Energy Prospectus

I think the big issue with a lot of these smaller O&G names is that free cash flow is negligible. Op cash flow is great... but if they have to burn most of that to just stand still via capex, I think the market is saying show us you can generate real free cash flow. Not sure what changes the dyn...

Would be interesting to go back and look at what the Wall Street Gang said at the start of 2023 - from memory, most were in the $90-100 range... the only outlier I think was Citi, who I think were in the $75-80 range. I think at the time most of us (me for sure) didn't pay much attention to the Citi...

For Whitehaven/Yancoal I did the OTC's - limited volume, but I use limit orders and for these names, for me they are likely longish term holds, so I am not too concerned about the liquidity. Not ideal...

A good listen for anyone wanting to learn more on coal. Matt Warder is the Dan S of coal !!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iExcjU1Id4I

@ChuckGeb - you are welcome. Whitehaven is particularly interesting. Take a look at their 2022 results and the cash generated - at the time they were pretty much 100% thermal and really benefited from the run up in thermal pricing. They have used a chunk of this cash to buy Met coal assets being sol...

Thanks Mitchl. I have paired back my holdings a bit this year (basically taking profits from 2021 through mid 2022), but ultimately I am terrible at timing, so if I believe in the thesis, I am holding until my belief in the thesis changes. The dynamics between thermal and met are also of course very...

I have a number of coal holdings - both Met and Thermal. I am bullish coal in the medium term - very similar to Oil, the IEA produces an annual report forecasting that coal has peaked and will decline next year... but despite these claims being made each of the last 8-10 years, coal usage continues ...

The Doomberg piece got me thinking about some of my coal holdings - I have a couple of Auzzie thermal coal producers whose valuations are as depressed as the likes of SBOW and VTLE - the only difference being while the produce a lot of Op Cash Flow their Free cash flow is also very strong because ca...

Agreed @Chuck. I think stock price moves will not necessarily track U prices.... but there is definitely possibility of 2-3x current levels for the main ETF (URNM). I also like the set up here that, unlike oil, it seems that high prices won't necessarily quickly cure high prices, because U as an inp...

Good 1 hr 20 min discussion on Uranium - well worth a listen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IalMNKRly0&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email