's in '23 and that's a little concerning. It's a little like how the options thread popped up right at the top for Sweet 16/XOP.

Thanks Dan. I'm going to buy some back here

Good spot to cover premium sold and look at risk reversals

Dan in a bear market they come for every last pocket of green P&L. We certainly had a lot of fast money in the space of late. It seems like the energy sector has finally had it's Atlas Shrugged moment and deep pullbacks are welcomed

Getting closer to common and/or right tail adds

Dan can you comment on what % of production is hedged for 22 23 24

-trying to understand across all acquisitions what % is hedged

A lot of the sweet sixteen have low open interest and extremely high implied vols. At this point in the bull run you're likely better off buying common in Dan's high conviction names imho. There was a time last summer where you could buy DVN Jan '23 35s around $2

Thanks Dan appreciate your updates and conviction. I started buying ESTE on the close friday. Hope it goes lower

Thanks Dan. Back in today

Thanks for the color Dan you've navigated these markets very well. The spike in OVX well above August levels surprised me

Spectacular calls on the equities and the products in August Dan. I have sold a small amount but holding bulk of EOG AR. I assume at this point your top picks are CRK ESTE? Any other co's you'd highlight

Thanks for color. As good as E&P performance was in Q1 and Q2 the physical products have been the superior trade

Dan, will this 20% drop affect frac spreads, rig count and psychology in November?

Thanks for taking the time to answer Dan. I picked up some some optionality in AR and EOG looked very cheap with a 62 handle. Open interest in WTI is very very low at this point

Dan any color as to your highest conviction picks? We should open at some very favorable levels for the elite 8

Dan, I've followed these guys for awhile and had a call with Adam Summer 2020. Any color on their 'the shales are in steep decline' hypothesis?

I've been waiting to buy back in and picked up EOG PXD into the close. While the market is forward looking I fail to see how these stocks can be so oversold with the CL curve and NG strip sitting where they are and no spike in oil vol (OVX)

How does the 75m/share offering affect LPI?

Dan I got very lucky with the timing here. I've been looking to deploy some cash raised over the last couple months and started buying SFY in size as it tanked in sync with crude on Friday. Now thanks to the Cramer squeeze I have a cushion that should give me the courage to hold it for a long time.