Search found 114 matches

by KGardiner
Wed Jun 30, 2021 6:04 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: CLR Unhedged
Replies: 6
Views: 1406

Re: CLR Unhedged

Thanks Dan!

I've been playing with the forecast/valuation spreadsheets for a while now, and find them relatively easy to use. However, it was unclear to me how to update the oil and gas prices to properly take into account hedges or regional differentials.

Kevin
by KGardiner
Wed Jun 30, 2021 3:57 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: CLR Unhedged
Replies: 6
Views: 1406

CLR Unhedged

Dan, a few days ago you made the following comment: If you are bullish on oil prices, Continental Resources (CLR) should be a "Core Holding" for you. None of CLR's oil is hedged after May 2021, so it is set up for a RECORD Q3 2021 with operating cash flow that could top $1Billion for the q...
by KGardiner
Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:05 am
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: lpi
Replies: 6
Views: 1679

Re: lpi

Will do, Thanks.
by KGardiner
Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:27 am
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: lpi
Replies: 6
Views: 1679

Re: lpi

One additional concern with LPI.
Morningstar in their May 12th analysis was concerned that Laredo has not learned their lesson on well spacing, and thus downgraded them from $57 to a fair value of $33.
by KGardiner
Thu Jun 03, 2021 7:52 am
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: lpi
Replies: 6
Views: 1679

Re: lpi

Follow up question. Laredo has an estimated PE of 2 using 2022 earnings estimate, and 5.5 using 2021 earnings. Is your favoring of XEC,CLR, OVV and PDCE more than LPI due to how far LPI has moved in the past 2 months? If so, I agree LPI is likely to have a pullback soon. However, over the next 2 yea...
by KGardiner
Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:57 am
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: lpi
Replies: 6
Views: 1679

Re: lpi

Dan, could you clarify what is implied by "My valuation of LPI is based on lower oil prices."

Does it mean due to hedges LPI has less upside as oil rises, relative to XEC, CLR, OVV and PDCE?
by KGardiner
Fri May 28, 2021 8:53 pm
Forum: The View from Houston
Topic: Shareholder Climate Actions
Replies: 2
Views: 715

Shareholder Climate Actions

Dan, in light of the recent shareholder actions against Schell, ExxonMobil and Chevron, how ho you think this will affect the short and medium term picture for the oil majors and the Sweet 16? Are these actions primarily targeted at the majors? Will this make the Sweet 16 more attractive? Thanks Kevin
by KGardiner
Tue May 25, 2021 4:40 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Cabot Cimarex Merger
Replies: 8
Views: 1930

Re: Cabot Cimarex Merger

Thanks Dan, cost savings on scale makes a lot of sense to me.
by KGardiner
Mon May 24, 2021 6:46 am
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Cabot Cimarex Merger
Replies: 8
Views: 1930

Cabot Cimarex Merger

Dan, What do you think of the XEC merger with Cabot, and what that means for existing XEC shareholders this year?
by KGardiner
Sun May 09, 2021 10:27 pm
Forum: Sweet 16 Portfolio
Topic: Laredo Petroleum (LPI) Update from Stifel - May 7
Replies: 4
Views: 1328

Re: Laredo Petroleum (LPI) Update from Stifel - May 7

Dan, when I look at Laredo's Assets vs Debt vs Net Book Value and Free Cash Flow, it seems to me they could pay down 30% of their debt this year. Am I understanding this correctly?
Thanks
Kevin